2008 Team Previews: Chicago Cubs

Take heart, Cubs fans. Your time is near.

Sure, the Cubs’ 2007 season ended ignobly when Lou Pinella pulled Carlos Zambrano after six innings in Game One of the Division Series for a Game Four that never arrived. Undoubtedly, that was a tactical mistake from the dugout. But such mistakes from Pinella are rare, and considering his long string of success- excepting Tampa Bay of course- having Pinella at the helm can only bring good things in the future to Chicago’s North Side. And the future is now.

The positive influence and intangibles Pinella has over the dugout was quite clear with the Cubs’ mid-season turn-around. On June 1, the Cubs were looking up at a 7.5 game deficit in the NL Central, with insipid play leaving them eight games below .500 with a 22-30 record. That was also the same day that Carlos Zambrano allowed seven runs on 13 hits to the Atlanta Braves and got into a shoving match with catcher Michael Barrett, who didn’t help matters much by committing an error and allowing a passed ball. By all accounts, the atmosphere in the Cubs’ dugout looked toxic, and despite a $300 million off-season make-over, the team was being signed off for yet another lower-division finish.

With such tension bubbling up from the dugout, it was little surprise that Lou Pinella lost his cool the next day and got tossed from the game, arguing a call that Angel Pagan was out. (He admitted afterwards that the umps had made the correct call.) The on-field tantrum could hardly be surprising. We are talking about Lou Pinella, after all, and I’m sure he was incredibly displeased to have the $300 million club he inherited playing so poorly.

But perhaps an unexpected result of Pinella’s outburst was the “rallying the troops” effect that it created. (It also didn’t hurt that Barrett was traded less than three weeks later, opening the door for prospect catcher Geovany Soto who went on to hit .389 in the month of September.) The Cubs played .572 ball the rest of the season, and spent the last month of the season jockeying for position in the National League Central before eventually winning the division by two games over the Brewers, leading to the team’s first post-season appearance since Dusty Baker’s first year as a manager in 2003.

So, what can the team do for an encore in 2008? After the spending spree in last year’s off season, what’s in store this off season? And do the Cubs need to make many moves at all?

The number of moves the Cubs need to make this off-season are not many. A left-handed bat needs to be found to off-set the righty-heavy line-up. To fill this need, the Cubs are pursuing Japanese slugger Kosuke Fukudome, who’s averaged 29 home runs and 96 RBIs while coming off a .351 2007 season in Japan. And now that Ryan Dempster is planning on moving into the Cubs’ rotation, the team needs to decide on who’s going to replace Dempster as closer. But that’s it. Last year’s heavy spending may have only resulted in 85 wins and a first-round playoff bow-out in 2007, but allowing a team with a new influx of players under a new manager a year to form their own identity is to be expected. And I see the dividends of last off season’s spending spree paying off in 2008.

The Cubs are also rumored to be in discussion with Hiroki Kuroda as well, despite the fact that Chicago has one of the deepest pitching rotations in the league. Carlos Zambrano has established himself as the ace and went 13-8 after the shoving match with Barrett to finish with a 18-13 record and a fifth-place finish in the Cy Young voting. Expect Big Z to be his usual dominating self next season. But the pitcher who I see stepping up in a big way and asserting himself as a dominating member of the starting rotation is Ted Lilly, who will begin to justify his four-year $40 million deal by approaching the 20-game winner form that’s been expected from him for a number of years.

Jason Marquis, one of the biggest enigmas in baseball, will continue to win games with mediocre stuff, and Rich Hill could easily put up 15 wins if he receives more run support than last season’s 3.42 runs per game. With 183 strikeouts in 195 innings last year- good enough for 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings- Hill appears to be developing into one of the league’s best strikeout pitchers. Next year we’ll find out what kind of numbers he could put up with in 200+ innings.

After this tough top four of the rotation, Dempster steps into to fill the spot vacated by free agent Steve Trachsel, who put up an ERA over 8.00 in four dismal starts down the stretch last season. The move of Dempster creates a battle for the closer’s role this spring training, with Bob Howry (who’s closed in the past), Carlos Marmol, and the recently re-signed Kerry Wood battling to fill the spot. Although groomed as a set-up man, with a dominating 2007 season that saw a 1.43 ERA over 69 innings, Marmol might be the best option the Cubs currently have to anchor the pen. Such a move might also help Marmol get over the heart-breaking home-run he gave up to Mark Reynolds leading off the seventh inning of Game One of the LDS against Arizona.

Pitching will be the Cubs’ main strength next season, helping to propel them over the rest of the division. As for the offense, it lives and breathes with lead-off batter and perennial MVP candidate Alfonso Soriano, who will continue to set the tone for the Cubs’ bats. Soriano ended the 2007 season with a .299 average, 33 home runs, and 70 RBIs and with his 19 stolen bases, he fell off the 40-40 pace he reached the year before with the Washington Nationals. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he sniffs 30-30 and tops .300 in 2008 while thrilling Cubs fans with some of the most exciting play in all of major league baseball.

Derek Lee may never approach the dominating MVP season he had in 2005 in which he made a run at the Triple Crown for most of the season. But he’s always good for 60-70 extra-base hits. And expect slugging third-baseman Aramis Ramirez to have a slugging average around .600.

But the jury’s out on some of the Cubs’ younger players. If allowed to play full time next season, Soto could hit .280 with the potential for 40 extra-base hits. Felix Pie is currently penciled in as the team’s starting center-fielder, and barring a signing of Fukudome, should be good for at least a dozen home runs and stolen bases even if he doesn’t put up a high average.

