Hold the phone: The M’s sign Wilkerson to be their fourth outfielder/starting right fielder(?)

Just when it became pretty clear that their back-up options on the free-agent market for a starting right fielder in case the Adam Jones-Erik Bedard did, indeed, go down, the Mariners have announced they have signed former Texas Ranger outfielder/ big-time whiffer Brad Wilkerson to a one-year, $3 million contract.

Wilkerson’s contract also includes $2 million in performance bonuses depending on plate appearances, which raises the question as to whether the M’s are planning to use Wilkerson as a utility player/ fourth outfielder type player, or if they have signed him for the sole purpose of easing the impact wrought by dealing Jones. Regardless of how much playing time he receives, here’s hoping that Wilkerson’s 2008 season is reminiscent to Jose Guillen’s 2007 season. Minus any steroid connections, of course.

Marlins sign Luis Gonzalez as 4th outfielder, limiting Mariners’ choices

If Adam Jones is, indeed, traded to the Orioles for left-hander Erik Bedard, a huge gap will be opened up in the M’s right field, where Jones was slated to fill Jose Guillen’s spot.  One option could be to slide Ichiro back over to his native right field spot, with the M’s pinning their hopes on another go-around with Jeremy Reed in center, hoping that Reed finally, at the age of 27, delivers on the promise he exhibited as a younger player.  Reed showed some punch last year in Triple-A, compiling 55 extra-base hits in 135 games with Tacoma.  Besides Reed, other Mariners’ in-house options to fill the outfield vacancy if a Jones trade occurs would be Mike Morse, who has run out of options with the team and will be looking to hang onto a roster spot in spring training.  Yet another option could include moving Jeff Clement from behind the plate into the outfield, which would require a defensive sacrifice by Jeff trading his native position to an unfamiliar one for the sake of ensuring his hefty bat in the line-up.

If the Mariners explore the free-agent market for a possible starter to fill that right-field gap, they will find their options few and far between.  Olympia native Geoff Jenkins has signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Marlins announced today that they have signed Luis Gonzalez to be their fourth outfielder.  Options remaining include Brad Wilkerson (who hasn’t reached a batting average of .250 in three years), Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders, and Kenny Lofton among others (and, no, I’m not considering Barry Bonds).  How about Lofton in a Mariners’ uniform, suiting up for his eleventh team?  Why not?

Compared to the alternatives, when it’s all done and said, perhaps the best option for the M’s in right field might just be Adam Jones.

Bedard-Jones deal: The calm before the storm?

According the Seattle Times, both sides involved in the possible Erik Bedard-Adam Jones & Co. deal are keeping mum to the press.  Is this the relative calm period before the ’storm’ of the eventual trade?  Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos was described as ‘livid’ when reports were leaked that Jones was pulled from his Venezuela league playoff games last week.  As a result, Mariners officials are taking a silent stance regarding the possible deal, with General Manager Bill Bavsai avoiding a mention of the proposed deal in an email to the Seattle paper.

On an aside, the Seattle Times mentioned a report in the Baltimore Sun (no link provided), it appears that Bedard is sending his current employers mixed messages.  Supposedly his representation recommended that the O’s pursue a one-year deal, as Bedard is seeking to double in arbitration the $3.6 million that he earned last season, when a possible contention for the Cy Young award was derailed by an oblique arm injury.  However, in the same article Bedard expressed “disappointment” that the Orioles haven’t made an attempt towards signing him to a long-term contract.  Now the Orioles are making noises of offering their ace a seven-year $100 million contract, the same type of deals Angelos has avoided offering to players in the past.  (Though it wouldn’t be the first time Angelos has nixed pulling the trigger on deals ,though usually in the past it’s been due to health concerns.)  Still, Bedard says he wants “no part” in a rebuilding process in Baltimore, which it appears they are headed after dealing shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Astros for a handful of prospects.

In short, it doesn’t sound like Bedard knows what he wants.  Would the Canadian native even want to come out to the West Coast to play?  When would he figure that out?  Would he be bitter if his contract demands aren’t met, either by the Orioles or the Mariners?  Are the Mariners in a position to take such a gamble of having an irate, bitter ace having a negative influence on the bench?  It conjures up images of the debacle that was Randy Johnson’s last season in Mariners uniform back in 1999, when his sour-grapes attitude towards the M’s negatively impacted his usually dominating statistics before being dealt to the Astros.  Are the M’s willing to give up a handful of prospects that could have an immediate impact in exchange for such a headache?

Will the Santana deal effectively kill Bedard-Jones trade rumors?

When you consider what the Minnesota Twins received from the New York Mets in exchange for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johann Santana- a handful of prospects who are unlikely to make an immediate impact for the Twins, with the centerpiece of the deal being 25-year old Phillip Humber who compiled all of a 11-9 record and 4.27 ERA in 25 Triple-A starts in 2007- it’s pretty clear that Bavasi doesn’t need to give away the farm to the Baltimore Orioles for left-hander Erik Bedard. Nearly every report listed the trade package offered by Bavasi as including Adam Jones, George Sherrill, M’s minor league player of the year Chris Tillman- quite a collection of talent being offered for a pitcher with nary a Cy Young under his bet. Now that the Santana deal to the Mets has set the benchmark, the M’s can pull back on their offer as they have been provided with an opportunity to renegotiate and offer a package that includes substantially less in terms of talent.

Supposedly the Orioles had prevented the deal from going through, as they have been putting pressure on Bavasi to strengthen the M’s offer. However, by waiting too long, the O’s may have overplayed their hand, and may have played themselves into a package that doesn’t include Adam Jones, perhaps the highest-sought prospect the M’s have. In the post-Santana trade world, the O’s might be better off dealing Bedard for whatever collection of prospects available, or holding on to him and dealing him at next summer’s trade deadline. But with the Mets landing Santana for virtually nothing, the O’s have little room to issue demands in exchange for Bedard.

