Silva: Not just bad, but horrible

So this is what $12 million gets you in the majors these days. Seven hits, seven runs, two outs. My trepidation about having Silva face the Tigers was justified, but I had no idea he was going to contribute a stinkeroo on such an epic scale.

Still, I’m not going to wring my hands about just how lousy Silva is as a member of the M’s starting rotation. In fact, I’m going to point out the positive contributions he brings. I mean, think about. In some pitching staffs, after one pitcher tosses a brilliant game, there is an unspoken challenge raised to the other starters to try and step up and either match or top the performance. Silva, in all his selfless credit, must have decided to to put Bedard’s dominant two-hit outing from Wednesday in the most positive light possible by tossing batting practice pitches to the Tigers’ formidable line-up. If such outings earns a $12 million per year paycheck, Bedard could be justified demanding Johann Santana-type money. If Bedard sees such an up tick in his value, he would have Silva to thank.

Despite Silva’s selflessness, it must be discouraging for the offense to be blown out of the game before they even get a chance to step up to the plate. To the credit of the M’s batters, they battled back against Detroit starter Nate Robertson, scratching across four runs on four hits- including two solo home runs by Adrian Beltre- as Robertson was unable to pitch through the sixth inning. And with R.A. Dickey pitching 5.1 scoreless innings in long relief, the M’s were actually able to make a game out of it. By keeping the Tigers from scoring for the rest of the game, the ten-run blowout was avoided. But still, as yesterday’s Win Probability graph indicates, the M’s were out of this one from the get go, probably wishing they could have a “do-over” as Rick Rizzs mused on-air. A negative .400 Win Probability from your starting pitcher equals to a long night for both the team and its fans…

I have no clue what the Mariners should do with Carlos Silva. It’s not as if Silva hasn’t stunk before, as his disastrous 2006 season (11-15 record, 5.94 ERA in 180 innings) resulted in a WARP (Win Above Replacement Pitcher) of just 1.4. Considering that Erik Bedard averages a WARP of 7.3 the last two seasons- and could conceivably sniff a 9.0 WARP by pitching half of his starts at Safeco- the result is Silva constantly canceling out any gains Bedard offers to the pitching staff.

The Mariners have certainly made their own bed by signing the long-term contract with Silva, and now they have a mes on their hands. If they continue to trot him out every fifth day, that means they pretty much are out of one-fifth of their remaining games for the rest of the year, if not for the next three years. For any degree of success, Silva would best be off pitching in as few high-leverage situations as possible. But $12 million per year is far too much to be paying for a garbage time pitcher.

Another option is to bust Silva back down to the minors and led him rebuild his confidence. But again, the heft of Silva’s contract prevents that option from being realized. And that is typically something you do with talented yet under performing prospects (see Roy Hallday and Edinson Volquez) not 29-year olds with seven years at the major league level.

The best course of action would be for SIlva to be banished to the bullpen Barry Zito-style. (Always in the need for perspective, just be glad that the M’s aren’t on the hook for that contract.) The question is, who would replace Silva in the rotation for a start or two, allowing Carlos to re-learn how to get people out in low-leverage situations? Management has all ready decided to not move Brandon Morrow into the starting rotation, at least not this year, preferring to allow Morrow to build arm strength and continue to improving his control. (That’s actually all right in my book, as I’ve read Morrow likened to be a poor man’s Joba Chamberlain.)

Despite Ryan Feierabend’s hot start at Triple-A Tacoma, the numbers posted by right handers against Ryan at the major league level last year (.366-.421-.640) actually makes for the argument to keep Silva in the rotation. Instead, the only member of the bullpen who has starting experience and could fill in for Silva for a start or two would be DIckey, who made a case for himself with his five effective innings last night and was quietly impressive in his only start so far this season, allowing just three first inning runs against the Angels as opposed to seven.

As I write this, the second game of the series has gotten underway, with the Tigers having two runners reach in the first against Felix Hernandez, who responded by striking out the side. With a match-up pitting Felix against Justin Verlander, today’s game could be decided in the late innings, in which case the M’s might- might, I say- have a chance.

Here’s a piece of weird news: With his two home runs last night, Adrian Beltre and his twelve home runs combines with Richie Sexson’s nine homers to tie David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez for the second most home runs hit by team mates with 21, second behind the 24 slugged by the White Sox’ Carlos Quentin, with his league-leading 14, and Jim Thome, who has ten homers on the year. And this comes with Richie batting and even .200 while missing time due to a five-game suspension and being benched in favor of Miguel Cairo, who may provide more contact but certainly offers no sense of a power threat.

One last bit of weird news: The Kansas City Royals are currently on a twelve-game losing streak, and still have a better record than the Mariners. Yes, it’s been that much of a lousy season for the M’s so far…

Three singles and a walk in the bottom of the first have led to a 2-0 lead over the Tigers’ Verlander. Woot!

Washburn’s turn to be skipped against Tigers

Considering that Detroit has a 7-3 record against left-handed starters, manager John McLaren has decided to pass up Jarrod Washburn’s turn in the rotation against the Tigers this weekend.

The plus side is that Washburn will avoid a possible repeat of his two-inning, 12-hit, nine-run outing that he produced against the Tigers two starts ago.  The caveat, however, is that Washburn’s next turn to pitch will come after Erik Bedard in the Angels series.

