2008 Team Previews: Detroit Tigers

In regarding the Detroit Tigers upcoming season, I’m going to once again buck the conventional wisdom of baseball’s media punditocracy. I’ve all ready challenged the notion that Boston’s youth movement will lead to an unprecedented (for the Red Sox) run of championships, and I’ve also raised doubts that their World Series opponents, the Rockies, will make the post-season in 2008. 

As for Detroit, once General Manager David Dombroski and Owner Mike Illitch pulled the trigger and landed Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in an off-season trade, the consensus throughout the baseball-covering media is that the AL Central title should be immediately handed to Detroit. There’s just one problem, however. And that’s the fact that the Tigers finished second in the division last season, eight games behind the Indians. Cabrera and Willis might be very good pick-ups, but are they enough to make up that eight-game deficit?

Undoubtedly, Cabera will provide a big presence in the Tigers’ line-up, in more ways than one. Due to the fact that I don’t have a paid subscription to baseballprospectus.com (BP should include a code in the annual edition they print) I cannot readily access the site to find Miggy’s 2007 VORP, or value over replacement player, rating. Luckily, over at Dugout Central, I found that Cabrera’s 2007 VORP was 71.4, a slight drop from his 78.7 VORP in 2006. VORP is a statistical matrix that configures the amount of runs a player has over a replacement level, or average, player. From 2004 to 2006, Miggy’s VORP ranged from 43.5 to 78.7. Admittedly, that last number alone, which reflects Cabrera’s .339-26-114 2006 season, could almost close the gap between the Tigers and the Indians, especially when you consider that the player Cabrera is replacing at third base, Brandon Inge, had a VORP that decreased from 15 to 9.4 during the same span of three years. A good rule of thumb is that ten runs equal an extra victory, so by being 60 points better than Inge in terms of VORP translates to Cabrera providing possible wins while manning the hot corner in Detroit next season.

However, pitchers can be measured by VORP as well, which measures their performance over replacement-level pitchers. And Dontrelle Willis’s atrocious 2007 season- 10-15 record with a 5.17 ERA in 205 innings- led to a miserable VORP of 0.7. That’s right, Dontrelle’s entire performance last year couldn’t even be ranked one win higher than a replacement pitcher. In fact, Dontrelle contributed more with his bat- a hitter’s VORP of 14.7- then he did while on the mound last season. Unfortunately, pitchers don’t get to bat in the American League, so Dontrelle’s hitting prowess will all be for naught.

The Tigers’ desire to pry Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins makes sense. His talents, among other things, are undoubtedly immense, and despite playing half his games in spacious Comerica Park, Miggy should make a run at his first 40 home-run season. However, the silver lining of this deal for fans of opposing AL Central teams is the inclusion of Willis in the deal to land Miggy. It may be too soon to insinuate that Willis is “washed up”- he is, after all, just three years removed from a spectacular 22-win, 65.2 VORP season in 2005. But by all indications, Willis should struggle in his first season in the Junior Circuit, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Willis’s 2008 season mirrors the numbers he put up in 2007 very closely.

However, there is one additional player new to the Tigers’ roster that will help the team in its hunt to return to the postseason. The Tigers traded prospects Jair Jurdjens and Gorkys Hernandez to the Braves for shortstop Edgar Renteria, who’s fresh off a season that included a .332 average in 124games. Renteria’s 2007 season translated into a 47.5 VORP, and with Renteria’s persence at shortstop, Carlos Guillen can be repositioned at first base, where his 45 VORP replaces the 9.6 VORP compiled in 143 games by current free-agent Sean Casey.

‘Ah ha!’ say all those Tiger fans reading this. ‘With the combined 71.8 VORP ratings obtained in the trade for Cabrera and Willis, along with the Net increase of 38 VORP through a Renteria-Guillen combo over a Guillen-Casey combo, the combined VORP of nearly 110 equals, roughly, 11 wins, eclipsing the eight-game between the Tigers and the Indians. The AL Central is ours! Mwahahahahaha!” Not so fast, denizens of the Motor City. While on the surface, that arithemtic appears to be correct, I worrisome counter-balance to the Tigers’ off-season offensive improvement is the step backwards taken by the Tigers’ pitching staff in 2007, which was offensive in an entirely different manner.

