2008 Team Previews: Florida Marlins

What happened to the Florida Marlins?

Just two years ago, the Marlins arrived at spring training with a young roster full of question marks and an unproven first-year manager. The baby Fish were written off by the national media, with some pre-season forecasts summing up the team’s chances as “Ugg”-ly, making a play on the the last name of team’s new second baseman. By consensus opinion, the Marlins were going to be lucky to win 60 games back in 2006.

But something happened along the way towards conventional wisdom. As it turned out, the Marlins’ starting rotation was a compilation of talented young arms, with four starters, none over the age of 24, winning at least ten games in at least 20 starts. The fifth starter, Anibal Sanchez, also reached double digits in wins, including a no-hitter, in only 17 games. The rookie manager, Joe Girardi, proved himself to be a brilliant, no-nonsense clubhouse strategist, providing the perfect attitude to whip a young talented team into shape. And that “Ugg”-ly second baseman? All Dan Uggla did was hit .282 with 27 home runs, making the Arizona Diamondbacks wince for leaving him unprotected in the Rule V draft as Uggla was both an All-Star and third in Rookie of the Year balloting. All of this led to respectability, as the written off Marlins finished the season with 78 wins, finishing just shy of .500 but also only ten games away from a playoff spot.

However, 2006 was two seasons ago. In the time since, Joe Girardi was dismissed from the managerial helm, despite winning Manager of the Year award for his efforts in defying expectations for his team. Obviously, the front office was displeased with having a manager who would argue with owner Jeffrey Loria from the dugout as Loria voiced his displeasure with an umpire’s calls from his front-row suite. This strained relationship led to Girardi’s removal, replaced by Fredi Gonzalez, who has proved to be more acquiescent to the demands of the front office than Girardi.

Besides even more than the managerial change, a key development that had more of an impact on the team’s record from the 78 wins picked up in 2006 to the 71 wins in 2007, was the collapse of the team’s starting rotation. After 2006, the Marlins looked to be set with a foursome of young, talented starers for years to come. However, a year after their impressive showing, the Marlins’ cadre of young starters struggled mightily. Injuries derailed a number of arms, with only Scott Olsen and Dontrelle Willis to survive the season unscathed, both ending up with identical 10-15 records.  However, the two had increased ERAs that demonstrated their struggles, as Willis finished with a 5.17 ERA (1.30 points higher than the 3.87 ERA he had in 2006) and Olsen with a 5.81 ERA (1.77 points higher than his 2006 ERA of 4.04).

After picking up 12 wins in 31 games, including 24 starts, in 2006, Josh Johnson appeared in only four games a year later before Tommy John surgery derailed his 2007 season, and will force him to miss all of the 2008 season as well.  Ricky Nolasco’s 2007 season was also disrupted by injuries, twice being forced onto the disabled list with right elbow inflammation, and appeared in only five games after winning 11 in 35 games, including 22 starts, in 2006. And after compiling a 2.83 ERA in his 18 games,and 17 starts including his no-hitter tossed against the Diamondbacks, Sanchez compiled a 4.80 ERA in six starts in 2007.

A cavalcade of auditions to replace the Johsnon-Nolasco-Sanchez trio occurred throughout much of the 2007 season, with most of the work falling on the shoulders of Sergio Mitre, Byung-Hun Kim, and Rick VandenHurk, combining to put together a 18-20 record in 63 starts and 5.41 ERA over 340 innings. The constant turmoil of the team’s pitching is a big reason why the team’s ERA, after finishing fifth in the league with a 4.37 ERA in 2006, ended up 15th in the league with a 4.94 ERA one year later.

The Marlins enter 2008 with continued concerns regarding their pitching. With the trade of Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen becomes the team’s de facto “ace” even though he’s a number three, at best, starter for an average major-league starting rotation. Being matched up against other teams’ best pitchers is going to hurt Olsen’s win-loss record, not to mention that of the club’s overall record. Mitre actually posted respectable numbers in 2007, carrying a sub-3.00 ERA through mid-July and finishing the year with an ERA+ of 93. Mitre has been on the fringes of various major league rotations throughout his career before establishing himself in his 27 starts last year. 2008 could be the season where Mitre establishes himself at the head of the Marlins’ rotation which, in the end, isn’t saying very much.