Washburn has stated disdain for starting after another left-handed starter, contending that batters can get too comfortable if they see two left handed starters in a row, and cites the poor outings he had pitching after Horacio Ramirez to back up his concerns.  McLaren shares these concerns as well, so don’t expect Washburn to be pitching after Bedard for an extended period of time.

Wladimir Balentien’s on-base streak

This is weird.

As Jesse Baumgartner pointed out in the “tidbits” section in his preview of tonight’s M’s-Tigers match-up at Safeco for the Mariners’ website, Balentien’s double in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over the Red Sox stretches his streak of reaching base via hit or walk to 17 games.  In a line-up populated but hack-n-slashing free swingers, Balentien’s ability to get on base on a consistent basis should be a good thing.  But what’s odd is that since the streak began on May 8, Balentien’s average has dropped nearly thirty points, his slugging percentage by nearly 100 points, while his OBP has increased by forty points.  He also has a 20:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span, while collecting just 12 hits in 62 at-bats.

If you just looked at his numbers, you wouldn’t know Balentien was having some sort of on-base streak.  I always thought such streaks were a good thing, and helped a players’ stats….?

Baumgartner points out that the pitching staff has rebounded from a stretch of poor outings, a streak that could continue through the Tigers’ series.  I suspect tonight’s start by Silva will have to be watched through fingers covering your face.  Yes, it will be that scary.  About as scary as that new movie “The Strangers” looks.  Have you seen the preview for that?  It looks almost- not quite, but almost- as scary as Carlos Silva starting against the Tigers.

As for another, better, streak: by picking up the loss Wednesday night, Tim Wakefield is now winless in 18 starts against the Mariners, a streak that stretches all the way back to 1997.  Crazy, huh?

Down on the farm

With the mess that this year’s Mariner season has devolved to, it is every bit likely that the team will be “sellers” as the summer lurches on and contending teams are looking to add bonus parts as they gear up for possible playoff pushes. That means a number of current Mariners could soon be wearing different uniforms- such as Cha Seung Baek, who is now dressing up in a Padres’ uni for the rest of the season. (Jered Wells, let me be the first to welcome/ apologize for you showing up in the Northwest.) If such a turn of events were to occur, I thought it would be interesting to examine the Mariners’ farm system and check out the musty gems tucked away who could possibly be regulars for the M’s in a matter of months, if not weeks….

High Desert Mavericks (24-29, 3rd place)- A streaky club, the High-A Mavs have sandwiched a five-game winning streak between two three-game losing streaks as the club has struggled to stay in contention, remaining a game behind in the California League’s weak southern division.

The Mavs’ offense has been propelled by 20-year old Dutch native Gregory Halman, a power-speed threat who has compiled 27 extra base hits in 196 at-bats over 51 games for an .890 OPS, to go along with 20 stolen bases all ready on the young season. That mark would be higher if Halman could improve on his 60:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Obviously seasoning is required, as such lack of selectivity at the plate would be exploited if Halman were to be rushed to the bigs this summer. Halman has been compared favorably to Magglio Ordonez in the past, but the M’s should be patient with this talent. He should be at Double-A West Tenn by the end of the season.

Carlos Triunfel, the M’s 18-year old shortstop of the future, has been having a wicked May, going 26-for-70 for a .405 average. The slender teenager has yet to exhibit power, as he is homerless on the season (and in his minor league career) and is currently sporting a .354 slugging percentage. Still, a 16:9 walk-to-strikeout split demonstrates excellent plate judgment. Triunfel has been called the best pure hitting prospect in the Mariners’ system, and as this is his second go-around at High -A, expect that batting to average to climb as the summer progresses.

The Mavericks’ ace is 23-year old U-Dub product Kyle Parker, who has compiled a 5-1 record and a 4.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 63 innings. Considering his age and league, however, that ERA should be drastically lower, and the fact that he has allowed ten earned runs in eleven innings over his last two starts is disconcerting. Parker isn’t probably going to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter, tops, and as such it could be argued that he could fill that position now. But it might be better to keep him on the farm in case, you know, *something* could be coaxed from Parker. Otherwise, I see the second coming of Ryan Franklin.

On the bullpen front, there is no raw numbers that indicate a dominating pitching presence. But, then again, we are talking about the California League, which has been historically brutal to pitchers. Such reality may color Parker’s numbers a bit.

Tacoma Rainiers (26-26, 3rd place)- After a stretch that saw the Triple-A club lose seven of eight games, the Rainiers have won three of four to even up their record. Unfortunately, they are looking at a steep 8.5-game deficit from the Salt Lake Buzz, the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate.

We all know that Jeff Clement was hitting up a storm at Tacoma before getting called up to the big club, where he struggled to post a .200 average. After getting demoted a little over a week ago, Clement has continued tearing up Pacific Coast League pitching, immediately ripping off an eight-game hitting streak in which he batted .344 while clubbing four home runs and ten RBIs. There is no doubt that Clement can flat-out hit (check out that 27:17 walk-to-strikeout ratio, resulting in an other worldly .500 OBP!) and if he stays behind the plate, Clement’s ceiling has been likened to that of Jorge Posada. Of course, the M’s went along and did a stoopid thing like sign 32-year old Kenji Johjima to a three-year contract, so who knows what is in store for Clement and the team’s long term plans. Short time, at the first sign of any injury, Clement is a phone call away and his hefty bat should be welcome back into the line-up, where time should be given for it to show signs of life at the major league level.