Coming into the 2007 season, the Detroit Tigers were my prohibitive favorite to represent the American League in the World Series. One year removed from a series of on-the-mound meltdowns in the 2006 Fall Classic, the Tigers’ pitching staff- which by all indications appeared to be the youngest, deepest, and most talented in the league- would ensure the first World Series title to come to Detroit in over twenty years. However, with the exception of Justin Verlander, who followed up his 17-9, 3.63 ERA Rookie of the Year campaign in 2006 with an even better 18-6, 3.66 season in 2007, the Tigers’ pitching staff showed they were not ready for prime time, as their aggregate implosions sealed the Tigers’ fate of falling short of the playoffs in 2007 rather than making their second consecutive World Series for the first time in over seventy years.

After his breakthrough performance in 2006 (14-8, 4.08 ERA, 202 strikeouts in 214 innings), former 19-game loser Jeremy Bonderman’s 2007 appeared to be even better as he started off the season 10-1 record through mid-July. However, Bonderman won just one of nine decisions the rest of the season, eventually getting shut down after he gave up six runs in less than two innings in a start against Seattle in mid-September. Bonderman ended up with an 11-9 record and an ERA nearly an entire run higher than his previous season. While Bonderman may not approach those 19 losses he compiled as a rookie in 2003, expect his struggles to continue in 2008 as he searches for a way to right his ship.

Kenny Rogers, the heart and soul of the Tigers’ rotation as he compiled a17-8, 3.84 season in 2006, dealt with health problems in 2007, as The Gambler was limited to just 63 innings in 11 innings. At the age of 42, it has to be wondered just how much juice is left in the tank of the craft left-hander. Nate Robertson, recently signed to a three-year $21 million extension, struggled to follow up his 13-13, 3.84 season in 2006, as he finished with a 9-13 record and a 4.76 ERA. Robertson should be able to reach double figures in 2008, if nothing else. Zach Miner and Mike Maroth, who combined for a 12-8 record and 4.59 ERA in 147 innings in 2006 combined for an 8-6 record in 2007 before Maroth was dealt mid-season to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Perhaps the highlight of the Tigers’ pitching staff in 2007 was the emergence of Chad Durbin, a former 16-game loser in 2001 with the Kansas City Royals. Filling in for Rogers in the rotation, Durbin provided 128 solid innings over 36 games, including 19 starts, compiling an 8-7 record and a 4.72 ERA. Unfortunately, the Tigers allowed Durbin to leave as a free agent this off-season, and Chad signed with the Phillies, where I wouldn’t be surprised if he further establishes himself as a starter, perhaps filling in for another ancient left-hander in Jaimie Moyer.

And despite the incredible success, don’t expect Verlander to continue the .673 winning percentage he’s amassed in his first two major league seasons. Although Verlander was able to avoid a “sophomore slump” in his second season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a few lumps in his third go-around. Don’t be surprised if his winning percentage is more close to the .500 level, while amassing a dozen or so wins.

The reason why I expect the Tigers’ starting pitching to be unable to rebound from its step backward in 2007 is the state of the team’s bullpen, which looked incredibly dominating in 2006 but decidedly less so one year later. The absence of closer-in-the-making Joel Zumaya had a profound effect in the bullpen, as the loss of his 1.94 ERA over 83 innings in 2006 was never quite replaced as he recuperated from off-season injuries sustained from playing “Guitar Hero”. This led to a constant in flux scenario regarding the set-up position for closer Todd Jones, with Bobby Seay’s 2.33 ERA in 46 innings over 58 appearances coming close to a respectable performance. But Seay’s season was not nearly enough to compensate for the lack of Zumaya’s dominating performance, as the ERAs of Fernando Rodney (3.52 to 4.26) and Jason Grilli (4.21 to 4.74) increased from 2006 to 2007, and Tim Byrdak’s respectable 3.20 ERA was not enough to replace free agent defector Jaimie Walker’s 2.81 ERA in 2006. In short, the bullpen was not as reliable in 2007 as it was the year before, and the questions that continue to surround the bullpen cause doubt with the Tigers’ ability of its pitching staff to compete with the two-headed beast of Sabathia-Carmona that heads the Cleveland Indians’ staff.

