Nick Markakis single-handedly defeats M’s, 3-2

Obviously, Nick Markakis’s big swing off Ryan Rowland-Smith in the eighth inning was the decisive hit of the game.  But was it the turning point, or just the final one?

According to yesterday’s Fan Graph, the win probability began dipping towards the Orioles’ in the seventh inning.  That coincided with Sean Green relieving Carlos Silva, who had been cruising along before being forced out with tightness in his right thigh.   Or perhaps the key turning point was in the fourth inning, when the M’s had runners on the corners with one out and a run in, but were unable to push any more runners across the plate.  As the WP graph showed, that was an early peak for the M’s that was matched an inning later when the Orioles blew a two-on, no-out situation, but the game was decidedly in the hands of the Orioles from that point on.

Markakis jacked the first pitch he saw from Rowland-Smith in the eighth inning and that shot coupled with a dominating eight innings tossed by Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera was all the Orioles needed to preserve a 3-2 victory.  Cabrera greatly benefited from an expanded strike zone by home plate ump Brian Runge, as he tossed his first start without a walk since last May and the fifth straight quality start by an opposing starter against the M’s.  George Sherrill picked up the save, his seventh on the season and fourth against his former team.  Like it or not, the Orioles have had the M’s number so far in 2008.

The M’s get their chance to beat up on Adam Loewen in tonight’s game, who after allowing 12 walks and 16 hits in 15 innings, had his start on Tuesday pushed back to be given some time to work on his command.  Given Loewen’s career numbers against Seattle- 0-1 record with a 7.36 ERA, 12 hits and five walks in 11 innings, including four earned runs (and home runs by Joses Vidro and Lopez) in 4.2 innings against the M’s on April 5th- more time for Loewen to rest could benefit his performance tonight.

Jarrod Washburn and his pitiful 3.25 average in run support from the M’s offense is taking the hill for Seattle.  Despite winning six of ten career decisions against the Orioles, Washburn has had trouble getting the M’s bats to rally to his side.  Washburn has allowed just 30 base runners in 24 innings, and has allowed more than three runs just once in his four starts, but has just a 1-3 record to show for his efforts.  Against the Orioles on April 4, Washburn allowed three runs, including a home run to Kevin Millar, in five innings as the M’s lost by an eventual 7-4 score.

Don’t expect anything different in tonight’s ballgame.  Adam Loewen is a highly suspect candidate to toss a quality start against the M’s, but that seems to be the rage these days.  Look for the M’s bats to put up a feeble attempt to score some runs, bu the Orioles will come out on top.  I’m calling the final score to be 5-4, Orioles.