If Sexson gets traded before the end of the season, it is unlikely for Clement to fill that position due to his lack of experience. Instead, 25-year old Bryan LaHair could lay claim to be the M’s first baseman of the future. LaHair may lack the power traditionally expected at that position- the only time LaHair has topped 20 home runs and a .500 slugging percentage in a full minor league season was as a 22-year old in the California League- but if Bryan could improve his strikeout:walk ratios, the M’s might be better off with a doubles hitter who gets on 35 percent of the time manning first base. That sounds a lot like the skill set of John Olerud, who manned the corner during the last time the Mariners had a stretch of winning teams. The M’s have had a number of first baseman who exhibited the “three true outcomes” old-man skill set, with varying degrees of success: Richie Sexson, Paul Sorrento, Pete O’Brien, Alvin Davis. The one constant factor is that those players manned first base for the M’s during an extended stretch of mediocrity. Having LaHair be Sexson’s heir apparent at first might just be what’s best for the team’s long-range plans.

After clearing waivers Charlton Jimerson is continuing to rack up home runs and stolen bases down at Triple-A. Granted, the eye-popping 46:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio makes it clear why the frustrating Jimerson has underperformed and is only hitting .256, but has compiled six home runs and eleven stolen bases in 32 games.

Despite a rough start to his major league career which has included a 6.92 ERA in 66 big-league innings, left-handed fireballer Ryan Feierabend is showing why he has tossed so many innings while just approaching the legal drinking age. Feierabend has a career 2.36 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 641 career innings, a ratio that shrinks to 1:1 in the bigs, an indication of pitching while intimidated when he took the hill for the Mariners. Currently, however, Feierabend is absolutely owning the PCL in his second go-around, currently placing second in the league in ERA (2.15) and WHIP (1.04) as he has won four of his first five decisions. As I continue to watch Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista pitch the Mariners’ offense out of games by the fourth inning I’m beginning to wonder if Feierabend could do any worse….

After posting a microscopic 0.83 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 33 innings over six starts for Double-A West Tenn, right handed starter Chris Jakubauskas earned himself a promotion to Tacoma. At 29, Jakubauskas should all ready be in the number five spot for a major league rotation or at the very least throwing middle inning relief rather than starting against minor leaguers nearly ten years younger than him. Yet, the move to Tacoma hasn’t stopped Jakubauskas’s success so far as he has won two of three decisions, as Chris has allowed just 27 hits and nine walks in 31 innings.

Similar to High Desert, there has been nobody currently making a mark for themselves in the Rainier’s bullpen.

West Tenn Diamond Jaxx- (33-20, leading the Northern Division of the Southern League by a game above the Huntsville Stars)

The Diamond Jaxx’ hot start to their season could be pinpointed to the bat of 26 year old Thomas Hubbard, currently placing second in the league with a .360 average in 136 at-bats over 39 games. His age may call into doubt his prospect status, but that batting average represents a huge improvement in strikeout-to-walk ratio, which he has cut nearly in half. Simialr to Lahair, Hubbard’s power at first may not exactly wow anybody, but a lifetime .375 OBP in 460 minor league games is nothing to dismiss.

Michael Saunders, a 21-year old center fielder, has been having a hot May, batting .326 and slugging .554 in 92 at-bats for a .924 OBP. Known primarily as a speedster during his progression through the minors, this display of power is a welcome addition, although his dreadful 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio is keeping in line with his career averages, so obviously Saunders could benefit with extended time on the farm. Besides, the M’s have a certain center fielder who is not going anywhere soon.

The Diamond Jaxx staff is anchored by the impressive performance by 29-year old right hander Rich Dorman, who should be dominating low-level minor leaguers with his advanced age. Southern League hitters should be crying foul when they are forced to face Dorman, as with his 50 hits allowed in 70 innings, he’s kept opposing hitters in check to a .195 batting average, and with twenty walks allowed Dorman has a WHIP just a tick below 1.00. Dorman is a nine-year minor league veteran with a smattering of success on occasion, but who has yet to reach the major leagues. Wouldn’t it be nice to see Dorman suit up in a Mariners uni at the end of 2008, perhaps sooner if the season doesn’t get turned around for them?

After getting knocked around in his first attempt in the Southern League last year, 27-year old Mumba Rivera has figured the League out while solidifying himself as the team’s closer. Rivera’s nine saves currently ranks fourth in the league, and his peripherals- 2.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP- are much improved over the 5.27 and 1.63 respective marks he posted with the Diamond Jaxx in 2007.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (21-27, 15 games behind the Clinton Lumberkings)- Like the parent club, 2008 has been a difficult season to stomach so far. Early season weather problems wreaked havoc on Wisconsin’s schedule, causing a number of postponements and double headers to be played. Their current road trip has seen them drop seven of nine decisions, as the Timber Rattlers have dropped into a deficit that they are all but sure not going to be able to claw out of.