Mariners’ 2008 rotation: 12 pitchers vying for 5 spots

I do not envy new Mariners’ pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. Just weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, he has to figure out a five man rotation from twelve possible candidates.

To be fair, it seems as if the top four spots are locked in with King Felix, Washburn, Silva, and Batista, so that means eight candidates vying for the final rotation spot. For those looking to place bets, it appears that Brandon Morrow has the inside track to be the fifth starter, with Stottlemyre calling his stuff “just tremendous.”

Jones for Bedard deal all but completed

The AP reports:

The Seattle Mariners have asked top prospect Adam Jones to leave his Venezuelan Winter League team and return to the U.S., amid reports he’s headed to Baltimore as part of a trade for pitcher Erik Bedard.

Mariners spokesman Tim Hevly confirmed Sunday night the team had requested the return of Jones, who was expected to be one of Seattle’s starting outfielders when the season begins.

“We did ask Adam to come back from Venezuela,” Hevly said, declining to give a reason for the request.

That confirmation followed Sunday’s Seattle Times report that Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi was making Jones the centerpiece of a deal for Bedard. The Times, citing comments obtained from a Venezuelan newspaper, reported Jones said he’d discussed the deal with Bavasi and was going to Baltimore on Monday for a physical.

Last week, Bavasi said his team, a surprise contender last summer until a weak starting rotation finally collapsed in September, expects to have a newly acquired opening-day starter on March 31 against Texas.

“We are at the point now where we have to try to make these moves to get that top-of-the-rotation guy, to slot the rest of the rotation,” Bavasi said Thursday. “We feel we have to make one more move.”

The 28-year-old Bedard went 13-5 last season with a 3.16 ERA and 221 strikeouts, third in the AL. He’s currently scheduled for an arbitration hearing next month, with the left-hander asking for $8 million per season and Baltimore countering at $6 million.

Jones, who will turn 23 this summer, hit .246 in 41 games last year.

But this is only half the story, which the Seattle Times has on its blog, with reports from Venezuela as well as straight from Adam Jones:

Jones did not mince words when he spoke to a reporter from Diario Panorama in Venezuela today. We have a relationship with the reporter and paper and they have graciously supplied us with quotes from the interview with Jones.

“I received a call from Seattle saying that is no more playing for me and I can’t do anything about that,” Jones said. “I leave tomorrow morning…It sucks. I want to play. This is Game 4 of the finals and I really want to be there for my team, but it’s something that all the guys understand. I really want to play, but I can’t.”

On the actual deal itself: “(Bill Bavasi) called me yesterday and told me the news. I’ve got to go to Baltimore tomorrow morning and handle things there. I’m the centerpiece of the deal on the Mariners side. It’s an honor to get traded for such a highly talented pitcher as Bedard is. He’s one of the best. Last year he finished up as arguably one of the top candidates for the Cy Young. He’s that good, so for me it’s an honor. You know, I like Seattle, but if I am in Baltimore, as I think now I am, I’m going to embrace it and have the best time of my life in Major League Baseball.”

Looks like Erik Bedard is indeed headed to the Pacific Northwest, to pitch for a Mariners team with a decimated offense. He better be prepared to win plenty of 2-1 games.

Now with Guillen gone and Jones all but traded, what are the Mariners’ plans for the outfield?

UPDATE: The Orioles are stating that the Bedard-Jones trade is not, I repeat not, imminent.

2008 Team Previews: Florida Marlins

What happened to the Florida Marlins?

Just two years ago, the Marlins arrived at spring training with a young roster full of question marks and an unproven first-year manager. The baby Fish were written off by the national media, with some pre-season forecasts summing up the team’s chances as “Ugg”-ly, making a play on the the last name of team’s new second baseman. By consensus opinion, the Marlins were going to be lucky to win 60 games back in 2006.

But something happened along the way towards conventional wisdom. As it turned out, the Marlins’ starting rotation was a compilation of talented young arms, with four starters, none over the age of 24, winning at least ten games in at least 20 starts. The fifth starter, Anibal Sanchez, also reached double digits in wins, including a no-hitter, in only 17 games. The rookie manager, Joe Girardi, proved himself to be a brilliant, no-nonsense clubhouse strategist, providing the perfect attitude to whip a young talented team into shape. And that “Ugg”-ly second baseman? All Dan Uggla did was hit .282 with 27 home runs, making the Arizona Diamondbacks wince for leaving him unprotected in the Rule V draft as Uggla was both an All-Star and third in Rookie of the Year balloting. All of this led to respectability, as the written off Marlins finished the season with 78 wins, finishing just shy of .500 but also only ten games away from a playoff spot.

However, 2006 was two seasons ago. In the time since, Joe Girardi was dismissed from the managerial helm, despite winning Manager of the Year award for his efforts in defying expectations for his team. Obviously, the front office was displeased with having a manager who would argue with owner Jeffrey Loria from the dugout as Loria voiced his displeasure with an umpire’s calls from his front-row suite. This strained relationship led to Girardi’s removal, replaced by Fredi Gonzalez, who has proved to be more acquiescent to the demands of the front office than Girardi.