Young left-hander Andrew Miller was one of the main selling points in Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis swap with the Tigers, along with young outfielder Cameron Maybin. Miller was the highest-ranked pitcher in the 2006 draft, and signability issues prevented him from being the number one over-all pick. With the team’s rotation issues coupled with the fact that the Marlins traded the team’s heart-and-soul for him, it should be expected that Miller will get an immediate chance to prove himself in the Marlin’s rotation. And immediate results will likewise be expected. Unfortunately, the high expectations might be unfair for a player turning 22 at the end of August. There’s no doubting that Miller can pitch- limiting minor league batters to 73 hits in 83 innings, to go with 70 strikeouts- but my expectations for Miller are tempered just slightly. He’ll put up competitive numbers in his first time as a full starter in the bigs, but expect a losing record along with a 4.00 ERA and a ton of walks.  Still, if the team is able to get 34 starts and 200 innings from Miller, he’ll provide a steadying influence on the starting rotation.

The Marlins’ rotation is rounded out by Mark Hendrickson- a perennial loser with a lifetime .439 winning percentage, and who had a 4-8 record and 5.21 ERA in 39 games, including 15 starts, for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. Somehow, Hendrickson has never been able to translate his 6′9″ frame into a dominating mound presence similar to Randy Johnson’s, and expect Mark to pull double-duty in the rotation for the Marlins, helping out in the rotation and the bullpen. If he’s like he might pick up a half-dozen wins or saves, but don’t expect a low ERA. Dutch native VandenHurk, who turns 23 in May, is too much of an unknown quantity to figure out for 2008 which may work to his advantage, and Nolasco’s health will be watched closely as a rotation spot is considered for him. Nolasco contributed a 5.70 ERA in 24 innings over seven games this fall for the Peoria Saguaros, so it appears the Marlins are being careful with the young hurler who has compiled a .667 winning percentage while striking out 601 batters in 601 minor league innings.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Ricky spends most of the season in the rotation at Albuquerque as the team ensures he is healthy enough to reclaim his spot in the Marlin’s rotation.

If there was one saving grace for the Marlins’ pitching staff last season, it was the team’s bullpen, without which the starters would’ve compiled even lousier records. After Joe Borowski packed his 36 saves off to the AL Central champs Cleveland Indians, Kevin Gregg- who had just 120 games of relief in a variety of roles- was tapped to be the team’s closer. Gregg promptly responded with 32 saves and 87 strikeouts in 84 innings, despite an 0-5 record. Gregg may not get as many save opportunities in 2008 as he did in 2007, but I’d expect continued strong peripheral numbers. Besides, Gregg had a solid group of set-up men, including Lee Gardner (1.94 ERA in 62 games), Taylor Tankersely (3.99 ERA in 67 games) and Matt Lindstrom (3.09 ERA in 71 games), ensuring the smooth transition of late inning leads into Gregg’s possession. The same group is returning in 2008, and I’d expect continued strong performances from them all.

It’s unfortunate that the Marlins’ pitching struggled as it did, as it resulted in an explosive offense by the Marlins’ line-up being wasted. The Marlins slugged 204 home runs in 2007, good enough for fourth in the league while setting a franchise record. However, despite the power on display, only Miguel Cabrera was able to top 89 RBIs. His run-producing abilities will sorely be missed.

Dan Uggla followed up his All-Star rookie season with a .245 batting average and 167 strikeouts. Even though he’s a 30-home run threat, it appears that his swing has some huge holes in it, dooming him to low a batting average in the major leagues. Josh Willingham reached the 89 mark, to go along with 21 home runs and .265 average. Willingham has showed prodigious power in the minor leagues and, at 29, should step up his production in 2008. He should top 30 home runs and approach 100 RBIs with an average in the .280-.290 range, easing the loss of Cabrera a bit.  Jeremy Hermida, another young player that the Marlins are pinning high hopes on, hit .296 with 18 homers in 123 games last year, and both power and average should improve if he’s able to play in more games next year.