The team lacks any consistency when it comes to its offense, with its 153 runs scored the fewest in the Midwest League by a wide margin. Daniel Carroll, the M’s third round draft pick last season, was off to a great start, batting .339 with ten stolen bases in 15 games before disappearing from the roster. Most likely due to an injury, but I am unable to find any information regarding Carroll’s absence. Whatever the reason, the loss of Carroll has been disastrous for the club, as no player has slugged more than three home runs or is posted an OPS higher than .800. Prized infield prospect Alex Liddi is having a nightmarish start to the season, as the 19-year old is struggling mightily to bat .215 while striking out in roughly one third of his at-bats.

the Timber Rattlers’ pitching staff, however, has been quite good, allowing the team’s scuffling offense to stay in most of the games. The staff is led by 19-year old wunderkid Phillipe Aumont, the M’s first round pick from last year, who is mowing down to the Midwest League to the tune of a 1.74 ERA and .179 opponents’ average allowed in 31 innings. On three separate occasions so far this year Aumont has tossed at least three hitless innings, and its clear that he has very little to prove in the Midwest League. The question is whether Aumont should be promoted to the Southern League and help the Diamond Jaxx make a run at a division title and league championship, or have the Quebec native try his hand at solving the California League, a league that can damage the psyche of the most talented of pitchers…?

Michael Pineda, a 19-year old right hander, has also had a great start to his 2008 season, allowing just three earned runs through his first 35 innings. All Pineda has done in his first 100 minor league innings is win nine of twelve decisions while posting a 2.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, as well as a 80:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Wisconsin’s trifecta of salival pitching prospects continues with Juan Ramirez, a 19-year old right hander who is mired with a 3-3 record despite allowing just 39 hits and 14 walks through 51 innings. Juan may have a career 6-10 minor league record, but he has allowed just 100 hits in his first 127 innings. It makes you wonder what the records of these pitchers might be if they were on another team’s staff, and just how horrid the Timber Rattler’s record would be without them.

So there you have it, the producers down on the Mariners’ farm so far this year. While there is a high likelihood we will see some- LaHair, Dorman, Feierabend- suit up for the Mariners before the season is through, the others we will have to bide our time on the others making their big league debut. Do you remember how excited we all were when Felix finally made his arrival? times that by three, and that’s what it will be like in two or three years when Aumont, Mineta, and Ramirez break onto the scene….

And let’s not forget that the Everett Aqua Sox and the new Pulaski Mariners have yet to get their short minor league seasons under way!

The Mariners did what? Against who?

I’m sure you are all aware, but there might have been a few Mariners fans so disgusted with the team’s play that they have taken a sabbatical from FSN in recent evenings. In case you are one of those who insisted on a self-imposed sabbatical of all news regarding the Mariners, I’ll just have to break the news to you gently:

The Mariners have won two consecutive one-run games. Against the Boston Red Sox. Yes, that’s right, the defending world champions Boston Red Sox. Including last night’s brilliant 1-0 victory- the first time that the M’s have won by that score in nearly three years- in which Erik Bedard pitched like the ace that we all frothed over when we got him in exchange for the team’s future, as the Canadian left-hander limited Boston’s line-up to just two hits over seven innings.

I know! Amazing, huh? After dropping eight of their first nine one-run decisions, the M’s have won four of their past six. And instead of taking two weeks to get to 20 wins the team only needed two nights, tying the San Diego Padres as the last major league team to reach that mark.

Bedard might have dialed his best start in a Mariner’s uniform, but Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield put up an impressive outing as well. In a complete game loss, Wakefield limited the M’s to five hits and one run- the type of outing that would’ve gotten the win against the Mariners any other night this past month. Instead, Wakefield was the victim of poor timing, as his brilliant outing came at the expense of the M’s tossing their first shutout of the year. The M’s lone run against Wakefield came from the bat of Yuniesky Betancourt who, a day after showing visible anger for being pinch hit for in the ninth inning in the M’s 4-3 win on Tuesday, took Wakefield deep in the third inning. Manager John McLaren was quoted as saying for Betancourt to “prove me wrong” for lifting Yuni, and so Yuni did in providing the only offense in yesterday’s game.

The M’s get an off day to relish their two-game mini-streak, before the Tigers come to town. The Mariners are going to be looking to get back at the Kitties for the three-game sweep in the Motor City last week. To do so, it should be expected that Detroit’s lineup will score runs, but it is absolutely imperative for the Mariners’ line-up to tally up runs against Detroit’s pitching staff, which has struggled at various points this season.

Friday’s game pits Detroit starter Nate Robertson against Carlos Silva. Robertson’s turn in the rotation missed the three game sweep of the M’s last week, but considering Nate’s career 4-3 record against he M’s with a 3.66 ERA and 57 hits and 12 walks allowed in 52 innings, the Tiger’s back end starter would’ve had little problem continuing the streak if he had pitched. The benefit of an offensive explosion in a 19-3 drubbing of the Twins in his last start, this will Robertson’s first start against the Mariners at Safeco since a complete game 3-2 loss nearly two years ago, in which a two-run home run by Rene Rivera gave the M’s a chance. Mariners batters who should have a strong outing Friday include Adrian Beltre, who enjoys seeing Robertson pitch as he has five hits- all for extra bases- in 18 career at-bats for a .278 average and 1.094 OPS; Betancourt, who enjoys a .500 average and 1.333 OPS in 12 at-bats; and Ichiro, who has nine hits- all singles- in 28 at bats for a .321 average.

After dropping all four decisions in May, Carlos Silva could stand to benefit from the change of the calendar to June, a month in which he has posted his second lowest ERA in his career (3.91, compared to the 3.19 ERA he has in September). However, against Detroit, Silva has won five of nine decisions, with an ERA right at 5.00 in 76 innings, allowing 100 hits but with a encouraging 35:9 walk-to-strikeout split during that span. Silva has gotten battered around in his last two starts, allowing seven runs in both, including a four inning start against the Tigers in last week’s 12-8 win by Detroit. Indeed, in 26 innings over his last five starts over the past month, Silva’s ERA has jumped up from 2.79 to 5.14. Urgh.