Besides even more than the managerial change, a key development that had more of an impact on the team’s record from the 78 wins picked up in 2006 to the 71 wins in 2007, was the collapse of the team’s starting rotation. After 2006, the Marlins looked to be set with a foursome of young, talented starers for years to come. However, a year after their impressive showing, the Marlins’ cadre of young starters struggled mightily. Injuries derailed a number of arms, with only Scott Olsen and Dontrelle Willis to survive the season unscathed, both ending up with identical 10-15 records.  However, the two had increased ERAs that demonstrated their struggles, as Willis finished with a 5.17 ERA (1.30 points higher than the 3.87 ERA he had in 2006) and Olsen with a 5.81 ERA (1.77 points higher than his 2006 ERA of 4.04).

After picking up 12 wins in 31 games, including 24 starts, in 2006, Josh Johnson appeared in only four games a year later before Tommy John surgery derailed his 2007 season, and will force him to miss all of the 2008 season as well.  Ricky Nolasco’s 2007 season was also disrupted by injuries, twice being forced onto the disabled list with right elbow inflammation, and appeared in only five games after winning 11 in 35 games, including 22 starts, in 2006. And after compiling a 2.83 ERA in his 18 games,and 17 starts including his no-hitter tossed against the Diamondbacks, Sanchez compiled a 4.80 ERA in six starts in 2007.

A cavalcade of auditions to replace the Johsnon-Nolasco-Sanchez trio occurred throughout much of the 2007 season, with most of the work falling on the shoulders of Sergio Mitre, Byung-Hun Kim, and Rick VandenHurk, combining to put together a 18-20 record in 63 starts and 5.41 ERA over 340 innings. The constant turmoil of the team’s pitching is a big reason why the team’s ERA, after finishing fifth in the league with a 4.37 ERA in 2006, ended up 15th in the league with a 4.94 ERA one year later.

The Marlins enter 2008 with continued concerns regarding their pitching. With the trade of Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen becomes the team’s de facto “ace” even though he’s a number three, at best, starter for an average major-league starting rotation. Being matched up against other teams’ best pitchers is going to hurt Olsen’s win-loss record, not to mention that of the club’s overall record. Mitre actually posted respectable numbers in 2007, carrying a sub-3.00 ERA through mid-July and finishing the year with an ERA+ of 93. Mitre has been on the fringes of various major league rotations throughout his career before establishing himself in his 27 starts last year. 2008 could be the season where Mitre establishes himself at the head of the Marlins’ rotation which, in the end, isn’t saying very much.

Young left-hander Andrew Miller was one of the main selling points in Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis swap with the Tigers, along with young outfielder Cameron Maybin. Miller was the highest-ranked pitcher in the 2006 draft, and signability issues prevented him from being the number one over-all pick. With the team’s rotation issues coupled with the fact that the Marlins traded the team’s heart-and-soul for him, it should be expected that Miller will get an immediate chance to prove himself in the Marlin’s rotation. And immediate results will likewise be expected. Unfortunately, the high expectations might be unfair for a player turning 22 at the end of August. There’s no doubting that Miller can pitch- limiting minor league batters to 73 hits in 83 innings, to go with 70 strikeouts- but my expectations for Miller are tempered just slightly. He’ll put up competitive numbers in his first time as a full starter in the bigs, but expect a losing record along with a 4.00 ERA and a ton of walks.  Still, if the team is able to get 34 starts and 200 innings from Miller, he’ll provide a steadying influence on the starting rotation.

The Marlins’ rotation is rounded out by Mark Hendrickson- a perennial loser with a lifetime .439 winning percentage, and who had a 4-8 record and 5.21 ERA in 39 games, including 15 starts, for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. Somehow, Hendrickson has never been able to translate his 6′9″ frame into a dominating mound presence similar to Randy Johnson’s, and expect Mark to pull double-duty in the rotation for the Marlins, helping out in the rotation and the bullpen. If he’s like he might pick up a half-dozen wins or saves, but don’t expect a low ERA. Dutch native VandenHurk, who turns 23 in May, is too much of an unknown quantity to figure out for 2008 which may work to his advantage, and Nolasco’s health will be watched closely as a rotation spot is considered for him. Nolasco contributed a 5.70 ERA in 24 innings over seven games this fall for the Peoria Saguaros, so it appears the Marlins are being careful with the young hurler who has compiled a .667 winning percentage while striking out 601 batters in 601 minor league innings.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Ricky spends most of the season in the rotation at Albuquerque as the team ensures he is healthy enough to reclaim his spot in the Marlin’s rotation.

If there was one saving grace for the Marlins’ pitching staff last season, it was the team’s bullpen, without which the starters would’ve compiled even lousier records. After Joe Borowski packed his 36 saves off to the AL Central champs Cleveland Indians, Kevin Gregg- who had just 120 games of relief in a variety of roles- was tapped to be the team’s closer. Gregg promptly responded with 32 saves and 87 strikeouts in 84 innings, despite an 0-5 record. Gregg may not get as many save opportunities in 2008 as he did in 2007, but I’d expect continued strong peripheral numbers. Besides, Gregg had a solid group of set-up men, including Lee Gardner (1.94 ERA in 62 games), Taylor Tankersely (3.99 ERA in 67 games) and Matt Lindstrom (3.09 ERA in 71 games), ensuring the smooth transition of late inning leads into Gregg’s possession. The same group is returning in 2008, and I’d expect continued strong performances from them all.

It’s unfortunate that the Marlins’ pitching struggled as it did, as it resulted in an explosive offense by the Marlins’ line-up being wasted. The Marlins slugged 204 home runs in 2007, good enough for fourth in the league while setting a franchise record. However, despite the power on display, only Miguel Cabrera was able to top 89 RBIs. His run-producing abilities will sorely be missed.