Two years ago, Matt Murton hit .297 with 13 home runs in 144 games. There is no reason he shouldn’t be able to approach those numbers if allowed to play the same number of games again. Speedy Ryan Theriot, despite a punchless bat that cancels out good strike-zone judgment, helps Soriano as a table-setter at the top of the order. And Daryle Ward, who hit .327 in part-time duty last season, could provide a good power and average mix if a Fukudome signing doesn’t keep him from a starting spot in right field.

It’s hard to believe that it’s been over 70 years since the Chciago Cubs had their last 100-victory season. But I could see the team topping the century mark in wins next year, and they’re my team to pick to represent the National League in the World Series with their first pennant since 1945. However, we are talking about the Cubs here, so I’m not going to go as far as saying they’re going to win a championship next season. But I do believe they’re in the beginnings of a good, if not potentially dominating, run.

M’s talk to Kuroda

It’s encouraging to see that the Seattle Mariners are spending this off-season addressing their biggest weakness, starting pitching, and avoiding the so-called ‘biggest names’ on the free-agent market- Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva- while doing so.  Instead of being held an economic hostage by Lohse or Silva, who poised to cash in big time on their mediocrity merely by being the benefit of having their contracts expire at the right time, the Mariners are in discussion with Japanese hurler Hiroki Kuroda, who opted out of his four-year $10 million contract with the Hiroshima Carp of the Japanese League.  By opting out of his contract, Kuroda becomes a free agent and, as such, interested major league teams don’t have to deal with the posting fee, inflating his value by $50 million just to talk to him.

Kuroda has won at least a dozen games for the Carp in four of the past seven years, with a high of 213 innings tossed in Japan’s shortened season baseball season in 2005.  Kuroda comes equipped with four pitches: a fastball; a slider; a forkball; and a “shuuto,” a fastball/sinker/slider combo.  While the Cubs are also interested in signing Kuroda, he is interested in playing on the Pacific Coast.  Due to the M’s ownership, they have better connections with Japan than any other major league organization, and would offer Kuroda the chance to play with such Japanese league All Stars as Ichiro and Kenji Johjima.

However, despite the M’s ability to sign and play a number of Japanese baseball stars, they have yet to insert a Japanese starting pitcher into their rotation.  And if the Mariners are successful in landing Kuroda, expectations should perhaps be slightly measured.  Results of Japanese starting pitchers making the translation to American major league baseball are mixed.

All though Hideo Nomo took the baseball world by storm as a rookie for the Dodgers, two more recent examples suggest a more measured approach for handling newly transplanted Japanese starting pitchers.  Despite winning 14 games as a rookie in 2002, Kazuhisa Ishii’s problems with wildness cut short his major-league career and he was out of American baseball four years later.  And of course, Daisuke Matsuzaka’s heralded arrival to the United States for $100 million dollars resulted in just 15 wins for the World Champion Boston Red Sox, as he faltered towards the end of the season.  Matsuzaka did eventually help clinch the pennant for Boston by taking the mound for the Red Sox in Game Seven of the ALCS.

If Kuroda becomes a freshly-minted Mariner starter, he should perhaps be placed in the #4 slot in the rotation, behind Felix Hernandez, Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn.  He should be monitored by the pitching coaches as they keep a strict pitch count on him, perhaps limiting him to no more than six innings a start the first two months of the season.  Lowered expectations may perhaps ease the transition for Kuroda to these shores, and a dozen wins could perhaps be coaxed out of him as Kuroda fills an essential spot on the M’s roster.

And it’s not as if the M’s have never had a Japanese pitcher make starts for them.  But let’s just hope that a possible Kuroda signing has better results than Mac Suzuki, who compiled a 1-4 record for the M’s from 1996-99, compiling a 8.87 ERA in 69 innings over 23 games, nine of which were starts.

2008 Team Previews: Boston Red Sox

Okay, here’s where I might ruffle some feathers.

By all accounts, the fan base for the Red Sox are passionate, devoted, and a little crazy.  They may also be just a tad bit defensive regarding their team, which can be evidenced by one Sox fan attacking me when I pointed out that World Series historical trends didn’t favor Boston prior to the Red Sox taking on the Rockies.  This fan must not have noticed that rooting for the Red Sox and proclaimed my hatred for the Rockies.  Somehow me pointing out that Wild Card teams had been awfully successful at winning championships this decade was perceived as a slight against the Red Sox.  And so I was on the receiving end of a profanity-laced stream of invectiveness.

The lesson learned is that anything short of saying “The Red Sox are the greatest team ever and will win the World Series for the next ten years” will be enough to upset your average Sox fan.  So I’m treading on dangerous water here with this analysis of the Red Sox.

The conventional wisdom regarding the Red Sox practically mirrors the above statement of handing the next ten championships to the Sox.  The team, led by a genius in the front office named Theo Epstein, has compiled an immaculate collection of mostly-young talent, with some veteran leadership mixed in and as such will be the dominant force in basbeall for decades to come.

I’m going to challenge this conventional wisdom.  Not because the operating guideline of the franchise hasn’t proven to be successful- it has.  With two World Series titles in four years, the Red Sox can claim to be the team of the decade, if they are still short of a dynasty.  But the philosophy of surrounding young talent with veteran guidance has proven to be so successful that it has been adopted by pretty much every other team in baseball.