Various Tigers batters have had their way with Silva’s offerings, especially Carlos Guillen who has owned Silva to the tune of a .516 average, 1.545 OPS, and 12 RBIs on 16 hits in 31 at-bats. (Luckily for SIlva, Guillen is suffering from a severe case of hemorrhoids, and may be resigned to the bench for the upcoming series.) Curtis Granderson (.308 average and 1.203 OPS in 13 at-bats) and Gary Sheffield (.928 OPS in 22 at bats) have also enjoyed success against Silva.

I’m sure the Mariners are giddy about being on the positive side of the win ledger for a change, and are looking to reach their first three game winning streak in a month, but I’m holding my expectations in check. We’ve learned just how impressive this Tigers line-up can be, and we’re all aware of the M’s struggles to score runs. Friday’s game won’t be pretty, as I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit wins by at least ten runs. My pick for the final score: Tigers 13, Mariners 4.

Oh, and some other good news. With their two wins bringing them up to the one-third mark of the season, the Mariners continue to match pace with the 1983 squad, on the way to a 60-102 record. Yay.

Memorial Day Weekend recap

So, how was your Memorial Day weekend?  Better than the Mariners’ I take it?

Of course, that’s not saying much.  You could’ve spent the three-day weekend at Abu Ghraib being sodomized with a cucumber while being forced to watch, “Clockwork Orange” style, an endless loop of “The Tyra Banks Show” and Richard Simmons infomercials and still you would’ve had a better weekend than the Mariners.

Holy moley, the team played 36 innings over the four day weekend and led in all of seven of them.  Five of those were in Sunday’s game, which only led to coughing up a late-inning loss to the Yankees thanks to J.J. Putz throwing away a infield dribbler off of Hideki Matsui’s bat.

On the plus side, the Mariners got their weekend losses to the Yankees over with early in the day, so the rest of us in the Northwest could get on with our lives, burdened with the knowledge that our summer will be completely devoid of anything resembling major league baseball.

In all four games, the Mariners pitching allowed a four-run inning at least once.  Saturday was a key match-up, as erstwhile ‘ace’ Erik Bedard  was knocked out after allowing nine runs in less than five innings in Friday’s 13-2 loss.  On Saturday, groundball pitcher Carlos Silva was facing off against future Hall of Famer, and considering Sunday’s pitching match-up pitted flyball pitcher Jarrod Washburn against Chien-Meng Wang who was perfect in seven decisions against the Mariners, it was integral for Silva to compensate for his poor start against the Yankees three weeks prior.  Instead, Silva allowed eleven hits and seven runs in six innings as the M’s were unable to take advantage of a weak outing from Mussina.

And, of course, Washburn contributed the only quality start of the weekend, keeping the Yankees in check for two runs over six innings for a badly needed win.  But, always looking to snatch defeat at the jaws of victory, yet another late-inning meltdown by Putz led to an 0-6 road trip.

Last night, the losing streak reached seven games and eight days.  Normally let down by a lack of run support, Felix Hernandez lost last night’s game by himself.  Granted, the anemic M’s offense scored only one run through eight innings against the Fat Man himself, Bartolo COlon.  But when the Red Sox posted their four spot in the eighth inning, they came up swinging and Felix happily obliged, delivering first pitch fastballs straight down the chute that was deposted off the Red Sox bats into the outfield for run-scoring basehits.  No off-speed stuff, no breaking pitches.  Just fastballs that when the Red Sox batters saw it, they hit it.  And therefore, another loss was wrung up.

I was wondering why 35,000 fans filled Safeco last night.  Granted, it was the Monday evening of Memorial Day weekend, but a strong message could be sent to the front office if 8,000 fans or fewer start filling Safeco’s seats.  Then I remembered that representatives of the stoopid Red Sox Nation showed up to gleefully celebrate the M’s seventh loss.  Great.  More money for the front office’s pockets, reaping financial success for a series of poor decisions resulting in perhaps the worst constructed Mariners team ever.  (Miguel Cairo as a pinch runner?  Really?  Was Charlton Jimerson just too expensive?)

The losing streak will not end tonight.  And a safe bet will be that the M’s will need a couple of weeks to top 20 wins.  Dear god, what a pathetic excuse for a major league team….

Worst Mariners team ever?

With yesterday’s 9-2 shellacking by the hands of the Tigers at Comerica Park, Detroit picked up its first three-game sweep of a Seattle Mariners baseball team in the Motor City in thirteen years. Similar to the series against the New York Yankees a few weekends ago, the M’s came to town facing a scuffling team struggling to score runs, only to be on the receiving end of a dominating three-game sweep. (The Yanks out-scored the M’s by a 19-4 margin over three games, while the Tigers tallied up a 30-14 spread in the last three games.) The loss also marked the fifth seperate time that the Mariners have had at least a three-game losing streak so far this season, while not having strung together three wins in a month.

This current streak will only continue as the M’s make another trip to the Bronx, in a pitching match-up that pits Erik Bedard against Andy Pettitte. Bedard has good career numbers against the Yankees (4-4 record with a 3.32 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 62 innings) that are slightly better than Pettitte’s career marks against the M’s (8-10 record, 4.81 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 120 innings). Look for Bedard to toss another quality start only to be let down by a lack of run support in tonight’s ball game. I’d like to say that the Yankees will eke out a close victory by a 4-3 margin, but the way things are going New York- who have won their last two after a two-game losing streak- should win by at least five runs.