With Zumaya suffering further injuries this off-season, requiring surgery and postponing an appearance with the team until mid-season, the questions that dogged the Tigers’ bullpen in 2007 will continue in 2008. As for closer Todd Jones, the veteran followed a 37-save season in 2006 with 38 saves in 2007 and was brought back on a one-year contract during the off-season. The fluid status of the Tigers’ bullpen appears not to have affected Jones’ save totals, even if his ERA has more than doubled from 2.10 with the Marlins in 2005 to 4.26 last season. Jones should still be able to rack up saves in 2008, however as he is turning 40 in the first month of the season and his considerably less-than-dominating SO/9 IP ratio of 5.5 in his last three years as a closer, it needs to be wondered just how much gas Jones has left in the tank. Either Seay or Grilli may be pressed upon to fill in as closer at some point in 2008, but they will probably more likely become familiar with their roles in the Tigers’ bullpen, leading to improved numbers that what they compiled in 2007.

Upon reflection of the impact Zumaya’s injury had on the club last season, major league owners and management may require a “no Guitar Hero” clause in contracts to accompany the anti-motorcycle and other extreme sports clauses currently in contracts. According to Hardball Times, Zumaya added 12 win shares to the club in 2006, which was instrumental for the club to snatch the Wild Card and an eventual pennant. Those 12 win shares attest to Zumaya’s dominance in 2006, a performance that was only half equaled by the six win shares compiled by Seay, his replacement in 2007. Six wins, interestingly enough, were all that separated the Tigers from the Yankees, last year’s Wild Card winner. And though it’s hard to insist that Zumaya’s absence directly led to the poor performance of the Tigers’ entire pitching staff, the numbers are there to definitely make such a case.

It’s unfortunate that- echoing the 2006 World Series- the performance of the Tigers’ pitching staff derailed the team’s chances to compete in 2007, as the team’s offense last season provided many thrills for Tigers fans.  The 882 runs compiled by Detroit’s explosive line-up last year was good enough for second place in the league- beyond the Yankees- and the most scored bya Tigers team in 14 years.  In fact, Detroit’s offense last season probably could be the only one in the league that could be compared, statistically, to the heavyweights of the Yankees and the Red Sox in the American League East last year.  And with the discussion of VORP provided by Tiger newcomers, next year’s offense should only be better.  Indeed, four players topped 100 runs for the Tigers last year, with Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield doing the trick.  The last time that number of Tigers topped the century mark in runs was way back in 1950. (The 1984 World Series champs, by the way, had zero players topping 100 runs.) 

Granderson and Polanco ccreate a formidable one-two combination at the top of the line-up.  The athletic Granderson placed third in the league with 122 runs, and had at least 20 doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases, a rare feat that was also matched by NL MVP Jimmy Rollins last year.  There is little reason to think that Granderson won’t continue roping extra base hits in 2008, though it should be wondered if his 26 stolen bases were a statistical aberration, or if he will continue to include speed as part of the talents that he brings to the table. 

Granderson set the table for Polanco, who was the toughest player in the league to strike out for the second season in a row, as he batted a career-high .341.  Consistently underrated, in 2007 Polanco had a career year as he topped 200 hits for the first time, reached his first All Star Game (thanks, in part, to the AL squad being helemd by Tigers mananger Jim Leyland), and also picked up his first Silver Slugger award.  With a decade of experience beneath his belt, Polanco appears be reaching the peak of his game.  Look for Placido to psossibly even improve on his numbers in 2008, as he makes a stab at his first career batting title.

