2008 Team Previews: Los Angeles Angels

Ah, conventional wisdom, you funny thing. You make yourself so undeniable and so obvious, so smug in your assurances that only fools can defy you. For anyone to buck conventional wisdom is almost akin to laughing in the face of God. And when conventional wisdom is challenged or surpassed- like, say, the Giants besting the Patriots in a nail-biter of a Super Bowl- it almost has an effect of challenging basic laws of physics, such as the law of gravity as the feeling is similar to having the world be upside down.

However, conventional wisdom in baseball is a funny thing. Short playoff series have proven that an underdog team that’s gotten hot at the right time can easily best heavily favored opponents. Pythagorean records demonstrate that teams can defy logic and post a better record than what they should’ve, with the converse showing that lousy bullpens can easily ruin great offensive seasons and doom a team to a losing record. Statistical research has also allowed further insight into a player’s numbers, showing that a .300 hitter can still be remarkably ineffective. (Jose Vidro, I’m looking in your direction.)

The Los Angeles Angels have made a habit of denying baseball’s conventional wisdom over the last five years, ever since they won the World Series in 2002 on the arms of a 20-year old rookie reliever with six major league innings to his name, and of a 23-year old rookie who started and won Game Seven of the Angels’ first championship. Despite falling to third place attempting to challenge for their crown in 2003, the Angels have finished in either first or second place in the four-team AL West since 2004, despite having an offense that finished no better than seventh in the league in runs scored. That poor showing in runs scored was stopped last year, when the team finished fourth in the league in runs, despite having just one batter, Vladimir Guerrero, finish with more than 20 home runs, 100 RBIs, and a .500 slugging percentage.

As great as Vlad’s 2007 season was- and it was a good enough for a third-place finish in the AL MVP balloting- Vlad had his fewest number of runs (89), home runs (27), and stolen bases (with the former 40-stolen base man finishing with just two) in a full season of his career.  Besides limiting his offensive numbers in 2007, the injuries that Vladimir Guerrero dealt with forced him to be the team’s primary designated hitter for the majority of the final month of the season. While injuries to his hand, wrist, right elbow, and left shoulder may be a lot to fully recover, they didn’t prevent Vlad from that third-place finish in the AL MVP balloting.
Conventional wisdom dictated that despite a high batting average and a superior understanding of the strike zone, some portions of Vlad’s game- power and speed- were going to continue to disappear. Vlad’s power would decline as long as he was continued to be surrounded by slap-happy .300 hitters who offered little protection in the Angels’ line-up, while his speed was negatively impacted on the injuries he had amassed throughout his career. To put a halt to Vlad’s declining power, the Angels needed to land a big bat and insert some protection for Vlad into their line-up.  With help from the protection offered by free-agent signee Torii Hunter’s bat, Vlad should make a run at the league’s batting title while having a slugging average well above .500.  Regardless of how much playing time Vlad receives in 2008, with the protection provided by Hunter in the lineup, Vlad will put together a typical Vlad-like season.

The Angels spent a good portion of the early off-season making overtures to the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera, before landing Hunter, perhaps the off-season’s most prized free agent. A year after throwing a five-year, $50 million contract to Gary Matthews Jr. to man center field, the Angels inked Hunter to a five-year, $90 million contract, thus creating a logjam at center field in Angels Stadium. (Too bad the Angels’ lost out on Andruw Jones for a potential trifecta on free agent center fielders.) The Angels will have to find enough playing time for the four outfielders affected by this logjam: Hunter, Matthews, Guerrero, and longtime Angel veteran Garret Anderson, the franchise leader in hits, doubles, total bases, and runs batted in.

Regardless of this logjam, the dividends of signing the most sought after free-agent will pay off for the Angels. There was some criticism directed towards the Halos for the length and the amount of the contract they inked Hunter to, as $90 million seemed like a steep price to pay for a player who had never topped a .300 average, hit more than 31 home runs, or slug higher than .524. However, Hunter’s numbers at Angels stadium are slightly better than his career numbers, and when it comes to his new AL West opponents, he has wielded a big bat in Rangers Ballaprk and at Safeco Field. (Hunter has struggled at spacious McAfee Stadium, but with the collection of pitchers the A’s will trot out this year, every batter will have an equal opportunity to shine in Oakland.) At 32 and coming off a season in which he set career highs in runs, hits, and extra bases, don’t be surprised if Hunter establishes career marks in home-runs, RBIs, and batting average in 2008, with Guerrero offering protection that Hunter never saw in Minnesota.  And regardless of the offensive numbers he’s posted- or failed to reach- in his career, it’s hard to overlook Hunter’s seven Gold Gloves as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game.