The proclivity of offering up prospects in exchange for a front-line veteran player- teams exchanging the future for the chance to win now- has tapered off drastically over the last few years.  Teams are much more inclined to keep a hold of their young players, signing a core nucleus of teammates through their arbitration years as they mesh while playing together throughout organizations’ minor league systems.  An example of this philosophy at work would be no further than the team on the other side of the diamond against the Red Sox in the World Series, as the Rockies surrounded a young core of Tulowitzki-Atkins-Hawpe with players who have established themsleves over the past few years, such as Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, and Jeff Francis.

The youth of some key Red Sox is an attribute often cited by fans and pundits as a reason to explain the team’s potential for long-term dominance.  However, it should be pointed out since the team of geriatrics that the Arizona Diamondbacks trotted out to win the World Series in 2001, the Red Sox have had the two oldest teams by means of average age of the key position players since then.  (The average age of the past year’s players was 30.4, while the 2004 team averaged 30.6 years.  The D-Backs average was nearly 34 years.)  Rotating wonderkid Jacoby Ellsbury in center instead of Coco Crisp- the team that played the last game of the World Series rather than the team that got them there- drops the age to exactly 30 points, which would rank just below the Cardinals’ 30.25 average age in 2006.

So, a trend so far this decade shows that a relatively younger team wins championships.  As a result, teams are stockpiling young talent and suffering the growing pains involved, which may include a tendency to strike out (as in 27- year old Ryan Howard’s case) or an iron glove on the field (as in 23-year old Ryan Braun’s case).  These growing pains have proved to neither cost the team a chance to win or the player a shot at winning individual awards.

Red Sox fans will quickly point out the young nucleus that Boston is developing, with most of it in perhaps the one area that arguably may matter the most- on the pitching staff.  They point out last summer’s no-hitter tossed by 22-year old Clay Buchholz- in only his second career start- and salivate at the upcoming seasons of dominance.  However, recent examples of rookies tossing no-hitters include a couple of St. Louis hurlers- lefty Bud Smith in 2001 and right-hander Jose Jimenez in 1999- neither of which continued to have a lasting streak of dominance in the majors.

Still, the talented young players the Red Sox currently retain for the next number of years may amount to an embarrassment of riches.  But for fans of an organization well-versed in the continual disappointment of young, heralded prospects- one of the most popular Red Sox fan clubs bills itself as “The Son of Sam Horn,” taking an almost perverse enjoyment in one of the greatest prospect flops of all-time- I would be wary of relying on such young talent.  Rather than an embarrassment of riches, these young mostly unproven players could potentially prove to be embarrassing, forcing the Red Sox to re-consider their long-term plans.

For example, Dustin Pedroia laid claim to the Rookie of the Year award this past season, despite having offensive numbers inferior to the Devil Rays’  Delmon Young, who had the best power numbers for  rookie finishing in the top two in balloting since Hideki Matsui in 2003.  There’s something to be said about Pedroia rebounding from his horrid start (batting just .172 at the first of May) and at a size more suitable for being a shoeshine boy rather than that of a major league ballplayer, but Pedroia’s season looks suspiciously like that of another recent Red Sox infielder, Tim Naehring’s 1995 season.  Granted, Pedroia’s 49-to-42 walks-to-strikeouts ratio is encouraging, but what’s the use of having a good knowledge of the strike zone if you have an obviously punchless bat?  Pedroia didn’t make Baseball Prospectus’s list of Top 100 prospects for 2007, showing how much low expectations he over came to a starting position on a World Series team and the eventual ROY hardware.  However, how do we know that Pedroia’s Rookie of the Year season portends for good things to come rather than the second coming of Tim Naehring?

The rest of Boston’s young core are not nearly as suspect as Pedroia.  Kevin Youkilis can almost be chalked up for a .300-20-100 season for the next decade or so.  Jacoby Ellsbury is another definite .300 hitter.  Buchholz’s staff partner, Jon Lester, has the stuff to win 20 games, perhaps even by next season and become the first dominant pitcher developed by this organization since Roger Clemens.  A 40-save season from Jonathan Papelbon should be considered automatic.  Manny Delcarmen has established himself as the dominating right-handed set-up option in the bullpen, complimenting left-hander Hideki Okajima.  Any sort of let-down from Delcarmen, however, may lead to a challenge to that set-up role by Buchholz.

The strength of this Red Sox team is its pitching, led by Josh Beckett’s “take no prisoners” competitive attitude.  Beckett had the numbers to win the Cy Young Award this past season, and by being the driving force for the rotation was my favorite to win it.  It had been four years since a Red Sox starter truly dominated the league, as Curt Schilling did in 2004 before setting the tone during that year’s postseason with his infamous “bloody sock” performance, just as Beckett set the tone this past postseason.  Beckett is backed by Daisuke Matsuzaka, who should be immeasurably better in 2007 and could be one of the league’s best strikeout pitchers, and Tim Wakefield, who is capable of riding his knuckleball to 17 wins as a #3 starter.  This starting rotation combined with the “Pirates” out in Boston’s bullpen, provide the team its hidden strength and give it it’s best shot to compete for the division and a chance to repeat for the title.