But perhaps the crown jewel in the Marlin’s line-up is Hanley Ramirez, who has gone from top Red Sox prospect to Rookie of the Year winner to MVP candidate in a few short years. Last year was a ‘coming out’ season for Hanley as he compiled a .332 average with 29 home runs and 82 RBIs, to go along with 51 stolen bases for the second season in a row. Hanley has compiled numbers in his first two seasons that are the stuff of legend, yet it’s hard to believe he just turned 24. Hanley reminds me of the next coming of Alfonso Soriano, except with a superior skill set. Hanley’s combination of speed and power is so impressive, that not even is a 40-40 season within his grasp, but I wouldn’t even be surprised if Hanley is the first major league player to reach the 50-50 level. (You heard it here first.) Hanley’s presence in the line-up alone keeps the Marlins respectable, regardless of how their pitching shakes up in 2008.

As I mentioned above regarding Adam Miller, the other prospect picked up from the Tigers, Cameron Maybin, who will turn 21, will get on-the-job training in the Marlins’ centerfield, which has been a sore spot for the team the past few years. Cameron has exhibited some impressive power and speed numbers himself, with 23 home runs and 52 stolen bases in 192 minor league games, but he appeared over-matched as he batted .143 in 24 games with the Tigers, including 21 strikeouts to three walks. Expect Cameron to have some growing pains as he eases into regular playing time.

Mike Jacobs, who has never really delivered on that promising 30-day span in which he slugged .710 with the New York Mets in 2005, returns at first base. Will 2008 be the year Jacobs tops the .270 mark with the Marlins? Jorge Cantu is the projected starter at third base. Though it will be tough, obviously, to fill Miguel Cabrera’s old position, Cantu is just three years removed from a 117-RBI season with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Cantu spent last season in the minors between the Devil Rays and Reds organizations, so it’s hard to say how he will respond to a possible full-time starting position. If Cantu falters, Jose Castillo provides back-up, but his declining stats (including a homerless 2007 season in 87 games) with the Pirates don’t present him as much of a palatable option. Neither does Alfredo Amezaga, whose speed is worth more coming off the bench rather than starting. Amezaga spent most of 2007 manning centerfield, one of the reasons why that position has been such a weak spot for the team.

The Marlins are also taking a chance with Mike Rabelo behind the plate. Rabelo, also picked up from Detroit in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis, hit .256 in 51 games with Detroit last year, and appears to be a quad-A player at best. He’s getting a crack at time behind the plate, but has to battle for playing time with Matt Treanor, who will probably get more of the playing time, even if the numbers he puts up more closely match his career marks (.236-.329-.323) then what he put up in 2007 (.269-.357-.392).

Due to the fact that the Marlins are planning on starting a number of players who would be better off on the bench, it’s clear their bench isn’t very deep.  However, one bat that the Marlins have that poses a threat belongs to Cody Ross, who has always has supplied power in the limited playing time he’s received but last year  he provided a .355 average  and an eye-popping 1.064 OPS. Although Ross will primarily be used  off the bench, he should also see time in the outfield when Maybin needs a break.

In the end, it might be all to easy to once again dismiss the Florida Marlins’ chances for 2008, just like it was two years ago.  However, though the team took a step backwards last year, it was only by seven games which could easily be made up, especially with an offense led by an ever-improving Hanley Ramirez.  It’s less likely that the Marlins will take another seven-game step back, but their final win total should be somewhere within the range of 2006’s 78 wins and last year’s 71.  Considering that they’re playing in the wide-open National League East, a division that lacks a clear dominating team, if manager Fredi Gonzlaez can quickly shape and mold the nucleus of young players into a contender sooner than later, than you might hear some noises from South Florida as the Marlins could potentially challenge for a playoff spot in 2009.