Dan Uggla followed up his All-Star rookie season with a .245 batting average and 167 strikeouts. Even though he’s a 30-home run threat, it appears that his swing has some huge holes in it, dooming him to low a batting average in the major leagues. Josh Willingham reached the 89 mark, to go along with 21 home runs and .265 average. Willingham has showed prodigious power in the minor leagues and, at 29, should step up his production in 2008. He should top 30 home runs and approach 100 RBIs with an average in the .280-.290 range, easing the loss of Cabrera a bit.  Jeremy Hermida, another young player that the Marlins are pinning high hopes on, hit .296 with 18 homers in 123 games last year, and both power and average should improve if he’s able to play in more games next year.

But perhaps the crown jewel in the Marlin’s line-up is Hanley Ramirez, who has gone from top Red Sox prospect to Rookie of the Year winner to MVP candidate in a few short years. Last year was a ‘coming out’ season for Hanley as he compiled a .332 average with 29 home runs and 82 RBIs, to go along with 51 stolen bases for the second season in a row. Hanley has compiled numbers in his first two seasons that are the stuff of legend, yet it’s hard to believe he just turned 24. Hanley reminds me of the next coming of Alfonso Soriano, except with a superior skill set. Hanley’s combination of speed and power is so impressive, that not even is a 40-40 season within his grasp, but I wouldn’t even be surprised if Hanley is the first major league player to reach the 50-50 level. (You heard it here first.) Hanley’s presence in the line-up alone keeps the Marlins respectable, regardless of how their pitching shakes up in 2008.

As I mentioned above regarding Adam Miller, the other prospect picked up from the Tigers, Cameron Maybin, who will turn 21, will get on-the-job training in the Marlins’ centerfield, which has been a sore spot for the team the past few years. Cameron has exhibited some impressive power and speed numbers himself, with 23 home runs and 52 stolen bases in 192 minor league games, but he appeared over-matched as he batted .143 in 24 games with the Tigers, including 21 strikeouts to three walks. Expect Cameron to have some growing pains as he eases into regular playing time.

Mike Jacobs, who has never really delivered on that promising 30-day span in which he slugged .710 with the New York Mets in 2005, returns at first base. Will 2008 be the year Jacobs tops the .270 mark with the Marlins? Jorge Cantu is the projected starter at third base. Though it will be tough, obviously, to fill Miguel Cabrera’s old position, Cantu is just three years removed from a 117-RBI season with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Cantu spent last season in the minors between the Devil Rays and Reds organizations, so it’s hard to say how he will respond to a possible full-time starting position. If Cantu falters, Jose Castillo provides back-up, but his declining stats (including a homerless 2007 season in 87 games) with the Pirates don’t present him as much of a palatable option. Neither does Alfredo Amezaga, whose speed is worth more coming off the bench rather than starting. Amezaga spent most of 2007 manning centerfield, one of the reasons why that position has been such a weak spot for the team.

The Marlins are also taking a chance with Mike Rabelo behind the plate. Rabelo, also picked up from Detroit in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis, hit .256 in 51 games with Detroit last year, and appears to be a quad-A player at best. He’s getting a crack at time behind the plate, but has to battle for playing time with Matt Treanor, who will probably get more of the playing time, even if the numbers he puts up more closely match his career marks (.236-.329-.323) then what he put up in 2007 (.269-.357-.392).

Due to the fact that the Marlins are planning on starting a number of players who would be better off on the bench, it’s clear their bench isn’t very deep.  However, one bat that the Marlins have that poses a threat belongs to Cody Ross, who has always has supplied power in the limited playing time he’s received but last year  he provided a .355 average  and an eye-popping 1.064 OPS. Although Ross will primarily be used  off the bench, he should also see time in the outfield when Maybin needs a break.

In the end, it might be all to easy to once again dismiss the Florida Marlins’ chances for 2008, just like it was two years ago.  However, though the team took a step backwards last year, it was only by seven games which could easily be made up, especially with an offense led by an ever-improving Hanley Ramirez.  It’s less likely that the Marlins will take another seven-game step back, but their final win total should be somewhere within the range of 2006’s 78 wins and last year’s 71.  Considering that they’re playing in the wide-open National League East, a division that lacks a clear dominating team, if manager Fredi Gonzlaez can quickly shape and mold the nucleus of young players into a contender sooner than later, than you might hear some noises from South Florida as the Marlins could potentially challenge for a playoff spot in 2009.

2008 Team Previews: Detroit Tigers

In regarding the Detroit Tigers upcoming season, I’m going to once again buck the conventional wisdom of baseball’s media punditocracy. I’ve all ready challenged the notion that Boston’s youth movement will lead to an unprecedented (for the Red Sox) run of championships, and I’ve also raised doubts that their World Series opponents, the Rockies, will make the post-season in 2008. 

As for Detroit, once General Manager David Dombroski and Owner Mike Illitch pulled the trigger and landed Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in an off-season trade, the consensus throughout the baseball-covering media is that the AL Central title should be immediately handed to Detroit. There’s just one problem, however. And that’s the fact that the Tigers finished second in the division last season, eight games behind the Indians. Cabrera and Willis might be very good pick-ups, but are they enough to make up that eight-game deficit?

Undoubtedly, Cabera will provide a big presence in the Tigers’ line-up, in more ways than one. Due to the fact that I don’t have a paid subscription to baseballprospectus.com (BP should include a code in the annual edition they print) I cannot readily access the site to find Miggy’s 2007 VORP, or value over replacement player, rating. Luckily, over at Dugout Central, I found that Cabrera’s 2007 VORP was 71.4, a slight drop from his 78.7 VORP in 2006. VORP is a statistical matrix that configures the amount of runs a player has over a replacement level, or average, player. From 2004 to 2006, Miggy’s VORP ranged from 43.5 to 78.7. Admittedly, that last number alone, which reflects Cabrera’s .339-26-114 2006 season, could almost close the gap between the Tigers and the Indians, especially when you consider that the player Cabrera is replacing at third base, Brandon Inge, had a VORP that decreased from 15 to 9.4 during the same span of three years. A good rule of thumb is that ten runs equal an extra victory, so by being 60 points better than Inge in terms of VORP translates to Cabrera providing possible wins while manning the hot corner in Detroit next season.

