2008 Team previews: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are a perplexing team. With reliable 40-home run man Adam Dunn anchoring an explosive offense that has hit over 200 home runs in the past three years (and 194 in 2004), along with Aaron Harang, one of the league’s most dominating starting pitchers, anchoring the pitching staff, and it makes little sense why the team doesn’t compete on a regular basis.

Then you look at the club’s bullpen, and it all makes sense. Twenty-eight blown saves in 2007? Urgh. That’s more blown saves than the 26 saves Al Reyes had as Tampa Bay’s closer last year. The ineptitude of Cincinnati’s bullpen only tells half the story, as the overall pitching staff finished with a 4.94 ERA, tying with Florida for the worst in the league. Indeed, after Harang, the staff was comprised of misfits and unknowns, with the team’s supposed #2 starter, Bronson Arroyo, having a sharp drop-off in 2007, finishing with a 9-15 record and 4.23 ERA one year after a 14-11, 3.29 All-Star season in 2006.

So the story for the Reds is that they score a ton of runs, but end up giving those runs right back up. Usually at the tail-end of the games, leading, I’m sure, to a high number of peptic ulcers amongst Reds fans at Great American Ballpark. Indeed, if the Reds had succeeded in cutting that number of blown saves in half and added 14 more wins, they would’ve finished with 86 victories, and had squeezed out an NL Central title by one game.

So if the Reds are to compete in 2008, the focus on pitching needs to be a high priority. One theory that’s been posited about how to construct a team is to consider the converse of how the home ballpark’s factors favor pitching or hitting. If you play half your games in a park that favors hitting, as the Reds do in Great American, than you need to focus on compiling talented, high-skilled arms to compensate for the offensive lean of the park’s factors. Constructing a roster to “take advantage” of the park’s offensive advantages is not necessary, as the comfy confines of Great American will assist in boosting a park-neutral .475 slugging hitter into one with a slugging average around the .500 mark.

However, if the careful maintenance and development of the club’s pitching is imperative for it to compete next season, it may seem initially shocking that the Reds’ first big off-season move was to sign Dusty Baker to fill Pete Mackanin’s shoes in the dugout. While Baker has been a consistent winner as a manager- with nine first or second-place finishes in 14 years- he has also developed a reputation as a “killer of pitching staffs.” The numbers show that pitchers do, indeed, throw more pitches under Baker, about three per start or the equivalence of one extra start per year. Of course, Baker has been blessed with some pretty good pitchers as a manager, and it should be expected that better pitchers pitch more than league-average pitchers. While Baker’s reputation might be unfairly based on perception rather than facts, try to argue that with a Cubs’ fan who witnessed the implosion of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood under Baker’s watch.

So, other the signing of Baker to fill the managerial role may bring some question marks when it comes to ensuring an improved pitching staff in 2008, the second major move taken by the Reds’ directly addressed their biggest problem last season. By signing Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46 million contract, the Reds have ensured that a dominating, All-Star closer will anchor their bullpen for the foreseeable future, a big improvement over David Weathers, the 37-year old journeyman who still picked up 33 saves last season. While the Cordero signing seems like an obvious step towards legitimacy by the Reds, let’s not forget that Cordero had lost the closing job in the past, having been removed from that role while with the Rangers in 2006 after compiling 86 saves the prior two seasons in Arlington. The Reds might be wise to keep Weathers available to fill the closer’s role if needed, as well as righty Brad Salmon, who although just signed to a minor league contract, had a successful rookie campaign in 2007 and could have an expanded role in 2008 if he makes the club out of spring training.

Regardless if whether Cordero delivers on his contract or not as the team’s closer, the Reds will continue to score runs in droves in 2008. Adam Dunn is a near-automatic for 40+ home runs, and after setting a career high in RBIs with 106 last season, he should be given plenty of more opportunities to knock runners in in 2008. Especially with Brandon Phillips batting at the top of the line-up, with his combination of power and speed resulting in a 30-30 campaign in 2007 and I wouldn’t be surprised if Phillips sniffs a 40-40 season in 2008 as he cements himself as one of the best, if not the best, second basemen in the league. As for the veteran influence of the team, 37-year old Scot Hatteberg has had his two highest batting averages in his two seasons at Great American, and expect him to top .300 once again. And after bashing 30 home runs in 144 games, if Ken Griffey Jr., who turns 38 in April, is able to stay healthy in 2008 expect him to come close to 25 home runs and 100 RBIs.

But despite this strong offensive core, the Reds and their fans are really excited about their young upcoming batters. Challenging for playing time at first base will be 24-year old Joey Votto, who has slugged 22 home runs the past two years at Triple-A and who the Reds are very big on. He may not be quite ready for full playing time at the major league level, but expect him to exhibit some pop in whatever playing time he gets. After racking up a .290 average and 192 stolen bases in ten minor league seasons, Norris Hopper finally got a chance at regular playing time in the Reds’ outfield last year, batting .329 in 121 games. While Hopper may be buried in the team’s depth chart, he has shown that he will hit if given the opportunity to play.

But perhaps the young batter the Reds are most excited about is outfielder of the future Jay Bruce, who Cincinnati has wisely kept from any trade overtures. Although he scaled the ladder from single-A to triple-A at just 20 years of age, expect Bruce to spend the season down in Luisville, where he’ll display some prodigious skills at slapping extra-base hits all over the field. Bruce’s expected arrival in a year makes both Dunn and Griffey available, with Adam finishing out his 2008 option with the Reds while Griffey has a 2009 option remaining on his contract. Either one could be moved mid-season to make room for Bruce if the Reds fail to contend.

Which, despite the emergence of a dominating offense, may occur simply due to the Reds’ dearth of strong pitching arms, besides Harang who has the talent to be a 20-game winner with consistent offensive support. The signing of Cordero is a small band-aid that barely covers a seeping wound. The vanishing act pulled by Arroyo causes concern for 2008, and if the Reds’ rely on Matt Belisle- who had a 5.32 ERA in 177 innings in 2007- to be their #2 starter, then the Reds are going to be in a world of hurt. Starting pitching relief could be provided by Homer Bailey who, at the age of 21, could provide a nucleus for future Reds teams with Jay Bruce that Harang and Dunn currently provide. However, although Bailey has dominated at the minor league levels, how many innings is wise to place on the arm of such a young pitcher, who has just tossed 375 combined innings, with 45 taking place in the majors?

And bright spots on the rest of the Reds’ pitching staff are few and far between. Mike Stanton, recently connected with George Mitchell’s steroid report, should be dogged by rumors and innuendo for much of the 2008 season. Ex-Mariner Bobby Livingston has failed to deliver on his promise that he exhibited when he compiled a 41-19 minor league record from 2003 to 2005. Todd Coffey, a one-time candidate for closer, struggled to keep his ERA below 6.00 for much of the year. And Kirk Saarloos, who at one time worked into rotation plans for the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics, now seems to be finishing his major league career by toiling in mediocrity for the Reds, who I wouldn’t be surprised if they give up on him as well.

Still, the excellence of Harang can’t be denied. And by maintaining a strong offensive core, along with Dusty Baker’s leadership and Francisco Cordero’s presence in the bullpen, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds finish above .500 in 2008, even if just barely. Considering the quality of their division, however, it may be a little too much to expect the Reds to compete, and don’t be surprised if either Dunn or Griffey Jr.- or both- wind up in different uniforms by the end of the year.