2008 Team Previews: Colorado Rockies

Looking back on the 2007 baseball season, the obvious highlight is the Boston Red Sox winning their second World Series championship in four seasons. However, the story provided by the Colorado Rockies as they rode a ridiculous late-season stretch of dominance- winning 21 out of 22 games- to become Boston’s World Series opponent is undoubtedly the feel-good story of 2007.

Yes, I did declare my vehemence for the Rockies and openly rooted against them during the Series. But as a Mariners fan, it pains me to see a franchise club that’s been around half as long as the M’s reach the Series while baseball fans in Seattle have been shut out. (In no small part, of course, to the efforts of a juiced-up Yankees team in 2000 and 2001.) You have to appreciate the results brought about by the Rockies’ efforts in 2007, whether it be individual (such as manager Clint Hurdle taking his ill daughter on weekend trips to Starbucks) or the organization as a whole (GM Dan O’Dowd able to stick around and lead the club to success seven years after his disastrous free-agent signings of Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle in 2000).

If there is one thing to learn from the Rockies’ season is that how you end your season very much colors how people reflect and respond to the team. (This could be applied to the New York Mets as well.) Case in point, if the Rockies’ had swapped records between the horrid April and their unbelievable September, they would’ve spent the summer fighting off the Arizona Diamondbacks, eventually succumbing and losing the division to Arizona in the final week of the Series. Instead of heading into the playoffs on a torrid tear, with self-confidence helping leading to the sweeps that propelled them to the World Series, the Rockies would’ve limped into the playoffs with many questions circling the team about their heart, drive, and ability to compete. The eventual outcome of the playoffs could’ve been entirely different.

Luckily for Rockie fans, the club won twenty games in September rather than April, bringing October baseball to the chilly Colorado peaks for the first time. And, fortunately or unfortunately, whetted Rockies fans’ appetites for a return to October baseball next season. Similar to scaling Pikes Peak in the actual Rocky Mountains, would returning to playoff baseball in 2008 be too much of a lofty goal?

Unfortunately for the team’s chances at a shot for a repeat post-season appearance, Rockies they play in the National League West, the division with perhaps the highest level of parity in all of baseball. With the near incestuous trading of talent between NL West clubs leading to to a shared knowledge and comfortability with divisional rivals, very little separates the overall level of talent between the top clubs in the division. Which the Rockies discovered this past season, as they tied for the Wild Card and forced a one-game playoff with the San Diego Padres, and somehow rallied from a two-run extra-inning deficit against career saves leader Trevor Hoffman to play meaningful games in October for the first time since 1995.

Even if they come up short of the post-season, there is little reason why the Rockies shouldn’t be able to prove that their emergence and competitiveness in 2007 wasn’t a fluke. Due to the free agent debacles of Hampton and Neagle, the ownership of the Rockies have been patiently developing a key core of young players, weathering criticism from Rockie fans as they suffered through six straight losing seasons with manager Clint Hurdle and general manger Dan O’Dowd. Finally, the patience was rewarded in 2007. And the core that the Rockies developed could be matched favorable against the core of any team in baseball.

A preseason guarantee that the Rockies would make the playoffs- similar to Jimmy Rollins’ boast- was perhaps all that denied left-fielder Matt Holliday the National League MVP last season. Holliday arguably had better offensive numbers than Rollins, and his explosive final month of the year- a .365/.447/.788 line with 12 home runs in his final 27 games- should’ve been the exclamation mark necessary to solidify his case for the MVP as he helped steer the club from fourth place to the post-season. A good player on the verge of greatness, Holliday has only improved each season of his career and there is little to doubt that his 2008 season will be better than his 2007 season. After picking up his first batting crown with a .340 average last season, I wouldn’t put it past Holliday to make a run at .350, with 40 home runs and 140 RBIs. (Such is the benefit of playing half your games in Denver.) Holliday is under contract with the Rockies through 2009, and the Rockies better act now to lock him up further until he prices himself out of the Rockies’ price range. Of course, as Holliday’s agent is Scott Boras, Holliday may be tempted to test free agent waters and resist signing a long-term deal with the Rockies. Which means if the Rockies are out of contention next season then Colorado may be looking to package Holliday for a collection of prospects, Mark Teixiera-style. But considerin their division, the team shouldn’t be out of contention and as long as they’re close then the front office needs to do everything in their power to lock up Holliday long-term, Scott Boras be damned.