All though the M’s aren’t mathematically out if it yet- there is, unfortunately, four more months of the season to muddle through- it will be interesting to use hindsight after the season to pinpoint just when the 2008 season ended for Seattle. I mean, the AL West was won with 94 wins by the Los Angeles Angels last year. To reach that mark, 76-34 for the rest of the season, a .691 winning percentage. It’s not as if it can’t be done- this franchise did win 72 percent of their games back in 2001, remember- it’s just that it won’t.

The club’s current winning percentage of .375 currently sets a pace worse than Bill Plummer’s 1992 squadron, and instead is on pace to post the lowest amount of wins since Renee Lachman’s 1983 Mariner squad tallied just 60 in 1983. That’s quite a collapse for a club that a near consensus of baseball ‘experts’ had picked to be a contender in the American League West prior to this season, and I thought it would be interesting to see how this current Mariner club would match-up against that 1983 team. With help from ESPN’s 2008 player projections, I thought it would be interesting to see if I would prefer to have the position player on the so-called “contender” Mariner squad, or instead the one from one of the worst teams in Mariners’ history.

While there are some worse won-loss records in Mariners history- the 1980 team lost 103 games and the 1978 team lost 104- in all three seasons that the franchise topped the century mark in losses, the winning percentage ranged between the .350 to .370 range, a difference of only four wins. I’m picking the 1983 club to compare to the 2008 version of the M’s as it is the most recent Mariners team to lose 100 games, and the winning percentages also more closely align. So, with no further ado:

First Base

1983 squad: Pat Putnam (.269-19-67)

2008 squad: Richie Sexson (.206-31-73)

Yes, we all know Big Sexy is the league’s most overpaid and under performing first baseman. We’re all aware of the fact that he’s hit .205 over his last 575 at-bats, and can’t get on base thirty percent of the time during that same span. He might have some power potential in the middle of the line-up, as he is the fastest to hit 100 home runs in a Mariner uniform. Yet his OPS has hovered around the .700 mark over his last season’s worth of games, a mark that shouldn’t be in the middle of the M’s line-up, much less pulling in a $15 million plus salary.

In comparison, in 1983 Putnam enjoyed the last productive season of an unremarkable major league career whose singular highlight was finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting as a first baseman for the Texas Rangers in 1979. Sexson may top Putnam in untranslated power numbers, but Putnam did manage to get on base nearly a third of the time and also posted a .774 OPS in 1983. In fact, Putnam had a ferocious May that season, batting .265 with five home runs and an .826 OPS, a far cry from the .178 average and .596 currently posted by Sexson so far this month.

I’m sure the 2008 M’s would be content with Putnam’s production, especially coming from a player who didn’t even sniff $15 million in his career.

Edge: ‘83 squad

Second Base

1983 Squad: Tony Bernazard (.267-6-30 in 80 games in mid-season trade for Julio Cruz)

2008 squad: Jose Lopez (.294-7-82)

Without a doubt, Jose Lopez (along with Raul Ibanez) has been one of the lone bright spots offensively in the first six weeks of the Mariners’ 2008 season. Still, even though Lopez may end up representing the Mariners at the All Star Game at Yankee Stadium by default, its not as if those projected numbers by ESPN are eye-dropping. It does, however, mark a return to form for a 24-year old who suffered from a taxing 2007 season, both physically and mentally. As the team’s most consistent hitter, Lopez has been dropped from his customary second spot in the line-up to third in an attempt to jump start Adrian Beltre’s bat. That said, some current Mariners will be wearing different uniforms by the end of the year, and with his combination of youth and talent, Lopez would demand quite a return in any trade talks. Don’t whine or moan. I mean, Billy Benae would be willing to deal Lopez in similar situations, shouldn’t the M’s be doing the same thing with a .375 winning percentage after nearly 50 games?

In comparison, Tony Bernazard is the answer to the trivia question of who the Mariners traded their franchise leader in stolen bases- now deposed- Julio Cruz for? After 80 unremarkable games with the M’s, Bernazard moved along to Cleveland where his infield presnece anchored some awful Inidans clubs during the 1980s.

No comparison.

Edge: ‘08 squad.

1983 squad: Spike Own (.196, 2, 21)

2008 squad: Yuniesky Betancourt (.262, 7, 55)

Yes, we’re talking about that Spike Owen. As a kid, he was one of my favorite Mariners. I mean- his name was Spike! What’s not to like?

The fact is, when you give half your team’s starts at shortstop to a fresh-faced 22-year old kid who struggles to hit .200 and get on base a quarter of the time, that’s going to be a direct cause in your team losing 100 games. A first round draft pick in 1982, Owen developed a reputation as a gamer and eventually became the team’s captain in 1986, before being traded to the Red Sox where he made his only World Series appearance. Owen never embarrassed himself with the glove, but he absolutely provided no offense throughout his career, with career highs of seven home runs and .422 slugging percentage. Heck, even in the “juiced ball” season of 1987, Owen tagged just two home runs while playing half his games at Fenway.

Its probably not fair to compare Betancourt to a 22-year old kid trying to right himself as a rookie in the majors. Betancourt wasn’t even playing professional baseball when he was 22, instead tearing through Double-A and Triple-A before arriving with the M’s as a 23-year old. Still, with a comparable glove and 162-game averages of .281-8-56 compiled over his two full seasons, Betancourt also provides Lopez’s blend of youth and skill and should also be considered a top priority for the M’s to trade.