And this overabundance of young arms can perhaps benefit the Red Sox, as perhaps the biggest concern of mine for the team is the offense.  That’s perhaps an odd thing for me to say considering the team was third in the league in runs and slugging average, while also leading the league in walks for the third straight year.  However, despite his dominating postseason, Manny Ramirez easily had the worst offensive season of his career, and the Red Sox can absolutely not have a repeat performance as that provided little protection for David ‘Big Papi’ Ortiz in the line-up.  Despite compiling the highest batting and on-base averages of his career- and garnered the usual consideration for MVP- Papi provided fewer late-inning heroics than normal as he had the lowest numbers for a full season while playing for the Red Sox.

Mike Lowell picked up the offensive slack last season, which meant his re-signing to the Red Sox was absolutely necessary.  Luckily, Epstein and company in the front office managed to avoid opening up a gaping hole in the line-up when they re-upped Lowell to a three-year, $37.5 million deal.  Reportedly, Lowell had more money offered to him by the Yankees, who backed off when Alex Rodriguez got in touch with them.  Avoiding Lowell’s defection avoided major headaches for the Red Sox brain trust, who otherwise would’ve perhaps had to suck it in and deal some of their young arms to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera to plug in at third base.

A trade of arms for bats may still occur as the veteran leadership that the Red Sox have won their two World Series with are just getting, well, old.  At 36 years of age, Jason Varitek’s bat has lost the threat it once had as it hovers around a .400 slugging average.  Besides, how long can ‘Tek continue to crouch behind the plate as his body gets up there in age?  Julio Lugo disappointed in the first year of a four-year $36 million contract, and if he’s not moved, may be good for 20 stolen bases in his second year, if nothing else.  J.D. Drew also disappointed in the first-year of his five-year, $70-million deal with the Red Sox, and I wouldn’t expect much better in 2008 as Drew’s contract becomes an expensive albatross for the Red Sox.

In the final analysis, the Red Sox are just a year removed from a third-place finish, ending a streak of eight consecutive second-place finishes.  It’ll be interesting to see what moves the Red Sox decide to make this off-season, and if they’re willing to make move some players (such as Delcarmen, who has been identified as a potential closer by some teams) for key offensive help.  It may be hard to say about a team coming off a dominating World Series sweep- one in which their greatest strength, pitching, combined with their second greatest strength, scouting, to quickly knock off the Rockies.   The offense may just need some cosmetic changes to ensure an opportunity for the Red Sox to defend their title.  However, if Boston’s veterans are ineffective, leading to too much pressure for the team’s younger players, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team matches its 2006 third-place finish rather than challenging for a second consecutive title.

Now, I’ll let the invectiveness begin….

Hunter signs with the Angels

Aw crap.  Looks like Vladimir Guerrero will have some protection in the Angels’ line-up after all.

Of all the divisions for Torii Hunter- the top free-agent hitter available- to land in, he ended up in the American League West, signing a  five-year, $90 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.  I wonder if the Angels had been negotiating seriously with Hutner for some time, and with a deal seemingly imminent, allowed the opportunity for the Orlando-Cabrera-Jon Garland trade.

Hutner signing with the Angels was an unexpected development.  To begin with, they all ready had a freshly signed free-agent centerfielder in Gary Matthews Jr., who had just completed the first season of a five-year, $50 million contract.  Now it appears Matthews will serve time as a DH and also spell Garret Anderson and Guerrero in left and right fields.  (However, I wouldn’t be surprised if  Guerrero ends up seeing the most at-bats at DH as the Angels try to coax as many healthy at-bats from Vlad as they possibly can.)

Also, the Angels didn’t make an appearance on the short list of teams likely to sign Hunter, which initially had Hunter headed to the AL West by way of the Texas Rangers as they were the closest to Hunter’s Texas home; the Atlanta Braves, due to their large African-American population; and the Washington Nationals, where Hunter would be the cornerstone of the franchise, playing in front of another large African-American market.

Hunter exchanged the possibility of playing in front of large African-American crowds for a crowd comprised of a mix of Latino-Americans and Hollywood bigshots.  I guess $90 million is quite a convincing argumentfor Hunter to re-think his preferences about where to play.

Angels trade Cabrera for Garland

The off-season has just been a few weeks old, and the free agency period doesn’t officially start until today, but with yesterday’s swap of Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for Jon Garland, the Angels have officially made the silliest move of the off-season so far.

With a team starving for offense as much as the Angels are, for them to send Cabrera- coming off a season in which he established career highs in hits, runs, and average- in exchange for more of the team’s strong suit, pitching, makes little sense. Combining with lead-off man Chone Figgins, Cabrera helped set the table for Vladimir Guerrero, allowing Vlad to reach 100 RBIs despite not topping 30 home runs, the first season Vlad was unable to reach that mark in at least 150 games for hsi career.

The Angels better hope that Brandon Wood- who’s slugging average in the minors has decreased from .667 to .497 over the past three years- or Howie Kendrick, who did hit .322 in 88 games in Los Angeles, are ready to fill Cabrera’s shoes. They may be ready for major league service, but it might be too much to expect that the Angels’ offense will miss a beat, or even improve, with either one of these players filling Cabrera’s spot in the field and the line-up. Instead, the movement of Cabrera may be a sign that the Angels will be looking to be a major player for a big bat on the free agent market or in a trade, such as Miguel cabrera or Andruw Jones to complement Vladimir Guerrero’s offense.