Matthews is currently projected in the team’s depth chart to be second in the running at all three outfield spots, and may end up having to settle to receive the majority of his at-bats as perhaps the most expensive designated hitter in the league.  Of course, one of the main reasons why the signing of Hunter was needed was because of Matthews’ inability to offer a protective bat for Vladimir Guerrero last season. After a breakthrough 2006 season with the Texas Rangers (.313 average, 194 hits, 69 extra bases), injuries had a negative impact on Matthews’ 2007 totals as his average tumbled sixty points to .252 as Matthews, despite playing in just seven fewer games than in 2007, was limited to 100 fewer plate appearances and twenty-five fewer extra-base hits. Acting as the team’s primary designated hitter may ensure Matthews to be injury-free for 2008, and if he’s able to stay in the line-up for most of the year and reach 600 at-bats while in the #2 spot between lead-off man Chone Figgins and Guerrero, Matthews should top the century mark in runs while delivering the blend of power and speed he exhibited in 2007, possibly coming close to reaching the 20-20 mark.

At 36, Garret Anderson, for all intents and purposes, should be the team’s designated hitter, but he has been reluctant to leave the field, and by virtue of seniority he will continue to man left field, the position that he has laid claim to over the past 13 years. Anderson’s 2008 season will be scrutinized closely by the team, as they have an option for 2009 remaining on Anderson’s contract. This option will be picked up if Garret is able to post numbers for all of 2008 that approach those that he had in the second half of last year, which included a .305 average, 13 home runs (after hitting just three in the first half), and a .892 OPS, not to mention posting 10 RBIs in an August game against the Yankees. Old man Garret obviously has some life in his bat, and he should benefit from the addition of Torii Hunter in the line-up as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Garret post his best power numbers in five years, topping 20 home runs, ensuring himself of at least one more year in an Angel uniform. If the team knew any better, they’d sign him to a three-year contract to serve as the team’s designated hitter, spending the length of his possible Hall of Fame career as an Angel.

Those are the big bats for the Angels, competing for starting outfield spots while being lumped close to each other in the line-up. The rest of the Angels’ line-up doesn’t offer much in the way of intimidating bats, though there is no way to deny the speed, on-base skills, and overall peskiness found in the rest of the line-up, skills that help manufacture runs even with an absence of power bats. And the peskiest batter of all would be their lead-off man, Chone Figgins, who last year somehow managed to overcome a start of the season in which he staggered through the first two months, with fractured fingertips keeping Chone to a sub-.200 average at the start of June. All Chone did from the beginning of June to the end of the season was hit .376, finishing with a .330 average, the sixth-highest in the league. I doubt Figgins will reach an average that high again in 2008- Figgins’ Hardball Times page has his BABIP last season at an astronomical .391, beating his previous high by nearly 50 points- but an average in the high .280s/ low .290s with 40+ steals should be expected as Figgins continues to serve as the Angels’ catalyst.

After the outfield bats and Figgins, however, the rest of the Angels’ line-up is reduced to a cast of unknowns, question marks, and prospects who should have delivered some time ago. Reggie Willits was a revelation last season when, in 136 games, the slap-ball hitter posted a .293 average and stole 27 bases as he finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting. However, Willis’s complete lack of power (he has zero home runs in 475 major-league at-bats) and the overcrowded outfield pretty much ensures that Willis will not see that much playing time in 2008. As a bench player and the team’s primary pinch-runner, Willits will post an average in the high .280s and steal a dozen or so bases, but he’ll be lucky to reach 200 at-bats.

First baseman Casey Kotchman is one of the Angels’ prospects that hasn’t quite delivered. After putting on hitting clinics as a young player rapidly rising through the Angels’ minor league system, Kotchman’s major league career has been beset by injuries and a severe bout with mononucleosis in 2006. Still, 2007 showed indications that Kotcman may have finally arrived after years of high expectations, hitting .296 with 50 extra bases in 137 games. Still, I am hesitant to be confident that Kotchman has arrived until he can prove himself to stay healthy and show that last year’s numbers, including a .300+ BABIP, are a trend rather than an aberration. Casey’s power will continue to develop in 2008, but don’t be surprised if it comes at the expense of his selectivity as Kotchman may succumb to the pressure to prove himself.

