The Mariners, Statistical Equivalent of the Yankees? Pah-leeze.

Over on Geoff Baker’s blog, he makes the case for the M’s to pull the trigger on the Adam Jones-for-Erik Bedard trade, saying that it will put the M’s in a better position to battle the Angels for the title in a two-team division, as the AL West currently stands.

Look, I’ve all ready stated the high esteem I hold EriKKK Bedard, who could eventually supplant Johan Santana as the best left-hander in baseball. His presence on the pitching staff would immensely help the M’s address starting pitching, their most pressing need. However, Adam Jones is by all accounts their most major-league ready prospect with comparisons made to a healthy, in-his-prime Eric Davis, who enjoyed a brief stint as the most dynamic player in all of baseball during the 1980s.

Considering that the M’s offense will take a huge hit with the loss of Jose Guillen’s .290-23-99 line from last season, it is imperative that Jones is able to match at least a portion of those numbers for the M’s offense to have any sort of run-producing potential (expecting, of course, that Richie Sexson bounces back to average and the M’s receive an OPS higher than .775 from their DH). Bedard has all ready stated that he will test the free-agent market when his contract expires in 2010, regardless of whether he stays with the Orioles or is traded to another team.

So, if the M’s were to follow Baker’s suggestions and pull the trigger on this deal, they would be swapping an outfielder who could be a dominating presence in the line-up for the next decade, for a pitcher who, while being just as a dominating presence on the mound, is also performing complicated mathematical equations as he considers various potential contracts between pitches. What if the M’s pull this trade, the offense takes a hit, and the M’s spend the next couple of seasons hanging out with the Rangers and the A’s looking up at that wide expanse separating themselves from the Angels. Given that circumstance, wouldn’t they deal Bedard at the 2009 trade deadline for a playoff contender?

This situation is entirely hypothetical, of course, but the result would be the M’s trading their top prospect for a one-and-a-half year rental of an ace, who could lose a number of 2-1, and 3-2 games due to the M’s lackluster offense. And, yes, as an M’s fan I’m quite familiar with the long list of “can’t miss” prospects that were never realized. But, so what? Every team has such a history. And I give those nay-sayers three words: Ken Griffey Jr.

So, no, despite the salivating prospect over having Bedard suit up in the teal-and-blue, I’m disagreeing with Baker on this one, I’m going to have to side with fellow Times columnist Jerry Brewer: keep Jones in Seattle. There are a number of other available prospects the M’s have that the Orioles could pick up a few for Bedard to build the nucleus of a contender around. But Jones should be off-limits.

Another contention Baker makes that I disagree with is the following:

So, are the Mariners (with Bedard) statistically any worse off than the Yankees were the last two years? I’d say no.

Obviously, a Mariners’ pitching staff with Bedard at the helm would be far superior to nearly every other staff in baseball, especially the Yankees’ collection of unknowns and retreads that comprised their 2007 pitching staff. However, even if you were to stack the M’s starting rotation from last season to the Yankees’ 2007 staff, I’d still have to give the nod to the M’s. That’s what happens when the Yankees give nearly a third of their starts to the combination of Tyler Clippard-Kei Igawa-Matt DeSalvo- and Mike Mussina, who at one point in his career seemed sure bet for the Hall of Fame, but is seeing those chances implode the longer he spends in Yankee pinstripes. The M’s starting staff had some undeniable warts as well (Hellooo Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek, and Ryan Feierabend, I’m looking in your direction) who combined for even more- 68- starts than the Yankees’ Fearsome Foursome. Still, the top three starters for the M’s rotation- Felix, Batista, and Washburn- complied a 4.18 ERA in 577 innings, providing more of a consistency than the top starters for the Yankees- Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang- who although compiled a 3.89 ERA, did so in 160 fewer innings. Add Carlos Silva’s 4.19 ERA in 202 innings to last year’s M’s rotation, and you have nearly 800 innings of 4.00 ERA- a number that is far superior to what the Yankees could even come close to matching.

The M’s have a better pitching staff than the Yankees, even without adding Bedard. (Or Silva for that matter.) Yes, the two club’s over-all ERA+ do closely match (99 for the Yanks, 91 for the M’s), but that’s where the statistical comparisons end. The run production provided by last year’s Yankees line-up- 968 runs- is nearly a 22% increase over the 794 runs the M’s compiled last year. Taking a look at the team’s Pythagorean Records- which reflects the teams’ number of runs scored versus runs allowed- showcases the wide difference between the two teams. The M’s Pythagorean Record of 79-83 shows that the pitching staff helped add ten wins to a woeful offense, while the Yankees’ Pythagorean record of 97-65, which closely matches the 94 wins the Yankees ended with, shows that the Yankees, through the benefit of scoring 170 runs more than the M’s, were a team that was 20 wins better than the Mariners. Statisitically speaking.

Baker may presume that the edge the M’s pitching gives them in a direct comparison with the Yankees cancels out the huge edge given to the Yankees’ by their dominating line-up. One could also make the case that the M’s offense is superior, as is the consequence for the Yankees’ stocking their roster with older, proven veterans. Then again, the M’s regularly trot Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson out onto the field, and I consistently flinch whenever a ball is hit in Yuniesky Betancourt’s direction, that that argument can’t be made.

The truth is, if the Yankees and the M’s shared the same division, as presently composed the Mariners would consistently finish beneath the Yankees. Probably by a wide margin. That fate wouldn’t befall a team that is “statistically similar” to the Yankees. Perhaps the only team that can be said to be similar to the New York Yankees on a statistical basis would be the Boston Red Sox, who it could be even argued are statistically superior to the Yankees. However, in a playoff series between the M’s and the Yankees (assuming both teams are playing steroids-free) then the M’s edge in pitching and defense could conceivably put them on top.

But you have to get there that matters. Though the M’s do need to address their starting pitching, I kind of get the sense that their offense for 2008 is built on a hope and a prayer. That is why I disagree with Baker regarding trading Adam Jones for Erik Bedard.

UPDATE: Tom at Mariners Analysis poo-poos the Jones-package-for-Bedard deal as well, with much harsher language directed Bavasi’s way for being so hell-bent on trading Jones for a hypothetical one-year rental of an ace, despite Bedard’s injury history and the lac of a back-up plan to replace Guillen.