But the addition of Jon Garland can only improve the team’s pitching staff, right? We are talking about a former All-Star who won 18 games in two consecutive seasons, after all. Well, it depends. Garland has never had over-powering, dominating stuff- as a careerK/9 IP rate of 4.8 and astrikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.6 attests- and so his chances for successare reliant on his team able to provide him with plenty of run support. And by subtracting Orland Cabrera, its doubtful as to wether the Angels’ line-up in its current incarnation to be able to provide that support.

My fianl analysis of this trade is that Cabrera will thrive in Chicago, building off the numbers he put up in 2007, while Garland will struggle to reach double-didigt wins. Mariners fans don’t need to be threatened by the Angels’ perceived “building up” with pitching talent that this trade initially comes across as….

Jimmy Rollins wins NL MVP award

The fierce anticipation over which capable candidate will claim the Senior League’s most valuable player award has been relieved with the announcement of Philadephia Phillies short-stop Jimmy Rollins claiming the hardware.  Collecting half of the 32 first-place votes, Rollins just barely edged out second-place finisher, Colorado Rockie outfielder Matt Holliday, by a 353-336 count.

That’s what a little pre-season boasting will get you, with Rollins laying claim that the Phillies will be the “team to beat” in the national league East, providing him an edge in an otherwise crowded vote for the league’s top player.  While that statement ultimately proved to be true- as the Phillies clinched the division on the last day of the season one game over the New York Mets- it’s too bad Rollins didn’t make any boastful claims about how the Phillies would fare in the playoffs, as they folded to the Cubs in three games.  Still, besides the boast, Rollins supported his record with 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, and 40 stolen bases.  His 139 runs and 88 extra-base hits set records for National League shortstops, while his 716 at-bats set a new major-league record.

A strong case could be made for Holliday, the Rockies’ team leader who took two legs of the triple crown, leading the league in batting average (.340) and RBIs (137), the third such player to do so in the National League in the last three years (following Andruw Jones and Ryan Howard).  Fielder, just twenty-three, mashed 50 home-runs and would’ve been the top favorite for the award if the Milwaukee Brewers’ late-season dive hadn’t cost the team their first playoff spot in a quarter-century.

But in the end, the award goes to the Phillies’ diminutive spark-plug of a shortstop, becoming the second Phillie in two years to win the award, following in Howard’s footsteps.  I guess what proves is that if there’s ever a crowded field of canddiates for an award, there’s always the ol’ relaiable stand-by, the East Coast bias, to propel one on top.

The handing out of this final award concludes the award season, coincidentally occurring on the same day that the free-agent season begins.  Meaning that instead of focusing on the season just prior attention can now be placed on the upcoming 2008 season….

2008 Team-by-team Preview: Baltimore Orioles

What can you say about the Baltimore Orioles?

Consider the fact that the last time the team had a winning season- ten years ago- there were no such things ipods or mp3s, Bill Clinton was still in the White House, LeAnn Rimes won the Grammy Award for best new artist (and sold at least 17 million records since then), and Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio created an epic love story on board the “Titanic”, spawning a number of box office records while doing so, not to mention an incredibly annoying Celine Dion song as well.

Yes, it’s been a long while since they’ve seen a winning ballclub in Baltimore.

That 1997 club had a still-productive Cal Ripken Jr., a fiery Roberto Alomar leading the clubhouse (and spitting in umpire’s faces), and a pitching staff with three 15-game winners. Since then, the once proud franchise of Earl Weaver, Frank and Brooks Robinson, and Jim Palmer, has suffered multiple ignominies: Rafael Palmeiro’s positive steroid result and subsequent acrimonious finger-pointing; Sammy Sosa dragging his broken body to a .221 average; Albert Belle; Sidney Ponson; Mike Hargrove.

It’s been a tough decade. Orioles fans in Baltimore deserve better. And so Andy MacPhail- who had successfully turned the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs into competitive winners on his watch- was brought on board to provide Baltimore fans with a winning, competitive team, following in the footsteps of his father, Hall of Fame executive Lee MacPhail, who ran the Orioles during the 1950s.
Imagine my reaction, then, when I read reports that the Orioles were considering trading left-handed ace Erik Bedard to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a package that included Dodger prospect Matt Kemp: “Here we go again.” Sure, with his promising 2007 season (.342 average, 10 home runs, and 10 stolen bases in 98 games) Kemp has the potential to be an immediate impact player on a major league roster. But considering the current value given upon pitching these days- especially dominating left-handed starters such as Erik Bedard- would a package centered around Kemp be equal in value, even if it included other Dodger prospects Jonathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw?

Considering that Bedard is signed through 2009, I’d argue that giving up on Bedard early would be far too foolish. Bedard could potentially be the most dominating pitcher in the league, if not all of baseball. It appears that MacPhail is attempting the prudent route of signing Bedard to an extension, which bodes the greatest chance for both the Orioles’ immediate and long-term success. As MacPahil says, “Young left-handed pitchers don’t grow on trees. Especially potentially dominating ones.” Besides, if it’s obvious that the Orioles have no choice except to trade Bedard, they better trade such a valuable commodity for some proven talent rather than a collection of potential talent (or potential duds) as the Dodgers are offering. Besides, considering that the Orioles are drafting fourth in next year’s MLB draft, there’s every good a chance that a major-league ready 23-year old toolsy outfielder is wating to be plucked from college and instantly placed in the Orioles’ outfield. With chances like that, it makes little sense to sacrifice such a dominating starting pitcher like Bedard.