However, pitchers can be measured by VORP as well, which measures their performance over replacement-level pitchers. And Dontrelle Willis’s atrocious 2007 season- 10-15 record with a 5.17 ERA in 205 innings- led to a miserable VORP of 0.7. That’s right, Dontrelle’s entire performance last year couldn’t even be ranked one win higher than a replacement pitcher. In fact, Dontrelle contributed more with his bat- a hitter’s VORP of 14.7- then he did while on the mound last season. Unfortunately, pitchers don’t get to bat in the American League, so Dontrelle’s hitting prowess will all be for naught.

The Tigers’ desire to pry Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins makes sense. His talents, among other things, are undoubtedly immense, and despite playing half his games in spacious Comerica Park, Miggy should make a run at his first 40 home-run season. However, the silver lining of this deal for fans of opposing AL Central teams is the inclusion of Willis in the deal to land Miggy. It may be too soon to insinuate that Willis is “washed up”- he is, after all, just three years removed from a spectacular 22-win, 65.2 VORP season in 2005. But by all indications, Willis should struggle in his first season in the Junior Circuit, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Willis’s 2008 season mirrors the numbers he put up in 2007 very closely.

However, there is one additional player new to the Tigers’ roster that will help the team in its hunt to return to the postseason. The Tigers traded prospects Jair Jurdjens and Gorkys Hernandez to the Braves for shortstop Edgar Renteria, who’s fresh off a season that included a .332 average in 124games. Renteria’s 2007 season translated into a 47.5 VORP, and with Renteria’s persence at shortstop, Carlos Guillen can be repositioned at first base, where his 45 VORP replaces the 9.6 VORP compiled in 143 games by current free-agent Sean Casey.

‘Ah ha!’ say all those Tiger fans reading this. ‘With the combined 71.8 VORP ratings obtained in the trade for Cabrera and Willis, along with the Net increase of 38 VORP through a Renteria-Guillen combo over a Guillen-Casey combo, the combined VORP of nearly 110 equals, roughly, 11 wins, eclipsing the eight-game between the Tigers and the Indians. The AL Central is ours! Mwahahahahaha!” Not so fast, denizens of the Motor City. While on the surface, that arithemtic appears to be correct, I worrisome counter-balance to the Tigers’ off-season offensive improvement is the step backwards taken by the Tigers’ pitching staff in 2007, which was offensive in an entirely different manner.

Coming into the 2007 season, the Detroit Tigers were my prohibitive favorite to represent the American League in the World Series. One year removed from a series of on-the-mound meltdowns in the 2006 Fall Classic, the Tigers’ pitching staff- which by all indications appeared to be the youngest, deepest, and most talented in the league- would ensure the first World Series title to come to Detroit in over twenty years. However, with the exception of Justin Verlander, who followed up his 17-9, 3.63 ERA Rookie of the Year campaign in 2006 with an even better 18-6, 3.66 season in 2007, the Tigers’ pitching staff showed they were not ready for prime time, as their aggregate implosions sealed the Tigers’ fate of falling short of the playoffs in 2007 rather than making their second consecutive World Series for the first time in over seventy years.

After his breakthrough performance in 2006 (14-8, 4.08 ERA, 202 strikeouts in 214 innings), former 19-game loser Jeremy Bonderman’s 2007 appeared to be even better as he started off the season 10-1 record through mid-July. However, Bonderman won just one of nine decisions the rest of the season, eventually getting shut down after he gave up six runs in less than two innings in a start against Seattle in mid-September. Bonderman ended up with an 11-9 record and an ERA nearly an entire run higher than his previous season. While Bonderman may not approach those 19 losses he compiled as a rookie in 2003, expect his struggles to continue in 2008 as he searches for a way to right his ship.

Kenny Rogers, the heart and soul of the Tigers’ rotation as he compiled a17-8, 3.84 season in 2006, dealt with health problems in 2007, as The Gambler was limited to just 63 innings in 11 innings. At the age of 42, it has to be wondered just how much juice is left in the tank of the craft left-hander. Nate Robertson, recently signed to a three-year $21 million extension, struggled to follow up his 13-13, 3.84 season in 2006, as he finished with a 9-13 record and a 4.76 ERA. Robertson should be able to reach double figures in 2008, if nothing else. Zach Miner and Mike Maroth, who combined for a 12-8 record and 4.59 ERA in 147 innings in 2006 combined for an 8-6 record in 2007 before Maroth was dealt mid-season to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Perhaps the highlight of the Tigers’ pitching staff in 2007 was the emergence of Chad Durbin, a former 16-game loser in 2001 with the Kansas City Royals. Filling in for Rogers in the rotation, Durbin provided 128 solid innings over 36 games, including 19 starts, compiling an 8-7 record and a 4.72 ERA. Unfortunately, the Tigers allowed Durbin to leave as a free agent this off-season, and Chad signed with the Phillies, where I wouldn’t be surprised if he further establishes himself as a starter, perhaps filling in for another ancient left-hander in Jaimie Moyer.

And despite the incredible success, don’t expect Verlander to continue the .673 winning percentage he’s amassed in his first two major league seasons. Although Verlander was able to avoid a “sophomore slump” in his second season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a few lumps in his third go-around. Don’t be surprised if his winning percentage is more close to the .500 level, while amassing a dozen or so wins.

