2008 Preview: Chicago White Sox

My, how the mighty have fallen.

Just two years ago, the White Sox combined the league’s top-rated pitching staff and one of the best fielding clubs into the result of a World Series Championship, their first in 88 years.  After dropping to third place with a still-respectable 90 wins the following year, the White Sox bottomed out last season, riding a 12-th ranked league ERA to 72 wins, their worst win total since 1995.

It’s hard to pinpoint what, exactly, went wrong with this White Sox team.  Management made the prudent decision to re-sign the core of 2005’s championship team, granting long-term contracts to Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, A.J. Pierzynksi, and Jim Thome since then.  While it makes since to not monkey around with what breed success, considering that this core will only get older- Buehrle is the youngest, at 28- with the eventual attrition of playing skills, perhaps it would have been wiser for GM Kenny Williams to have let a few of these players walk, perhaps just bringing back Buehrle and Konerko to anchor the staff and the offense.  Sure, it may seem a little callous to not reward and recognize the efforts made by players to the organizations’ success, but having a number of bloated contracts owned by veterans blocking positions for younger players may have an inverse effect on the teams’ win total.  Which is what the White Sox discovered, when they battled the Kansas City Royals to avoid ending in last place in the division, narrowly besting the Royals by three wins.

Sure two of these players may have provided the only highlights of the White Sox’ 2007 season- Jim Thome becoming the first player to win a game with his 500th home run and Mark Buehrle tossing a brilliant no-hitter against the Brewers in June- its hard to look at the Sox going in with the relatively same cast of characters and have n optimistic feeling for 2008.

The White Sox have been relatively quiet this off-season, with a couple of below-the-radar moves to strengthen the line-up.  By dealing rotation mainstay Jon Garland to the Angels for Orlando Cabrera, the White Sox receive a dynamic middle infielder who is exponentially more talented than current shortstop fill-in Jose Uribe.  Cabrera had some solid seasons with the Montreal Expos, and finished in the Top 20 in the AL MVP voting last year.  After eleven seasons in the majors, it appears that his game is steadily improving, and I expect him to have  a strong season in 2008 providing a spark for an otherwise moribund ChiSox offense.

The White Sox also dealt  minor league first baseman Chris Carter to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Carlos Quentin, who went from being Arizona’s right-fielder of the future to being expendable in less than a year.  Quentin struggled with injuries in 2007, batting just .214 in 81 games, so its hazy to predict how he’ll do for the ChiSox in 2008.  Quentin did have a .313 average and a .527 slugging average in 379 games, so if he’s able to approach those levels in the White Sox line-up, it just might soothe the pain of the White Sox dealing young budding superstar Chris Young to Arizona.  As for Carter, considering that Konerko is manning first base the next three years for the White Sox, it makes since to deal the 20-year old prospect and his .905 Sally League OPS to the Diamondbacks, a team built on prospects but with a gaping hole at first.

The White Sox better hope that Quentin is fully recovered from his injuries and can provide something for this offense, because it sorely needs assistance.  Unless Kenny Williams is able to land another bat or two, Orlando Cabrera’s injection may not be enough.  Pierzynski, 30, is coming off his weakest year at the plate, compiling a .405 OPS in 2007.  Konerko had his poorest season since he bottomed out in 2003, but he’ll be less likely to have a huge rebound season at 32 than he did at 28.  Two years after winning the World Series MVP and one season after hitting 44 home runs and 120 RBI, Jermaine Dye hiot just .254 with 28 home runs and 72 RBI.  Jim Thome did hit 35 home runs, but at age 37 you have to wonder just how much gas he’s got left in the tank.

That’s not to say the ChiSox don’t have some promising youngsters who are making a case for themselves.  Former college football star Josh Fields was finally given some major league playing time at third base, and smacked 23 home runs while finishing in the Top 10 in Rookie of the year voting.  His power is legit and his slugging average should top .500 with regular playing time, even if he has some huge holes in his swing.  Field’s emergence poses a challenge to erstwhile third-base starter Joe Crede, who missed all but 29 games in 2007 due to back problems, yet won a Silver Slugger in his last full season manning the hot corner for the White Sox.  Crede has one year remaining on his contract, and he should be allowed to regain his position with the team, as the White Sox ponder whether to offer Crede a long-term contract before he can test the free-agent waters.  However, another option is to move Fields into left-field and fill the spot opened up by the team’s decision to designate former catalyst Scott Podsednik for assignment, and possibly have both the bats of Fields and Crede in the line-up.

A key situation the White Sox need to address is the second-base position.  It appears that the White Sox are set to hand over the position to 25-year old Danny Richar, who became the starter after last-season’s trade of Tadahito Iguchi, and hit .260 in the last month of the season to finish with a .230 batting average.  Richar was nowhere near the White Sox’ radar at the beginning of last season, so I don’t know how much they’re willing to experiment with him manning second.  If Richar falters, Juan Uribe- another White Sox batter with a ‘poppish’ bat and big holes in their swing- can take his place, but keep an eye on Andy Gonzalez.  The 26-year old may have hit just .185 in 189 at-bats last season, but he put up similar minor league numbers as Richar’s, and sometimes utility players that hang around a team’s 40-man roster are surprisingly product when least expected.

But the big mess for the White Sox is its pitching.  It’s incredible that the team’s ERA increased by over one run in the past two years, but in 2005 the staff led the league with a 3.61 thanks to commanding performances from  Buehrle, Garland, Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras.  Despite having four starters finishing with at least ten wins, the staff’s ERA was a mediocre 4.7, with Contreras, Gavin Floyd and John Danks combining on a 5.50 ERA in nearly 400 innings.

With his staff-leading 15 wins, Javier Vazquez proved to be the staff’s ace, and should follow it up with an equally strong 2008 season.  The trade of Garland- even though I don’t think he will help the Angels’ rotation much- still makes a weak White Sox pitching staff weaker.  Gavin Floyd was a Phillies prospect as a 21-year old who doesn’t seem to be panning out as a starter as a 25-year old.  If the White Sox decide to stash Floyd in the bullpen, maybe they could switch him out with David Aardsma, who went 10-3 as a minor league starter in 2005.  Aardsma may have put up a 6.40 ERA in 32 innings for the White Sox, but with  his 0.94 career strikeout-to-inning ratio (90 in 96 innings) there is raw stuff present with Aardsma that White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper might be able to harness.

Another low-level move the White Sox made was signing free-agent Scott Linebrink, who has been one of the league’s most sought-after set-up men.  After cutting his teeth setting up Trevor Hoffman in San Diego for the better part of five seasons, Linebrink comes to the Windy City to set up Bobby Jenks, who has staked an undeniable claim as one of the best closers in the league.  Between 2004 and 2006, Linebrink compiled a 24-8 record for a San Diego Padre team that was consistently competitive.  Don’t expect him to put up a similar record for a mediocre White Sox team.

If the White Sox are unable to reverse both the slides in pitching and offense, then another poor season awaits the South Side of Chicago.  After guiding the team to a second-place finish and then a World Championship in his first two years as manager, but having disappointing failures afterwards, White Sox fans may be getting tired of the Ozzie Guillen show and his tireless string of inane comments.  The Sox played second fiddle to the Cubs in 2007, and will do so again in 2008, leading to restless Southsiders.  Perhaps its time for a managerial change to be considered, once the Sox  again fail to reach 80 wins?