Edge: ‘08 squad

Third base

‘83 squad: Jamie Allen (.223,4,21 in the only 86 games of his major league career)

‘08 squad: Adrian Beltre (.246, 31, 75)

Beltre’s ESPN projections have similar raw numbers with Sexson, but with a 40 point uptick in batting average, which translates to a 70 point increase in OPS. If those numbers hold, it would mark the first time in franchise history that the M’s would be getting 30+ home runs from their infield corner positions, positions that typically demand a power bat. Usually such production from both positions would coincide with a dominating, winning club. The fact that it would be tied to a projected 60 win team demonstrates just how awful this year’s Mariners club is. Beltre is signed through the next two years and, unlike Sexson, the production he provides is worth the $24 million owed, and as such is also a valuable trade commodity.

And you simply can’t compare Beltre to Allen, who hit .223 in his only 86 major league games, and who lost his starting spot to Darnell Coles (.283-1-6) for the last month of the 1983 season.

Edge: ‘08 squad

Left Field

1983 squad: Steve Henderson (.294-10-54)

2008 squad: (.291-24-105)

One of two Hendersons making up two-thirds of the Mariners outfield- with Dave Henderson in center- Steve Henderson set career highs in 1983 win 32 doubles, a .294 average, and a .450 slugging percentage. It says something about a player when his “career year” amounts to him being a league-average player.

If it wasn’t for the abundance of great outfielders in the American League, Raul Ibanez could be suiting up in a Mariners uniform during the Midsummer Classic rather than Lopez. Raul may have only two home runs so far this month after hitting five in April, but with a 10:10 striekout to walk ratio, Ibanez’s OBP has shot up forty points from last month and if he were to ever start getting some protection in the line-up could lead to another power barrage.

Clear edge: ‘08 squad

Center Field

‘03 squad: Dave Henderson (.269-17-55)

‘08 squad: Ichiro Suzuki (.294-7-37, 71 stolen bases, 105 runs)

By any indications, ESPN’s projections for Ichiro indicate a down year by the inhuman levels of production we’ve come to expect from our favorite Japanese import. Still, there is no comparison between Ichiro and Hendu, who as a 24-year old hinted at the power hitter he’d develop into in another five years.

Edge: ‘08 squad

Right Field

‘03 squad: Al Cowens (.205,7,35)

‘08 squad: Wladimir Balentien (.219,26,58)

A former MVP runner up as an outfielder for the 1977 Kansas City Royals, Cowens provided the only ’star’ presence in the M’s line-up, indeed starting off the season batting third.  However, a year after providing 20 home runs and 78 RBIs for the M’s, Cowens bat disappeared as did his presence in the line-up.  To give an idea of just how putrid this 1983 squad was, the third spot in the line-up was divvied up nearly equally with Cowens (38 starts batting third), Ron Roenicke (35 starts in the third hole while posting a .253-4-23 line), and Jamie Nelson (35 starts batting third with a .219-1-5 line).  Cowens bat and line-up presence returned in 1984 (.277-15-78) but in 1983, it was AWOL.

Balentien, meanwhile, is the Mariners’ future number three batter.  While he is currently displaying excellent power- seven of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases- he is also going through a learning process with off speed and breaking pitches.

Still, considering just how horrible Cowens was, I’ll have to give a slight edge to the ‘08 squad.

Catcher

‘83 squad: Rick Sweet (.221-1-22)

‘08 squad: Kenji Johjima (.217-8-45)

Its tough to knock Joh, as he was one of the most consistent hitting catchers during the 2006 and 2007 seasons.  But at 32 and with 1,300 games caught coming into this season, you have to think that three-year extension Joh received was a mistake, especially as it creates a 200 pound obstacle blocking the development path of former first round pick Jeff Clement.  That .217 average doesn’t bode well for the future, and certainly isn’t worth $24 million.

Rick Sweet was a journeyman whose final season in the big leagues was the .221 average he posted in 249 at-bats with the M’s in 1983, before fading away to irrelevance.

Perhaps a slight edge could be given to Johjima, though if Sweet had 500+ at bats he would’ve topped Kenji in both average and RBIs.  That is how horrible Kenji’s 2008 season has been so far.

Edge: Even

Designated Hitter

‘83 squad: Richie Zisk (.242-12-36)

‘08 squad: Jose Vidro (.208-8-79)

In 1983, Richie Zisk was a former All Star who was playing out the string with the M’s after thirteen seasons.  In 90 games, he was marginally productive as a DH- despite career lows in all three percentages, his power numbers would’ve equaled his output with the Mariners in his two prior seasons.  As it was, his final appearance in a major league line-up came in mid-August and then baseball said adieu for Zisk.

Still, the one thing about the position who’s entire purpose is to serve as an extra bat is that you have to hit.  It’s fundamental to be a designated hitter.  The fact that Vidro is currently sitting at an average one hundred points below his career mark with a .558 OPS that could be topped by more than a few National League pitchers (and probably a few American League ones as well) is embarrassing and one of the reasons why the M’s offense can’t score any runs.  Then again, Jeff Clement has the second-most starts as DH, and his ESPN projections give explanation as to his recent demotion.