Holliday may be a dominating offensive player and on the short list for next year’s NL MVP, but he is hardly the lone bright spot for the Rockies’ offense. Colorado is largely bringing back the same roster that reached the World Series last year, a number of which have very potent and clutch bats. I’ve written about Brad Hawpe on this blog in the past, and how his efforts during the Rockies’ historic run- 26 RBIs in his last 28 games, with nearly every one tying the game or putting the club in the lead- have been overshadowed by Holliday’s heroics. By reaching career highs in home runs (29) and RBIs (116), Hawpe had a very fine 2007 season and finished 24th in MVP balloting. However, Hawpe has yet to prove the continued level of performance that Holliday has, so don’t be surprised if his numbers tail off a bit in 2008.

One Rockie batter who has sustained a high level of offensive performance, however, is third baseman Garrett Atkins, a player deemed so valuable by the Rockies’ brain trust that they let incumbent third baseman Vinny Castilla walk after Castilla led the league with 131 RBIs in 2004. Atkins hit .301 with 25 home runs, 111 RBIs, and a .486 slugging average- fine numbers, but which all had dropped from the prior season. Atkins should rebound next season, and could approach the .315-30-140 range, as he makes a case for himself as the best third baseman in the league, despite what some in Queens, NY might say.

A year ago, discussions were raised between the Red Sox and the Rockies for Colorado to send first baseman Todd Helton and his $16.6 million salary to Boston in exchange for prospects. Ultimately the package that Colorado was seeking- Jacoby Ellsbury? Craig Hansen? Manny Delcarmen?- was too much for the Red Sox, and talks broke down. Who would’ve suspected that the same two teams would meet in that upcoming World Series, as Helton- long the face of the woeful franchise- finally threw off that particular 800-pound gorilla off his shoulder and helped the Rockies reach the post-season. Finally, the greatness of Helton was matched by the level of greatness of the team he played on. Despite being just 33, Helton was considered the “grizzled” veteran, providing a steady presence as he helped lead the team to the playoffs during the final month of the season, batting .385 with a 1.118 OPS in his last 29 games of the season. Although Helton’s numbers have tailed off in recent seasons compared to the heady earlier days of his career, with the right supporting cast- like the one he’ll have in 2008- he might be bale to put up similar numbers to those seasons. The career .332 hitter- the second highest active batting average behind Ichiro- has finished in the top 10 in batting average in eight of the past nine seasons, excepting his .302 average in 2006. Although Helton may not have made a serious run at a batting crown since his league-leading .372 average in 2000- and hasn’t topped .340 in the past three seasons- Helton has the ability to win a batting crown in any given year. And from 1999 to 2004, Helton averaged 37 home runs and 121 RBIs. I like the chances of Helton’s bat being rejuvenated playing in the current Rockie line-up, and wouldn’t be surprised if next season he topped 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, for the first time in five years.

Many Rockie fans feel that shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was robbed of the Rookie of Year last season, which was won by my man-crush Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers. Tulowitzki may not have matched Braun’s raw power numbers, but Tulowitzki did set a National League record for home runs by a rookie shortstop- his 24 homers topping Ernie Banks’ 19 home runs hit in 1954- and his defense was far superior than Braun’s. The combination of his talent and clubhouse presence may lead to favorable comparisons with Derek Jeter, Tulowitzki’s boyhood idol, but with better power and a better glove. However, the disappearing act pulled by Tulowitzki in the playoffs- batting just .179 in the first two sweeps, and .195 overall while striking out 15 times in 11 games- should perhaps temper expectations. Tulowitzki is going to be just 23 in 2008, and I would wager that his final numbers end up looking more like those of Jeter’s second season (.290-10-70) rather than Banks’s (.295-44-117).

But there are still questions concerning the Rockies’ offense that need to be addressed.  Is Omar Quintanilla really the answer to replace Kaz Matsui at second base? Quintanilla may have been able to hit .300 over his past 700 at-bats at Triple-A Colorado Springs, but his lack of speed- 19 stolen bases in 442 minor league games- will definitely not be able to replace the 32 stolen bases that Kaz Matsui provided last season at the top of the line-up.  The two most likely back-ups for Quintanilla- Ian Stewart and Clint Barmes- all have question marks, due to Stewart’s youth and Barmes’ struggles with injuries.  However, Stewart has provided conssitent numbers at every minor league stop from rookie ball, and should be able to quickly fill in if Quintanilla falters.

