Zack Greinke: A Case Study

Zack Greinke is an interesting cat.

With his blend of four “plus” pitches- fastball, slider, changeup, and a sloooow curve- the Royals picked him out of high school with the seventh pick in the 2002 draft (just before Prince Fielder). Kansas City was really high on Greinke’s development, and with good reason as The Sporting News named Greinke the Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2003 when he racked up a 15-4 record and 1.93 ERA as a 19-year old. Greinke’s major-league debut was much hyped in 2004 and he more than held his own as a 20-year old, posting a 3.97 ERA in 145 innings. However, while playing for a horrid Royals team in 2005, Greinke bottomed out, posting a 5.80 ERA while leading the league with 17 losses.

Having such a dismal year would be quite traumatic for a 21-year old who is having whispered comparisons to the make-up of Greg Maddux. I’m not sure if his 2005 season shattered his confidence or not, but ultimately Zack withdrew himself from the team in 2006, citing depression and social anxiety as an explanation as to why he couldn’t work well with others, a debilitating condition for someone on a baseball team. The Royals, understanding the talent they had on their hands, provided counseling and psychological help to Greinke throughout the 2006 season, which was a rare example of a pitcher taking a year to deal with problems that weren’t Tommy John-related.

Eventually, Kansas City eased Greinke back into competitive baseball, splitting his time between the rotation and the bullpen last season, in which he compiled a 3.69 ERA in 122 innings with a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while relying primarily on his hard stuff. This year’s Baseball Prospectus stated that if Greinke is able to work the slow offerings he displayed as a 20-year old rookie with the dominant form of last year, the Royals could have a Cy Young contender on their hands.

Three starts into the season, Cy Young talk and Greg Maddux-in-his-prime comparisons don’t seem quite outlandish.  Over three starts, Greinke has allowed just 17 hits over 24 innings, and allowed just two runs, one on a solo shot, and another that scored when Ichiro legged out a potential double play in last night’s 5-1 Royals victory, giving Greinke his first complete game of the season. With the dominant, untouchable form Greinke has displayed in the early going, it is quite clear that the investment that the Royals have made into this young talent is paying dividends.

Greinke was absolutely sick in last night’s game, as for the second night in a row the Mariners’ were absolutely stymied by a young emerging pitching talent. In nine innings, Greinke tossed 107 pitches, 74 went for strikes. Anything that was left over the strike zone was promptly slapped into the ground, as Greinke had a 16:6 groundout-to-flyout ratio, which all but ensured that any rally efforts made by the Mariners would be quickly nullified. There is an old saying that in baseball, good pitching will beat good hitting. And, which has been displayed the last two nights at Safeco Field, will have its absolute way with the Mariners’ weak offense.

By giving up three runs in six innings, and not walking a batter, Jarrod Washburn definitely pitched well enough to in in any other situation in which he wasn’t matched up against Greinke. Jarrod only made two mistakes, which were deposited over the fence by Billy Butler and Miguel Olivo, both hitting their first home runs of the season. Olivo’s two run shot was the difference of the game, and it makes sense that his bat would beat the Mariners, considering that in 104 games that he played with Seattle, Miguel batted .176 with a .323 slugging percentage, so of course he’d wield the big bat last night to help back Grienke’s outing.

‘Highlights’ for the M’s- if you can call it that- include the first outing by R. A. Dickey in a Mariner uniform, with the knuckleballer striking out Mark Teahen to conclude a scoreless ninth. Dickey, along with Arthur Rhodes, was added to the roster in a series of moves made by the Mariners earlier in the day, which included putting Mike Morse and his dislocated shoulder on the fifteen day DL, and doing the merciful thing by demoting Eric O’Flaherty to Double-A West Tenn where, hopefully, the left hander can regain his confidence.

The Mariners have a chance to halt their two-game slide and salvage a split in the two-game series in today’s game, when Miguel Batista and John Bale, both winless in two decisions, face off against each other on the mound.  For a change, the Mariners are facing a pitcher who has been hit hard this season, with Bale allowing a .367 average against so far in 12 innings.  In his only career appearance against the Mariners- tossed over six years ago- Bale allowed two runs in four innings in a relief appearance, and of the current Mariner batters to have faced Bale, Richie Sexson has enjoyed the greatest success with a triple and three RBIs in four at-bats against the left-hander.  Miguel Batista, meanwhile, has only two career appearances against the Royals, tossing three scoreless innings while picking up a win in his only decision.

While I like the M’s chances in this match-up then in the past two against Greinke and Saunders, with the struggles the Mariners’ offense has been put through in the past two games, it may be too much to expect the bats to spring alive in today’s game.  This game might be decided by the teams’ bullpens, which puts the Mariners at a decided disadvantage. (Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez, and Joakim Soria have combined to toss 14 scoreless innings from out of the Royals’ pen.)  Final score: 5-4, Royals.