The reason why I expect the Tigers’ starting pitching to be unable to rebound from its step backward in 2007 is the state of the team’s bullpen, which looked incredibly dominating in 2006 but decidedly less so one year later. The absence of closer-in-the-making Joel Zumaya had a profound effect in the bullpen, as the loss of his 1.94 ERA over 83 innings in 2006 was never quite replaced as he recuperated from off-season injuries sustained from playing “Guitar Hero”. This led to a constant in flux scenario regarding the set-up position for closer Todd Jones, with Bobby Seay’s 2.33 ERA in 46 innings over 58 appearances coming close to a respectable performance. But Seay’s season was not nearly enough to compensate for the lack of Zumaya’s dominating performance, as the ERAs of Fernando Rodney (3.52 to 4.26) and Jason Grilli (4.21 to 4.74) increased from 2006 to 2007, and Tim Byrdak’s respectable 3.20 ERA was not enough to replace free agent defector Jaimie Walker’s 2.81 ERA in 2006. In short, the bullpen was not as reliable in 2007 as it was the year before, and the questions that continue to surround the bullpen cause doubt with the Tigers’ ability of its pitching staff to compete with the two-headed beast of Sabathia-Carmona that heads the Cleveland Indians’ staff.

With Zumaya suffering further injuries this off-season, requiring surgery and postponing an appearance with the team until mid-season, the questions that dogged the Tigers’ bullpen in 2007 will continue in 2008. As for closer Todd Jones, the veteran followed a 37-save season in 2006 with 38 saves in 2007 and was brought back on a one-year contract during the off-season. The fluid status of the Tigers’ bullpen appears not to have affected Jones’ save totals, even if his ERA has more than doubled from 2.10 with the Marlins in 2005 to 4.26 last season. Jones should still be able to rack up saves in 2008, however as he is turning 40 in the first month of the season and his considerably less-than-dominating SO/9 IP ratio of 5.5 in his last three years as a closer, it needs to be wondered just how much gas Jones has left in the tank. Either Seay or Grilli may be pressed upon to fill in as closer at some point in 2008, but they will probably more likely become familiar with their roles in the Tigers’ bullpen, leading to improved numbers that what they compiled in 2007.

Upon reflection of the impact Zumaya’s injury had on the club last season, major league owners and management may require a “no Guitar Hero” clause in contracts to accompany the anti-motorcycle and other extreme sports clauses currently in contracts. According to Hardball Times, Zumaya added 12 win shares to the club in 2006, which was instrumental for the club to snatch the Wild Card and an eventual pennant. Those 12 win shares attest to Zumaya’s dominance in 2006, a performance that was only half equaled by the six win shares compiled by Seay, his replacement in 2007. Six wins, interestingly enough, were all that separated the Tigers from the Yankees, last year’s Wild Card winner. And though it’s hard to insist that Zumaya’s absence directly led to the poor performance of the Tigers’ entire pitching staff, the numbers are there to definitely make such a case.

It’s unfortunate that- echoing the 2006 World Series- the performance of the Tigers’ pitching staff derailed the team’s chances to compete in 2007, as the team’s offense last season provided many thrills for Tigers fans.  The 882 runs compiled by Detroit’s explosive line-up last year was good enough for second place in the league- beyond the Yankees- and the most scored bya Tigers team in 14 years.  In fact, Detroit’s offense last season probably could be the only one in the league that could be compared, statistically, to the heavyweights of the Yankees and the Red Sox in the American League East last year.  And with the discussion of VORP provided by Tiger newcomers, next year’s offense should only be better.  Indeed, four players topped 100 runs for the Tigers last year, with Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield doing the trick.  The last time that number of Tigers topped the century mark in runs was way back in 1950. (The 1984 World Series champs, by the way, had zero players topping 100 runs.) 

Granderson and Polanco ccreate a formidable one-two combination at the top of the line-up.  The athletic Granderson placed third in the league with 122 runs, and had at least 20 doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases, a rare feat that was also matched by NL MVP Jimmy Rollins last year.  There is little reason to think that Granderson won’t continue roping extra base hits in 2008, though it should be wondered if his 26 stolen bases were a statistical aberration, or if he will continue to include speed as part of the talents that he brings to the table. 

Granderson set the table for Polanco, who was the toughest player in the league to strike out for the second season in a row, as he batted a career-high .341.  Consistently underrated, in 2007 Polanco had a career year as he topped 200 hits for the first time, reached his first All Star Game (thanks, in part, to the AL squad being helemd by Tigers mananger Jim Leyland), and also picked up his first Silver Slugger award.  With a decade of experience beneath his belt, Polanco appears be reaching the peak of his game.  Look for Placido to psossibly even improve on his numbers in 2008, as he makes a stab at his first career batting title.

Of course, Polanco will have to wrest the batting title out of the hands of his teammate Magglio Ordonez, who I feel was wrongly denied the AL MVP last season.  (While Alex Rodriguez had a fine season, isn’t he expected to hit 50 homeruns and 100 RBIs on an annual basis?  Why should he be rewarded just for meeting expectations.)  At one point universally despised around the Detroit region as a $75 million debacle (the amount of the contract he signed in the 2005 off-season) as he was limited to just 82 games in the first year his five-year contract, Ordonez backed up the solid numbers he had 2006 with a number of career highs in 2007, including runs (117), hits (216), RBIs (139), doubles (54), walks (76), on-base percentage (.434), slugging percentage (.595), and, of course, batting average (.363) for his first batting title.  The question is what can Magglio do for an encore, as nearly any numbers he puts up will bound to be disappointing to some extent.  He should still hit for a high average in 2008, and will be able to rack up RBIs batting in the middle of this line-up, but it appears that he’s not as much of a 30-home run threat as he was earlier in his career, and this will continue to reflect in his extra base totals as they will trend towards doubles over home runs.

