2008 Team-by-Team Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Next Tuesday officially kicks off the free-agent season, in which teams can negotiate with available free-agents. Throughout the off-season I’m going to take a look at each team’s situation and chances heading into the 2008 season, fully aware that there are a number of developments to come that will have an effect on potential outcomes. Such changes- and the consequences they entail- will be duly noted when they occur.

Anyways, to begin with, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who somehow managed to win the division with the league’s lowest batting average (.250) while being outscored 20 more runs by opponents in 2007. Not only did the D’Backs win the division, but they finished with the best record in the league despite all their offensive shortcomings. Of which there were many, including their lead-off hitter, Chris Young, who had an on-base percentage below .300 (.295). The team’s clean-up hitter- Conor Jackson- finished with 60 RBIs. And an argument could be made that the most feared bat on the club is actually found on the pitching staff, with Micah Owings providing a 1.032 OPS, in a small sample size of just 60 at-bats.

With an offense like that, you would automatically assume that the team relied on dominating pitching and defense to finish with the league’s best record. Yet Arizona’s pedestrian 4.52 team ERA was good enough to tie for fifth in the league, exactly where the team’s .983 fielding mark ended up as well. In the end, the Diamondbacks dominated at no single aspect of the game, relying on an incredible amount of guile as well as a dominating bullpen bolstered by Jose Valverde’s league-leading 47 saves.

Despite all this, somehow from the dugout Smilin’ Silent Bob Melvin capably guided the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, sweeping the Cubs before eventually folding to the Colorado Rockies’ September juggernaut in the LCS. For his efforts to guide the Diamondbacks to an outcome that seemingly exceeded the team’s collective talents, Melvin was rewarded with the league’s Manager of the Year award.

Three years removed from a dreadful 111-loss season, the 2007 season has to be considered a success by Diamondback fans any way they look at it, even if they did come just short of the World Series. So it begs the question: what will the team do for an encore?

It’s hard to imagine the team’ continuing to win despite a woeful offense. Luck only lasts in your favor so long in baseball until you find that all the luck is on your opponents’ side. Being said, I have little to doubt that the Diamondbacks are in a pretty good position, and with little moves required will be right back to being a contender next season.

That’s not to suggest that Arizona’s offense will be one the most feared in the league next season- it won’t. But due to the core nucleus of young, talented players who will be building off their first real taste of major league experience in 2007, the offense won’t be nearly as bad in 2008 either. Veterans Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson (who will be playing in his final year before testing the free agent waters) will provide the veteran leadership to guide the youth movement that includes Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Mark Reynolds. All of these players have question marks and will undoubtedly have some growing pains next season, but all are also incredibly talented ballplayers, as they were able to show the country during the post-season. Drew’s .387 post-season batting average shows that the 24-year old shortstop was not fazed about competing in a high-pressure situation. Drew may still be a year or to away before his skills translate into the numbers he’s capable of putting up, but he’s a gamer and an exciting ballplayer that the Diamondbacks have at a key infield position.

One young player who showed that he didn’t need any more time but had, in fact, arrived was Chris Young, the team’s lead-off batter, who hit 32 home-runs and stole 27 bases as a rookie. Normally, those numbers would garner the Rookie of the Year award, in seasons in which Ryan Bruan or Troy Tulowitzki were not playing. However, with his .237 average and 141 strikeouts, it’s clear that despite his talents, Young hasn’t completely mastered the major-league strike zone. After coming close to a 30-30 season in 2007, I wouldn’t be surprised if Young’s numbers drop back a bit to the 20-20 range in 2008 as he still gets his feel for major league pitching. He is still perhaps the team’s biggest power threat, however.

The biggest questions I have for the Diamondbacks’ offense is what they’re going to do at third base, as well as in right field. Third base had been Chad Tracy’s spot for the past three years, but after going on the disabled list August 15, Mark Reynolds came from nowhere to hit .279 in 366 at-bats. Reynolds has the potential for pop as evidenced by his .495 slugging percentage even if he doesn’t hit for as high an average as Tracy. Considering that Tracy is signed for $8.5 million for the next two years (not counting options), he could be an attractive trade commodity for a team looking to fill a hole at third base. Such as Minnesota, for example, or Florida if they’re successful in moving Miguel Cabrera.

The other position that needs to be addressed is right-field, which was an open sore throughout 2007 when Carlos Quentin didn’t pan out. This should be remedied in 2008 when it’s handed over to Justin Upton, as expected, who I feel as a 20-year old will establish himself as one of the most exciting players in the league, a solid bat in the Diamondbacks’ line-up, and at the top of the short list for next year’s NL Rookie of the Year winner.

The main reason why I think the Diamondbacks will finish near the top of their division, if not retain their title, is because of their pitching staff. With Brandon Webb, the Diamondbacks’ staff has one of the most dominating pitchers in the league as its ace, which Webb demonstrated when he reeled off 42 consecutive scoreless innings in the middle of the summer. After coming in second in Cy Young voting a year after winning it, Webb has the talent and the skills to not only perhaps win the Cy Young back, but also will his team into the playoffs.

Doug Davis and Micah Owings are capable middle-of-the-staff starters, and after Owings’ break-out 2007 season, I think he will spend 2008 molding himself into a capable #2 starter. After these three however, the pitching staff gets kind of muddled. Enrique Gonzlez is around to fill the #5 slot, but the capable Livan Hernandez- who’s tossed 200 innings a year for the past decade- appears to be gone via free agency, instantly making himself one of the top starters available on the market. And there’s always Randy Johnson who despite being owed $10 million in 2008, unfortunately I find highly unlikely being a serious part of any team’s pitching staff from this point on. It’s perhaps time for Randy to remove his ailing back from the game and await his Hall of Fame induction in five years, which he is a shoo-in for despite coming short of 300 wins.

If the Diamondbacks are unable to translate Chad Tracy or Carlos Quentin into live arms that can be inserted in the rotation immediately then they better pursue a free agent pitcher who has experience in the division. Josh “The Dragon Slayer” Fogg, for example, or even perhaps Jeff Weaver. Rounding out that pitching staff is the most pressing need the team has this off season. The bullpen is in capable hands, with Valverde every bit able to reach 40 saves again in 2008.

In the final analysis, I see the D-Backs reaching the playoffs for a second consecutive season. But I think the promising offense is a year away from becoming a cohesive powerhouse. Until that happens, the offense will struggle in the post-season, as it did in the 2007 LCS. The D-Backs aren’t a championship team. Yet.