Besides, a closer look at the horror show that is the rest of the Orioles’ rotation shows just how necessary Bedard is. If Daniel Cabrera becomes the team’s de facto ace, you can write this team all but out of contention. After a surprising rookie season (7-5, 3.70 ERA) Jeremy Guthrie should be able to closely match those results. Other than that, the young starting pitching talent- 24-year old Adam Loewen, 23-year old Hayden Penn- are still a year or so away from having an impact on the team’s starting rotation. The Orioles are also high on 25-year old Radhammes Liz, who can play an effective role in the starting rotation or as a set-up man (even possible closer) in a depleted bullpen. With the two favorite choices for closer- Chris Ray and Danys Baez- being sidelined by Tommy John surgery for the majority of 2008, the closer’s job is vacant in the Orioles’ bullpen. Unless the team lands Francisco Cordero- the top available free-agent closer now that Mariano Rivera is off the market- I could imagine a spirited competition in spring training for the closer’s job coming down to Jaime Walker, Chad Bradford and Liz. Walker is my favorite to start the 2008 season as closer, but anything’s possible.

The offense has a key nucleus that the team can build around during the off-season, either through free agent signings or with trades. Brian Roberts has established himself as the heart and soul of the Orioles’ offense, and he could be poised for his best season yet: 200 hits, .300 average, 50 stolen bases. If the Orioles end up somehow qualifying, then it’s not that much of a stretch that Roberts could be considered an MVP candidate. Though its been a few years since Kevin Millar has seen his power stroke, he’s my pick for an Oriole batter to have a surprise year in 2008, while Miguel Tejada- if he’s not traded- and future superstar Nick Markakis will both top .300. Of their offense, the Orioles also have many extra parts that they could shop around for possible pitching help either this off-season or even into the season, including Melvin Mora, Jay Payton, Aubrey Huff, and Jay Gibbons.

But ultimately, what the Orioles’ chances of competing comes down to is whether they’re able to keep Erik Bedard through 2008 or not. As long as they keep him, then I’m going to go out on a limb here and say I like the Orioles chances of shaking off the past decade of futility and actually finish above .500. Even if it’s by only a few games. 2008 will be the O’s taking the first cautious steps towards respectability under manager Dave Trembley.

A-Rod wins 2007 AL MVP award

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Alex Rodriguez won his third American League MVP today, picking up 26 first-place votes and 382 points to beat Detroit’s Magglio Ordonez, who was the runner-up with 258 points.

I would’ve liked to have seen more support for Ordonez, who picked up the remaining two first-place votes after having the best season of his caree, including a league-leading .367 average and a career-high 139 RBIs.  Of course, we are talking A-Rod here, who more than likely had the MVP locked up after hitting 14 home runs in his first 23 games, on his way to an eventual 54 home runs and a career-high 156 RBIs, gaudy totals even by A-Rod standards.  So there’s no taking anything away from A-Rod winning his second MVP award in three years, with all three MVPs coming since his last season with the Texas Rangers in 2003.  It’s hard to believe that A-Rod never took home that particular piece of hardware while playing with the Mariners.

The answer to the real mystery won’t be revealed until tomorrow’s announcement of the National League MVP winner.  Will it be Matt Holliday?  Jimmy Rollins?  Prince Fielder?  With so many qualified candidates, the anticipation is something fierce as one can only wonder who the baseball scribes will appoint as the best player in the Senior Circuit will be…

2008 Team-by-Team Preview: Atlanta Braves

In a perfect world, at the end of the 2008 season Frank Wren, the Atlanta Braves’ new general manager, would be hugging manager Bobby Cox on the field, tears running down their faces as they celebrate Cox’s twenty-third- and rumored final- season at the helm of the team with his second World Series win.

Sadly, this conclusion is out of reach for this Atlanta Braves team who were at one point the class of the division, but now struggle to compete with the upstart Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

The Atlanta Braves finished the 2007 season with 84 wins, and considering the few moves that the team needs to make, that seems like a  safe bet for where the team will end up at the end of 2008 as well.  Granted, the winter meetings and the free agent period have yet to begin, but the Braves have all ready been active so far this off-season, cutting ties to Andruw Jones, their center-fielder of the past decade, and wisely dealing shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers for pitchers Jair Jurrjens and outfield prospect Gorkys Hernandez.  These moves have freed up payroll, which enabled them to bring back Tom Glavine for a one-year swan song.  The Braves freed up even more cash with another wise move, dealing reliever Oscar Villareal to the Houston Astros for speedy outfield prospect Josh Anderson.

The results of these moves will be mixed.  Glavine, of course, is not quite the pitcher he was a decade ago, but he should still provide the Braves with at least a dozen wins in one final hurrah of his Hall of Fame career.   The Braves probably wouldn’t have dealt for Jurrjens if they didn’t plan on him filling a much-needed role in their pitching staff, but don’t be surprised if the 22-year old spends the majority of 2008 at AAA Richmond.  And, yes, Gorkys Hernandez may have hit .303 in 680 minor-league at-bats, but he’ll be lucky to reach AA Mississippi by the end of 2008.

Although the trade to the Braves has just been completed, all ready mlb.com lists Josh Anderson at the top of the team’s depth chart to be the starting center fielder next season.  It should be pointed out, however, that the 2007 Baseball Prospectus calls Anderson an “aspiring fifth outfielder type” whose blazing speed distracts from the fact that he doesn’t have any other skills.  If Anderson does indeed manage to become the starting center fielder out of spring training, he easily becomes the Braves’ most potent speed threat, capable of 40 stolen bases.  However, he does so at the expense of blocking a spot for Jordan Schafer, a toolsy Braves prospect who hit 74 extra-base hits at two stops at single-A ball in 2007, establishing himself as the Braves’ center fielder of the future.  Considering that Schafer will turn 21 in 2008, the future may still be a year or two away, allowing Anderson to be a perfect stop-gap.