Howie Kendrick is another prospect who has yet to realize his full potential in the majors, with injuries limiting him to just 160 career major leagues games.  In the minor leagues, Kendrick has post Boggsian numbers, with a .359 career average over 375 minor league games. Kendrick was given the chance to be the Angels’ starting second baseman in 2007, but a pair of hand injuries derailed his season. It will be interesting to see if Kendrick can finally deliver in 2008, as he should post a batting average high above .300. It remains to be seen, however, if he’ll post that average in 50 games or 150 games. The more Kendrick plays, the better for the team’s chances.

Shortstop will be a position in flux in 2008. The Angels opened up the position when they dealt Orlando Cabrera, who after signing a free-agent contract prior to the 2005 season had perhaps the three most productive seasons at short for the Angels since Jim Fregosi manned the position three decades ago, to the White Sox in exchange for John Garland. Erick Aybar is listed as the front-runner to be the starting shortstop, though he’s probably just keeping the place warm for Brandon Wood, the 23-year old uber-prospect whose emergence allowed the Angels to deal Cabrera. Wood offers the most power potential ever by an Angels shortstop, but a concern could be his batting average. Baseball Prospectus lists his EQA (Equivalent Batting Average- how a minor league average would translate to the majors) in the .240s range, and Wood’s career 2.7 strikout-to-walk ratio in the minors leagues does not demonstrate commanding plate discipline. Wood’s arrival on the major league level has been trying Angel fans’ patience, and if Wood becomes the starting shortstop, he could demonstrate 30-home run potential. However, he’d probably be buried down on the Angels’ line-up, so a lack of RBI opportunities (after the bases are cleared by Guerrero and Hunter) plus a low batting average would not lead to the RBI numbers that should accompany his power. The best thing you can say about Wood is that he’s incredibly young, and 2008 will hint at the promising career he has in store for him, with him laying claim to be the starting shortstop in 2009 more likely.

Catching duties will be split between Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli, both who have hinted at prospect status in the past. Mathis was projected as the Angels’ “catcher of the future” after he hit .315 with an .870 OPS in the minors in 2003, and followed that up with 21 home runs two years later. However, Mathis has never been able to stick in the major leagues, compiling a .197 average in 87 games over three seasons. I wouldn’t expect much  from Mathis in 2008. Mike Napoli is another young catching prospect who has demonstrated tremendous power in the minor leagues. Napoli has struggled to match that power with an effective batting average, however, and hamstring troubles limited him to 75 games last season. Napoli and Mathis will split backstop duties, with Napoli providing a slight edge in offense.

The make or break for the Angels’ chances in 2008 is their pitching staff. It has been because of the quality of their arms that the Angels have been able to hang tough in their division over the past six years, winning three division titles and coming in second twice. The staff is led by ace John Lackey, who last year topped the American League in ERA while posting a career high 19 wins. Lackey has posted a 31-19 career record against AL West teams, and the reliable starter has not failed to make 32 starts over the past five years. As long as Lackey remains his consistent reliable self, the Angels shall remain competitive at the top of the division. If he suffers from injuries or prolonged fatigue, however, then the Angels’ ability to compete in the division is doubtful, despite the improved line-up.

And that is only because the Angels do not have a solid starter to step up if Lackey is unable to stay at his top form. Yes, last year Kelvim Escobar posted a career-high 18 wins and a career-low 3.40 ERA, but Escobar has struggled with inconsistency throughout his entire career, and the chances of him repeating those numbers in 2008 are slim, especially with shoulder soreness costing Escobar the first month of the season. Expect an ERA in the high 4.00s from Escobar, which showcases the lack of depth in the Angels’ rotation behind Lackey.