As th final player to top 100 runs last season for the Tigers, Gary Sheffield appeared to start the season energized to be reunited with Jim Leyland, who he won a World Series with in 1997 as a member of the Florida Marlins, in an off-season trade from the New York Yankees, who he appeared in just 39 games for in 2006.  Gary was batting .291 with 24 home runs and 69 RBIs by mid-August.  However, shoulder injuries severely limited his performance the rest of the way as he batted just .167 with one home run and six RBIs the rest of the season as the Tigers flailed away for a postseason berth, watching the Wild Card slip from their grasp.  Always a dangerous hitter- even at the age of 39- it needs to be considered that age and a career that’s been marked with numerous battles with injuries is finally catching up with Sheffield’s effectiveness with a bat. 

As discussed above, by moving Carlos Guillen across the diamond from shortstop to first base, the Tigers have addressed the weaker parts of their line-up.  Guillen has turned into a solid players sicne the Mariners traded him to the Tigers in exchange for Ramon Santiago, the baseball equivalent of three magic beans.  An All-Star in 2007, Guillen set career highs in home runs (21) and RBIs (102), and is always a threat to reach double figures in doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases, as well as driving Mariners fans crazy.  Sean Casey, who Guillen is replacing at first base, might be one of the nicest players in baseball- earning the nickname “The Mayor” to his talkative nature at first base- but his skill set has delined since his days of competing for a batting title with the Cinncinnati Reds in the late 1990s.  In recent years, Casey has struggled to reach a .400 slugging average, which is a negative mark for a first baseman, explaining why Casey is currently languishing on the free agent market.  The Tigers are much improved with the decision to have Guillen man first.  

That’s not to say the Tigers’ line-up isn’t devoid of any weaknesses.  Future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez may provide a veteran prsence behind the plate, but that didn’t prevent a negative slide by the Tigers’ pitching staff last year.  Plus his .281 batting average, while respectable, is a far cry from the .334 mark that I-Rod put up in 2004, his first season with the Tigers, and his nine walks and a sub-.300 on-base percentage in over 500 plate appearances indicates a poorer strike zone judgement.  Jacque Jones returns to the American League and takes over in left field for Craig Monroe, who was dealt mid-season to the Cubs last year.  While Jones should benefit from the line-up and hit for a high average, his collapse from 27 home runs in 2006 to just five last season causes concern that the Tigers may have inserted a punchless bat into left field. 

Though there is enough firepower in the line-up to compensate for a lack of punch provided by Jones, the Tigers may give more playing time in left to Marcus Thames, just two years removed from a 26-home run season, or Brandon Inge who, despite his usual low average, could sniff 20 home runs if given enough playing time.  Other bright spot on the Tigers’ bench include Mike Hessman- who is perhaps the epitome of a quad-A player, compiling 254 home runs over 12 minor league seasons- and 27-year old infielder Ryan Raburn, who has compiled 104 home runs in seven minor league seasons.

In the final analysis, the addition of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Edgar Renteria doesn’t guarantee a division title for the Tigers, though the team may see more seats being filled due to the attraction of its new stars.  However, what the Tigers’ off-season acquisitions does ensure is the transfer of the balance of power in the American League, from the East to the Central.  The Tigers should be able to overcome their pitching woes and claim their second American League Wild Card in three years, and face off against the American League East winner.  Perhaps the dispute over which team is the best in the AL Central can be decided in an ALCS pitting the Tigers against the Indians next season, the first of possibly many such playoff match-ups in the future.

The Mariners, Statistical Equivalent of the Yankees? Pah-leeze.

Over on Geoff Baker’s blog, he makes the case for the M’s to pull the trigger on the Adam Jones-for-Erik Bedard trade, saying that it will put the M’s in a better position to battle the Angels for the title in a two-team division, as the AL West currently stands.

Look, I’ve all ready stated the high esteem I hold EriKKK Bedard, who could eventually supplant Johan Santana as the best left-hander in baseball. His presence on the pitching staff would immensely help the M’s address starting pitching, their most pressing need. However, Adam Jones is by all accounts their most major-league ready prospect with comparisons made to a healthy, in-his-prime Eric Davis, who enjoyed a brief stint as the most dynamic player in all of baseball during the 1980s.

Considering that the M’s offense will take a huge hit with the loss of Jose Guillen’s .290-23-99 line from last season, it is imperative that Jones is able to match at least a portion of those numbers for the M’s offense to have any sort of run-producing potential (expecting, of course, that Richie Sexson bounces back to average and the M’s receive an OPS higher than .775 from their DH). Bedard has all ready stated that he will test the free-agent market when his contract expires in 2010, regardless of whether he stays with the Orioles or is traded to another team.

So, if the M’s were to follow Baker’s suggestions and pull the trigger on this deal, they would be swapping an outfielder who could be a dominating presence in the line-up for the next decade, for a pitcher who, while being just as a dominating presence on the mound, is also performing complicated mathematical equations as he considers various potential contracts between pitches. What if the M’s pull this trade, the offense takes a hit, and the M’s spend the next couple of seasons hanging out with the Rangers and the A’s looking up at that wide expanse separating themselves from the Angels. Given that circumstance, wouldn’t they deal Bedard at the 2009 trade deadline for a playoff contender?