Or perhaps one of the two can be slotted into left-field, as of the Braves’ starters going into next season, Matt Diaz raises the most questions for me.  Sure he batted .338 last season, in limited playing time with a small sample size of 358 at-bats.  Diaz has a .320 carer batting average in 307 games- averaging just 2.6 plate appearances per game.  His career walk to strikeout ratio of 33-to-136 gives testimony as to the doubts I have of Diaz being a full-time starter.  Left-handed hitting Willie Harris- who’s never delivered on the potential that his skills have hinted at- should get a good chunk of playing time in left-field, and could even claim the position as his own if Diaz is packaged for some bullpen help.

There’s always a chance that the Braves could make a trade or sign a free agent to fill Andruw Jones’ open slot in center field.  But any player they receive would have to be free of a long-term contract so as to avoid blocking the talent coming up through the pipeline.  There has been talk of the Braves making a deal for the Royals’ David Dejesus- who has three years remaining on his contract- or they could possibly sign Corey Patterson, who’s chronic under achievement prevents him from demanding much in a contract and whose speed is also needed by this sluggish offense.  More than likely, however, the Braves will stick with the youngsters they have available.

And this unwillingness to go for broke will cause them to fall just short of winning a division title for the third consecutive season.  The offensive core of this ball club is good, if not great- even at 36, Chipper Jones could still sniff 40 home runs and another MVP award; Brian McCann is setting the standard for a “slugging catcher” and should top last year’s 92 RBIs; and you can bank on a full 30-home run and 100-RBI season from Mark Teixeira, who becomes eligible for arbitration at the end of the year.  By trading Renteria, the shortstop position is handed to Yuni Escobar, who has the potential to be one of the most exciting Braves players for some time to come.  By 2009, Escobar and Anderson at the top of the Braves’ line-up will be giving a number of headaches to opposing managers and pitching staffs.

The pitching staff is anchored by Tim Hudson, who could potentially reach 18 wins for the first time since 2001 with the Oakland A’s.  Considering the wear that he’s put on his arms through his many years as a power pitcher, 41-year old John Smoltz may be waning in his effectiveness, and he may join Cox and Glavine riding into the sunset when his contract expires after the end of the 2008 season.  There’s a dearth of quality pitching in the league-average arms that remain- Chuck James,  Buddy Carlyle- which bodes ill for the team looking back on its glory days of a rotation  solidified by the trio of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz.

However, of all the pitchers available to find a slot in the rotation, I am most intruiged by Jo Jo Reyes, who as a hard-throwing lefty piled up 411 strikeouts in 419 minor league innings, with a 2.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Reyes may have struggled with his command in his brief taste in the major leagues in 2007, with a 27-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50 innings, but if he’s able to harness his skills and manage to pitch 170 innings, Reyes could conceivably reach 14 wins and 150 strikeouts as he becomes the Braves’ “Next Big Thing.”

Of course, Reyes’ skills may be more required in the righty-heavy bullpen, as lefty specialist Ron Mahay has filed for free agency, though the team is interested in bringing him back. The biggest question of the Braves’ bullpen is who should be the team’s closer, and all though conventional wisdom would hand that position to Rafael Soriano- who had nine saves after Bob Wickman was released last season- considering just how dominating Soriano has been as a set-up man, I’d argue that it makes more sense to keep him in that position and hand the closer role over to Mike Gonzalez, who’s closed before.  Providing, of course, that Gonzalez’s arm is fully recovered from injury.  Regardless, the Braves better hope they can re-sign Mahay as, besides Peter Moylan, no other Brave relievers fill me with confidence.

In the final analysis, 2008 looks to be a thrilling ride for Braves fans.  The team will be competitive, with its mix of young blood and old favorites making a charge at yet another division title for Bobby Cox to add to his collection.  In the end, the Braves will come up short, but the nucleus for a competitive post-Cox team will squarely be in place, and a bright future continues to be in store for the Atlanta Braves, regardless of who replaces Cox in the dugout.

2008 Team-by-Team Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Next Tuesday officially kicks off the free-agent season, in which teams can negotiate with available free-agents. Throughout the off-season I’m going to take a look at each team’s situation and chances heading into the 2008 season, fully aware that there are a number of developments to come that will have an effect on potential outcomes. Such changes- and the consequences they entail- will be duly noted when they occur.

Anyways, to begin with, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who somehow managed to win the division with the league’s lowest batting average (.250) while being outscored 20 more runs by opponents in 2007. Not only did the D’Backs win the division, but they finished with the best record in the league despite all their offensive shortcomings. Of which there were many, including their lead-off hitter, Chris Young, who had an on-base percentage below .300 (.295). The team’s clean-up hitter- Conor Jackson- finished with 60 RBIs. And an argument could be made that the most feared bat on the club is actually found on the pitching staff, with Micah Owings providing a 1.032 OPS, in a small sample size of just 60 at-bats.