New addition Jon Garland is penciled in the number three spot in the rotation.  Garland is the type of pitcher who’s fortunes depend on the quality of the teams he pitches on.  A former 18-game winner with the Chicago White Sox, reaching that mark twice in 2005 and 2006, both seasons in which the White Sox topped 90 wins.  Yes, Garland’s .679 winning percentage on those two teams is a marked increase than the .566 winning percentage compiled by the White Sox in those two years, but in the other four years, Garland was a sub-.500 pitcher (46-49, .484) on a sub-.500 team (322-326, .497).  Garland fits the definition of league-average pitcher, and trading perhaps the most productive shortstop in franchise history for him when the franchise is stocked with promising young arms may prove to have a boneheaded negative effect on the team’s offense, thus resulting in Garland winning ten games at best.

The young arms in the Angels’ rotation offers promise and potential. But a warning case could be made of Ervin Santana, who followed a promising 16-8 record and 4.28 ERA in 2006 with a disastrous 7-14 record and 5.76 ERA in 2007 (including a horrid 1-10 record and 8.38 ERA on the road), which included a brief demotion to the minor leagues. Although Santana couldn’t possibly be worse in 2008, if he doesn’t show any signs of improvement, it’s doubtful he’ll be in the Angels’ rotation for an extended length of time.

Santana’s situation showcases the dangers of having high expectations from young pitchers. Jered Weaver may have a career .727 winning percentage in 47 starts, but the league has yet to provide a serious challenge to him in his brief career. If American League hitters begin to start figure the youngest Weaver out in 2008, and he posts numbers similar to those of his older brother Jeff’s, how does that bode for the Angels’ chances? Jered’s player comparisons (excluding 19th century pitchers) on his baseball-reference page had a composite .571 winning percentage at the age of 25. If Jered’s winning percentage takes a steep hit, it’ll match with a decline in the team’s winning percentage as well.  Twenty-seven year old Joe Saunders is the team’s fifth starter, and he has compiled a .652 winning percentage in 33 career starts.  He has yet to make more than 18 starts in a season, and it remains to be seen how he can hold up if he’s kept in a rotation for an entire season.

The Angels’ bullpen is led by Francsico Rodriguez, who is arguably the best closer in the game.  In his final year of arbitration, the 26-year old flamethrower will receive $10 million from the Angels as he is all but guaranteed to test the free agent market in the 2008-09 off season.  Last year, K-Rod posted 40 saves, a total that was a step back from the league-leading saves totals that he posted in 2005 and 2006.  Expect Rodriguez to rebound in his contract year and lead the league in saves once again, possibly even posting 50 saves.  The inability to lock up their young dominating closer to a long-term contract could prove to be a huge loss for the Halos this off season.

Set-up man Scot Shields has been rumored to be Rodriguez’s replacement upon K-Rod’s possible departure.  Long a reliable arm in the bullpen, Shields has averaged just shy of 71 appearances over the past four years.  Such extended use may explain why last season Shields posted his highest ERA (3.86) in his lowest innings total (77) during that span.  Shields will be scrutinized closely this season as questions about whether he can withstand the rigors of being a closer will be raised if he is unable to halt the decline in his peripherals and revert to the dominating form he exhibited a couple years ago.

Thirty-three year old right hander Justin Speier, who has posted ERAs under 3.00 the past three years and a WHIP under 1.00 in two of the last three years, may be moved into Shields’ set-up role and could even challenge Shields for the right to replace K-Rod as closer.  Other names in the bullpen include veteran Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley, and former number-one pick Chris Bootcheck, who at 29 has lost the shine off his luster, comprising a serviceable, if not spectacular, relief corps.

It may seem odd to question the Angels’ ability to defend their American League West crown, a title they have won in three of the past four years.  Indeed, the addition of Torii Hunter in the lineup will provide the ability for both Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero to post the numbers necessary to make a case for the MVP.  And the competition for playing time in the outfield could transalte into a rvialry leading to higher production for Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews, Jr.  However, it is unlikely that Chone Figgins will have a BABIP in the .390 range again, and last year’s overlooked sparkplug Reggie Willits has been reduced to a bench player due to Hunter’s addition.  Although the replacement of Orlando Cabrera at short with Erick Aybar will have a net negative impact on the offense, whether that impact will be large or small remains to be seen.

The Angels’ chances to once again lay claim to the division title depends largely on the ability of the pitching staff’s arms to maintain their past effectiveness and avoid injury.  If the pitching staff faces any adversity in 2008, the division title will slip from the Angels’ grasp.  Otherwise, they are the defending champs it will be very tough to knock them off their perch overlooking the AL West.