Of course, Polanco will have to wrest the batting title out of the hands of his teammate Magglio Ordonez, who I feel was wrongly denied the AL MVP last season.  (While Alex Rodriguez had a fine season, isn’t he expected to hit 50 homeruns and 100 RBIs on an annual basis?  Why should he be rewarded just for meeting expectations.)  At one point universally despised around the Detroit region as a $75 million debacle (the amount of the contract he signed in the 2005 off-season) as he was limited to just 82 games in the first year his five-year contract, Ordonez backed up the solid numbers he had 2006 with a number of career highs in 2007, including runs (117), hits (216), RBIs (139), doubles (54), walks (76), on-base percentage (.434), slugging percentage (.595), and, of course, batting average (.363) for his first batting title.  The question is what can Magglio do for an encore, as nearly any numbers he puts up will bound to be disappointing to some extent.  He should still hit for a high average in 2008, and will be able to rack up RBIs batting in the middle of this line-up, but it appears that he’s not as much of a 30-home run threat as he was earlier in his career, and this will continue to reflect in his extra base totals as they will trend towards doubles over home runs.

As th final player to top 100 runs last season for the Tigers, Gary Sheffield appeared to start the season energized to be reunited with Jim Leyland, who he won a World Series with in 1997 as a member of the Florida Marlins, in an off-season trade from the New York Yankees, who he appeared in just 39 games for in 2006.  Gary was batting .291 with 24 home runs and 69 RBIs by mid-August.  However, shoulder injuries severely limited his performance the rest of the way as he batted just .167 with one home run and six RBIs the rest of the season as the Tigers flailed away for a postseason berth, watching the Wild Card slip from their grasp.  Always a dangerous hitter- even at the age of 39- it needs to be considered that age and a career that’s been marked with numerous battles with injuries is finally catching up with Sheffield’s effectiveness with a bat. 

As discussed above, by moving Carlos Guillen across the diamond from shortstop to first base, the Tigers have addressed the weaker parts of their line-up.  Guillen has turned into a solid players sicne the Mariners traded him to the Tigers in exchange for Ramon Santiago, the baseball equivalent of three magic beans.  An All-Star in 2007, Guillen set career highs in home runs (21) and RBIs (102), and is always a threat to reach double figures in doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases, as well as driving Mariners fans crazy.  Sean Casey, who Guillen is replacing at first base, might be one of the nicest players in baseball- earning the nickname “The Mayor” to his talkative nature at first base- but his skill set has delined since his days of competing for a batting title with the Cinncinnati Reds in the late 1990s.  In recent years, Casey has struggled to reach a .400 slugging average, which is a negative mark for a first baseman, explaining why Casey is currently languishing on the free agent market.  The Tigers are much improved with the decision to have Guillen man first.  

That’s not to say the Tigers’ line-up isn’t devoid of any weaknesses.  Future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez may provide a veteran prsence behind the plate, but that didn’t prevent a negative slide by the Tigers’ pitching staff last year.  Plus his .281 batting average, while respectable, is a far cry from the .334 mark that I-Rod put up in 2004, his first season with the Tigers, and his nine walks and a sub-.300 on-base percentage in over 500 plate appearances indicates a poorer strike zone judgement.  Jacque Jones returns to the American League and takes over in left field for Craig Monroe, who was dealt mid-season to the Cubs last year.  While Jones should benefit from the line-up and hit for a high average, his collapse from 27 home runs in 2006 to just five last season causes concern that the Tigers may have inserted a punchless bat into left field. 

Though there is enough firepower in the line-up to compensate for a lack of punch provided by Jones, the Tigers may give more playing time in left to Marcus Thames, just two years removed from a 26-home run season, or Brandon Inge who, despite his usual low average, could sniff 20 home runs if given enough playing time.  Other bright spot on the Tigers’ bench include Mike Hessman- who is perhaps the epitome of a quad-A player, compiling 254 home runs over 12 minor league seasons- and 27-year old infielder Ryan Raburn, who has compiled 104 home runs in seven minor league seasons.

In the final analysis, the addition of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Edgar Renteria doesn’t guarantee a division title for the Tigers, though the team may see more seats being filled due to the attraction of its new stars.  However, what the Tigers’ off-season acquisitions does ensure is the transfer of the balance of power in the American League, from the East to the Central.  The Tigers should be able to overcome their pitching woes and claim their second American League Wild Card in three years, and face off against the American League East winner.  Perhaps the dispute over which team is the best in the AL Central can be decided in an ALCS pitting the Tigers against the Indians next season, the first of possibly many such playoff match-ups in the future.