This situation is entirely hypothetical, of course, but the result would be the M’s trading their top prospect for a one-and-a-half year rental of an ace, who could lose a number of 2-1, and 3-2 games due to the M’s lackluster offense. And, yes, as an M’s fan I’m quite familiar with the long list of “can’t miss” prospects that were never realized. But, so what? Every team has such a history. And I give those nay-sayers three words: Ken Griffey Jr.

So, no, despite the salivating prospect over having Bedard suit up in the teal-and-blue, I’m disagreeing with Baker on this one, I’m going to have to side with fellow Times columnist Jerry Brewer: keep Jones in Seattle. There are a number of other available prospects the M’s have that the Orioles could pick up a few for Bedard to build the nucleus of a contender around. But Jones should be off-limits.

Another contention Baker makes that I disagree with is the following:

So, are the Mariners (with Bedard) statistically any worse off than the Yankees were the last two years? I’d say no.

Obviously, a Mariners’ pitching staff with Bedard at the helm would be far superior to nearly every other staff in baseball, especially the Yankees’ collection of unknowns and retreads that comprised their 2007 pitching staff. However, even if you were to stack the M’s starting rotation from last season to the Yankees’ 2007 staff, I’d still have to give the nod to the M’s. That’s what happens when the Yankees give nearly a third of their starts to the combination of Tyler Clippard-Kei Igawa-Matt DeSalvo- and Mike Mussina, who at one point in his career seemed sure bet for the Hall of Fame, but is seeing those chances implode the longer he spends in Yankee pinstripes. The M’s starting staff had some undeniable warts as well (Hellooo Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek, and Ryan Feierabend, I’m looking in your direction) who combined for even more- 68- starts than the Yankees’ Fearsome Foursome. Still, the top three starters for the M’s rotation- Felix, Batista, and Washburn- complied a 4.18 ERA in 577 innings, providing more of a consistency than the top starters for the Yankees- Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang- who although compiled a 3.89 ERA, did so in 160 fewer innings. Add Carlos Silva’s 4.19 ERA in 202 innings to last year’s M’s rotation, and you have nearly 800 innings of 4.00 ERA- a number that is far superior to what the Yankees could even come close to matching.

The M’s have a better pitching staff than the Yankees, even without adding Bedard. (Or Silva for that matter.) Yes, the two club’s over-all ERA+ do closely match (99 for the Yanks, 91 for the M’s), but that’s where the statistical comparisons end. The run production provided by last year’s Yankees line-up- 968 runs- is nearly a 22% increase over the 794 runs the M’s compiled last year. Taking a look at the team’s Pythagorean Records- which reflects the teams’ number of runs scored versus runs allowed- showcases the wide difference between the two teams. The M’s Pythagorean Record of 79-83 shows that the pitching staff helped add ten wins to a woeful offense, while the Yankees’ Pythagorean record of 97-65, which closely matches the 94 wins the Yankees ended with, shows that the Yankees, through the benefit of scoring 170 runs more than the M’s, were a team that was 20 wins better than the Mariners. Statisitically speaking.

Baker may presume that the edge the M’s pitching gives them in a direct comparison with the Yankees cancels out the huge edge given to the Yankees’ by their dominating line-up. One could also make the case that the M’s offense is superior, as is the consequence for the Yankees’ stocking their roster with older, proven veterans. Then again, the M’s regularly trot Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson out onto the field, and I consistently flinch whenever a ball is hit in Yuniesky Betancourt’s direction, that that argument can’t be made.

The truth is, if the Yankees and the M’s shared the same division, as presently composed the Mariners would consistently finish beneath the Yankees. Probably by a wide margin. That fate wouldn’t befall a team that is “statistically similar” to the Yankees. Perhaps the only team that can be said to be similar to the New York Yankees on a statistical basis would be the Boston Red Sox, who it could be even argued are statistically superior to the Yankees. However, in a playoff series between the M’s and the Yankees (assuming both teams are playing steroids-free) then the M’s edge in pitching and defense could conceivably put them on top.

But you have to get there that matters. Though the M’s do need to address their starting pitching, I kind of get the sense that their offense for 2008 is built on a hope and a prayer. That is why I disagree with Baker regarding trading Adam Jones for Erik Bedard.

UPDATE: Tom at Mariners Analysis poo-poos the Jones-package-for-Bedard deal as well, with much harsher language directed Bavasi’s way for being so hell-bent on trading Jones for a hypothetical one-year rental of an ace, despite Bedard’s injury history and the lac of a back-up plan to replace Guillen.

Bud Selig gets granted an undeserved extension

For those baseball fans looking to cast aside the sickening nausea associated with Bud Selig’s term as commissioner and hope for a brighter future for baseball, the wait will have to continue as Selig was granted a three-year extension to continue as baseball commission. At least us rational baseball fans will be able to get a reprieve when his term expires in 2012, as he will not seek an extension beyond that. Or so he says. He made similar statements regarding the ending of his current contract in 2009.

It’s pretty pathetic that the commissioner is being rewarded while the game’s reputation has been sullied and dragged through the mud under his watch. Sure, the revenues of the game has increased six-fold during his tenure, from revenues of $1.5 billion when he took over the reins from Fay Vincent, who was pushed aside by the owners, to the $6 billion-plus in revenues being raked in by owners today. The troubling thing is, Barry Bond’s head has expanded by a similar amount over the same time period.

The truth is, when the Mitchell Report was released, I watched a muted news coverage in a bar. I couldn’t hear what was being discussed, and I didn’t need to. When I saw Selig’s face, I lost control of my stomach as I wretched on top of the bar. Thinking the worst was past, I was proven wrong when the screen flashed to Donald Fehr, and I wretched again.

It’s these two individuals that make it so tough to be a fan of this game. But I will solider on, regardless….