With an offense like that, you would automatically assume that the team relied on dominating pitching and defense to finish with the league’s best record. Yet Arizona’s pedestrian 4.52 team ERA was good enough to tie for fifth in the league, exactly where the team’s .983 fielding mark ended up as well. In the end, the Diamondbacks dominated at no single aspect of the game, relying on an incredible amount of guile as well as a dominating bullpen bolstered by Jose Valverde’s league-leading 47 saves.

Despite all this, somehow from the dugout Smilin’ Silent Bob Melvin capably guided the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, sweeping the Cubs before eventually folding to the Colorado Rockies’ September juggernaut in the LCS. For his efforts to guide the Diamondbacks to an outcome that seemingly exceeded the team’s collective talents, Melvin was rewarded with the league’s Manager of the Year award.

Three years removed from a dreadful 111-loss season, the 2007 season has to be considered a success by Diamondback fans any way they look at it, even if they did come just short of the World Series. So it begs the question: what will the team do for an encore?

It’s hard to imagine the team’ continuing to win despite a woeful offense. Luck only lasts in your favor so long in baseball until you find that all the luck is on your opponents’ side. Being said, I have little to doubt that the Diamondbacks are in a pretty good position, and with little moves required will be right back to being a contender next season.

That’s not to suggest that Arizona’s offense will be one the most feared in the league next season- it won’t. But due to the core nucleus of young, talented players who will be building off their first real taste of major league experience in 2007, the offense won’t be nearly as bad in 2008 either. Veterans Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson (who will be playing in his final year before testing the free agent waters) will provide the veteran leadership to guide the youth movement that includes Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Mark Reynolds. All of these players have question marks and will undoubtedly have some growing pains next season, but all are also incredibly talented ballplayers, as they were able to show the country during the post-season. Drew’s .387 post-season batting average shows that the 24-year old shortstop was not fazed about competing in a high-pressure situation. Drew may still be a year or to away before his skills translate into the numbers he’s capable of putting up, but he’s a gamer and an exciting ballplayer that the Diamondbacks have at a key infield position.

One young player who showed that he didn’t need any more time but had, in fact, arrived was Chris Young, the team’s lead-off batter, who hit 32 home-runs and stole 27 bases as a rookie. Normally, those numbers would garner the Rookie of the Year award, in seasons in which Ryan Bruan or Troy Tulowitzki were not playing. However, with his .237 average and 141 strikeouts, it’s clear that despite his talents, Young hasn’t completely mastered the major-league strike zone. After coming close to a 30-30 season in 2007, I wouldn’t be surprised if Young’s numbers drop back a bit to the 20-20 range in 2008 as he still gets his feel for major league pitching. He is still perhaps the team’s biggest power threat, however.

The biggest questions I have for the Diamondbacks’ offense is what they’re going to do at third base, as well as in right field. Third base had been Chad Tracy’s spot for the past three years, but after going on the disabled list August 15, Mark Reynolds came from nowhere to hit .279 in 366 at-bats. Reynolds has the potential for pop as evidenced by his .495 slugging percentage even if he doesn’t hit for as high an average as Tracy. Considering that Tracy is signed for $8.5 million for the next two years (not counting options), he could be an attractive trade commodity for a team looking to fill a hole at third base. Such as Minnesota, for example, or Florida if they’re successful in moving Miguel Cabrera.

The other position that needs to be addressed is right-field, which was an open sore throughout 2007 when Carlos Quentin didn’t pan out. This should be remedied in 2008 when it’s handed over to Justin Upton, as expected, who I feel as a 20-year old will establish himself as one of the most exciting players in the league, a solid bat in the Diamondbacks’ line-up, and at the top of the short list for next year’s NL Rookie of the Year winner.

The main reason why I think the Diamondbacks will finish near the top of their division, if not retain their title, is because of their pitching staff. With Brandon Webb, the Diamondbacks’ staff has one of the most dominating pitchers in the league as its ace, which Webb demonstrated when he reeled off 42 consecutive scoreless innings in the middle of the summer. After coming in second in Cy Young voting a year after winning it, Webb has the talent and the skills to not only perhaps win the Cy Young back, but also will his team into the playoffs.

Doug Davis and Micah Owings are capable middle-of-the-staff starters, and after Owings’ break-out 2007 season, I think he will spend 2008 molding himself into a capable #2 starter. After these three however, the pitching staff gets kind of muddled. Enrique Gonzlez is around to fill the #5 slot, but the capable Livan Hernandez- who’s tossed 200 innings a year for the past decade- appears to be gone via free agency, instantly making himself one of the top starters available on the market. And there’s always Randy Johnson who despite being owed $10 million in 2008, unfortunately I find highly unlikely being a serious part of any team’s pitching staff from this point on. It’s perhaps time for Randy to remove his ailing back from the game and await his Hall of Fame induction in five years, which he is a shoo-in for despite coming short of 300 wins.

If the Diamondbacks are unable to translate Chad Tracy or Carlos Quentin into live arms that can be inserted in the rotation immediately then they better pursue a free agent pitcher who has experience in the division. Josh “The Dragon Slayer” Fogg, for example, or even perhaps Jeff Weaver. Rounding out that pitching staff is the most pressing need the team has this off season. The bullpen is in capable hands, with Valverde every bit able to reach 40 saves again in 2008.

In the final analysis, I see the D-Backs reaching the playoffs for a second consecutive season. But I think the promising offense is a year away from becoming a cohesive powerhouse. Until that happens, the offense will struggle in the post-season, as it did in the 2007 LCS. The D-Backs aren’t a championship team. Yet.