Red Sox at Indians, 2007 ALCS Game Four

After a snooze-eriffic Game Three can the Red Sox halt the Indians’ drive towards the pennant, or to paraphrase that old 70s disco song, is there “Aint No Stopping Them Now?”

It’s scrunchy-faced Paul Byrd versus Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball that’s been rested for three weeks.  Wakefield on the mound means Jason Varitek’s bat- the only one that showed a sign of life for the Red Sox yesterday- takes a seat on the bench, and the defensively reliable yet offensively-challenged Doug Mirabelli takes a spot behind the plate.  Huge bonus for the Indians that Terry Francona decided not to start Josh Beckett on three day’s rest.  That also moves Coco Crisp up a spot in the line-up.  Will we see a start from Jacoby Ellsbury at all in this series?

Not to be outdone by the Red Sox starting Mirabelli, Eric Wedge cancels that edge by starting Victor Martinez at first, pushing Ryan Garko and his .333 average to the bench, and inserts Kelly Shoppach behind the plate.   Garko can step in as a very dangerous pinch-hitter if needed (as so can Varitek).  Casey Blake moves from ninth in the line-up to seventh, and Franklin Gutierrez starts in right.

C’mon Indians!  Win it for Lofton!

2007 AL Cy Young winner: should it be Beckett or Sabathia?

In one of the game threads after I stated that the LCS performances show that beckett is the deserved winner of the 2007 AL Cy Young, briktru posted:

I disagree that Beckett should win the Cy Young, which is not based on the postseason. Beckett and Sabathia have nearly identical numbers, except CC threw 40 more innings with those numbers.

The increased number of innings Sabathia had to shoulder is a good point to make, however you could also argue that bolsters Beckett’s case as he had similar numbers in fewer innings.   Also, throughout the season I questioned Beckett’s Cy-worthiness due to the incredible amount of run support from the Red Sox line-up that he benefited from.  Josh Beckett’s 20-win season- the first in the majors in two years- was obviously aided by the Red Sox scoring 6.42 runs per start with him.  Comapre that to the Indians scoring nearly a run and a half lower for Sabathia, averaging just 5.1 runs per start for C.C.

So, whose case does the run support stat help?  Sabathia, who had to labor and keep the Indians in close games, or Beckett, who shut down  the opponents early and often, and by turning the ball to the Red Sox’ dominant bullpen insured that nearly each one of his starts was a seven-inning affair?   The high run support beckett received may have lead to the decreased number of innings that briktru pointed out, as he could safely be pulled after seven innings.  Beckett also started fewer games- 30 to Sabathia’s 34 games started- and pitched past the fifth inning in all but five of them.  Granted, C.C. only failed to pitch past the fifth twice, but with his extra starts and innings, shouldn’t his numbers out distance Beckett’s rather than being equal?

Sabathia does have an edge on strikeouts (209 to 194) and ERA (3.21 to 3.27) over Beckett.   He also walked fewer batters in more innings pitched (37 in 241 innings versus 40 in 200).  However, by allowing 238 hits, C.C. averaged nearly a hit an inning, while with Beckett allowing 189 hits, he averaged less than a hit an inning, canceling out the handful of more walks allowed.  Also, Beckett picked up a decision in 90 percent of his starts- 27 out of 30, and winning 20 of them- while C.C. picked up a decision in 76% of his starts, winning 19 of them.  Of course, that fact may be a testament to the Indians’ overrated bullpen, and considering that Joe Borowski blew two saves of games  that would’ve otherwise have padded Sabathia’s totals, we may not even be having this discussion if the Indians’ bullpen hadn’t cost him matching Beckett’s percentage of decisions.

But saying Sabathia should lose his shot at the Cy Young due to poor performance by the Indian’s bullpen makes about as much sense as stating that Beckett doesn’t earn it due to his higher run support.  Surely there is way to gauge their value on the team by figuring out a way to measure their pitching independently from team-dependent factors as offense, bullpen, or fielding.  And perhaps that would be by replacing their numbers with a the numbers of a league-average pitcher, and see the result.

I don’t have the calculations to cite of what a league-average pitcher for the 2007 American League would be, but with a league ERA of 4.52, let’s say that Paul Byrd with his 4.59 ERA represents a close approximation of what a league-average pitcher would be.  Byrd was able to win 15 games thanks to Indians providing a 5.45 average in run support in his starts- a win total that would only go higher if Byrd was plugged into the Red Sox starting staff and received Beckett’s 6.00+ in run support.  Then again, the 4.52 ERA is nearly a run-and-a-third higher than Beckett’s so it would be presumed that with that ERA, despite the high run support, the league-average starter would be pulled earlier in games, and would not come sniffing 200 innings, much less compiling the low base runners allowed or high strikeout numbers that Beckett piled up.

The Cy Young Award is intended to recognize the most valuable pitcher to a team’s starting staff, much like the MVP is intended to recognize the most valuable addition to a team’s offense.   In some years, this pitcher may end up being the most valuable player in the league, but that’s a rare occasion.  In regards to being the most valuable pitcher on their respective staffs, I’m going to have to give the nod to Beckett.  And that’s only because C.C. shares a staff with another Cy Young candidate- Fausto Carmona- which is an example of how having two great pitchers on a staff diminishes the value provided by each one individually.

The Red Sox won their division this year for the first time in over a decade.  However, they weren’t able to overpower their opponents as in year’s past, due to down years from usual reliable standbys Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.  Instead, they were able to capture their first division title in a decade due to strong pitching- a strong first half from Daisuke Matsuzaka, a near no-hitter from Curt Schilling, and actual n0-hitter from Clay Buchholz, a dominant bullpen, and staff leader Josh Beckett.  However, replace Beckett with a league-average pitcher and I’d say this staff loses its leader, its heart, and it’s identity while the Red Sox lose the division.  If you take Sabathia out and replace him with a league-average pitcher, then you turn to rely on Fausto Carmona, who was thrust into a starting spot and proved that his long-sought ace potential has been realized.

So that’s the analysis of the Beckett versus Sabathia for Cy Young debate from a number of various perspectives.   I do believe that of the strong candidates in the American league this year- I bet J.J. Putz will even get a few votes-  these two will get the most first-place votes.  In the end, I will still have to side with Beckett, and that’s not including the amazing outings he’s provided so far in the postseason.