With Matsui’s speed having vacated the Rockies in exchange for manning the second base job for the Houston Astros, a healthy Willy Taveras- who stole 33 bases last season in just 97 games- is needed in 2008.  Taveras’ speed- along with a batting average that improved by over sixty points in 2007- is going to be needed for the Rockies’ explosive offense to be able to knock in runs.  Cory Sullivan has shown that he could be a capable fill-in if needed, but his presence cannot compensate for any extended absence by Taveras.

The Rockies’ pitching staff might be all that prevents this team from making a follow-up appearance in the post-season in 2008.   Although the team’s ERA ranked eighth in the league, it seems as if the Rockie’s pitchers willed the team to the playoffs on a wing-and-a-prayer.  Other than left-handed ace Jeff Francis, who has the skill set to be an 18-game winner and 200-strikeout pitcher in 2008, there is little on this pitching staff that will make opponents cringe.  And the signing of Kip Wells, a 17-game loser last season with the Cardinals, to a one-year deal does little to challenge the impression of a weak starting staff.

Josh Fogg may have earned the reputation of “Giant Killer” during the run-up to the playoffs, but his faltering in Game Three of the World Series- allowing six runs in less than three innings- proved that Fogg was unable to slay the mightiest giant when needed.  Fogg has had a lifetime of mediocrity in his baseball career, compiling a 60-60 record over seven major league seasons.  While he did enjoy his third-lowest ERA with last season’s 4.94 in 166 innings (!), I wouldn’t expect much from Fogg in 2008.  Instead, I would look for a re-emergence from sinkerballer Aaron Cook, who was limited to 25 games in 2007 due to injuries.  Cook came into the season as the Rockies’ Opening Day starter after a 2006 season in which he tossed over 200 innings.  Cook should be good for at least 30 starts and 200 innings, and even if he wins just 10 games, that will be a step in the right direction for C0ok to reclaim his status as an integral member of the Rockies’ pitching staff, which will justify the Rockies signing Cook to a three-year extension this past off-season.

I don’t see Wells and Coors Field mixing well, and even if Wells is able to lower his 5.70 ERA next season, the pitcher with a lifetime .412 winning percentage should put up a similar mark with the Rockies next season.  The rest of the Rockies rotation are question marks, with Ubaldo Jimenez- who went 12-9 between the minors and majors in 2007,  and allowed eight hits (and eight walks) in 11.1 innings the first two rounds of the playoffs before faltering in his only World Series start- and Jason Hirsh, who went 6-9 between the majors and minors last season, to be the favorites for the back end of the Rockies’ rotation.

The bullpen is in capable hands with Manny Corpas, who compiled 19 saves with an ERA just over 2.00 and a WHIP jsut over 1.00 last season.  Expect better numbers as a full season as closer in 2008.  Brian Fuentes, the former All Star closer who’s in-season implosion allowed Corpas to take the closer position, will be the Rockies’ main set-up man and should have numbers that match, if are not better, than last season’s ERA (3.08) and WHIP (1.13).  Jeremy Affeldt will also be an essential component of the bullpen, but the Rockies will miss Latroy Hawkins, who will bring his 60 innings of solid relief to the New York Yankees.  Hawkins could be replaced in hte bullpen by Taylor Buchholz, who although a starter in the Astros’ organization that Colorado got in exchange for Jason Jennings, may find a niche in the Rockies’ bullpen and at age 26 could still fill in a role in the starting rotation, if necessary.

In the final analysis, the National League West in 2008 should be just as competitive a division as it was last season.  It took a dramatic, history-making run for the Rockies to be able to secure their second franchise post-season spot, and first World Series appearance.  The likelihood of that occurring again in 2008 is doubtful.  The team will make things interesting, and should energizes their fans on Blake Street with a trio of MVP-worthy performances in their offense.  But ultimately that reoccurring Achilles’ heel for so many teams- starting pitching- will be the Rockies’ undoing, and ultimately prevent them from reaching the post-season next year.