Edge: ‘03 squad

Bench:

‘83 squad:

John Moses (.208-0- 6, 11 stolen bases in 93 games as a 25-year old)

Ken Phelps (.236- 7- 16, .449 slugging average in 127 at-bats)

Darnell Coles (.283-1-6 as a 21-year old)

Phil Bradley (.269-0-5 in 67 games as a 24-year old)

Harold Reynolds (.203-0-1 in 20 games as a 22-year old)

‘08 squad

Willie Bloomquist (.167, 0, 12)

Miguel Cairo (.176, 0, 34)

Jaimie Burke (.241, 10, 30)

There are simply no bats on the bench of this year’s Mariners team.  Jaimie Burke should obviously be getting the bulk of the starting time behind the plate, which would only add Kenji’s weak bat to the collection of sub-.200 hitters that are all ready riding the pine.  Besides the lack of production, the main difference between the two squads is that the role players for this year’s Mariners team are veterans, not 20-somethings.  They should all ready know how to hit a baseball by now.

Edge: ‘83 squad

Starting staff

Matt Young (11-15, 3.27 ERA as a 24-year old rookie)

Jim Beattie (10-15, 3.84 ERA)

Bob Stoddard (9-17, 4.41 ERA)

Mike Moore (6-8, 4.71)

Gaylord Perry (3-10, 4.94)

‘08 squad:

Erik Bedard (10-7, 3.24 in 24 starts)

Felix Hernandez (7-14, 3.34 ERA, 192 strikeouts in 34 starts)

Miguel Batista (10-20, 6.47 in 34 starts)

Carlos Silva (10-10, 4.91 ERA in 34 starts)

Jarrod Washburn (7-20, 6.99 ERA in 30 starts)

Nary a winning record on the 1983 staff, but that’s hardly a big surprise as the offense I dissected above would only allow Walter Johnson a .500 record, with all his wins coming as shutouts.  Felix’s projected 7-14 mark with a 3.34 ERA would be right at home on that staff.  But the projections are not too kind for Batista or Washburn.  Although it would be unlikely that either would lose 20 games- that would be a cruel part on behalf of manager John McLaren- it seems like a reasonable conclusion that it would be a mistake to let either pitcher make 34 starts.  That would be cruel to Mariner fans.  Despite getting quality starts in roughly half of the team’s first 21 games, the current M’s starting staff has been tossing batting practice to opposing teams on a regular basis lately.  It will be interesting to see if Felix can follow Mike Moore’s career path and develop into a Cy Young contender.

Edge: ‘83 squad

Bullpen

‘83 squad:

Bill Caudill (26 saves, 4.71 ERA)

Ed Vande Berg (3.36 ERA in 68 games as a 24-year old)

Mike Stanton (3.32 ERA)

Roy Thomas (3.45 ERA in 89 innings over 43 games)

2003 squad:

J.J. Putz (17 saves, 3.46 ERA, 61 strikeouts in 44 innings)

Sean Green (2.52 ERA in 84 innings)

Mark Lowe (4.00 ERA in 68 innings)

Ryan Rowland-Smith (2.78 ERA in 68 innings)

Arthur Rhodes (2.79 ERA in 31 innings over 52 games)

Brandon Morrow (1.74 ERA in 47 games)

Nowhere on this list do you see Eric O’Flaherty, who bombed earlier this year as the bullpen’s key lefty.  O’Flaherty is still young at 24 and is coming off a dominating 2007 season, so hopefully he’ll be back.

The 2008 bullpen has mostly been strong despite some occasional hiccups.  Mostly that was brought about by J.J.’s trip to the DL, which resulted in the reshuffling of the pen and people not sure what their role is.  It has settled down and has performed mostly well with the situations it has been handed, which mostly involved the starting staff coughing up the early lead to the opposing team and the bullpen trying to keep it close for the M’s to score some late runs.

In fact, that has been the modus operandi of the Mariners’ entire 2008 season, which will not lead to success, as the M’s have learned as they struggle to win four out of ten games.

Edge: ‘08 squad

In comparison between these two clubs, it’s quite clear that the 1983 Mariners were a team of transition.  The offense was horrendous, tallying up 558 runs- an average of 3.4 per game- which ranked last in the league by a good margin.  By comparison, this year’s club is on pace to score 662 runs, not nearly as lousy but a total that’s almost 130 runs fewer than the 794 runs scored by last year’s Mariners team.  The ‘83 Mariners saw Del Crandell replace Renee Lachmann have way through the year, being the team’s fourth manager in a span of four years.  The club was looking for an identity, and one that really wouldn’t be solidified until the emergence of Alvin Davis and Mark Langston on the 1984 squad.

This 2008 version of the Mariners wasn’t supposed to be a team of transition.  All the transitioning had all ready been done to the point that this year there could only be one result: just win, and win now.  But that has not been the case, and the M’s are following the same path of a team that they are clearly a superior offensive team than.

Despite playing half their games in the homer-happy Kingdome, the 1983 Mariners clearly have superior pitching than the current Mariner squad.  The team ranked seventh in the league in ERA twenty-five years ago, as opposed to the current pitching staff that is ranking 12th in the league currently.  Considering that the bullpen has done a pretty good job for the most part, it can only be concluded that the M’s atrocious starting pitching has done the team in.

Starting pitching a glaring weakness for the Mariners?  Funny, I thought they spent the off season addressing that aspect- and only that aspect- of the team….

Pointless

Seriously, what’s the point of being a Mariners fan? Devotedly following each game? Why?

“Hey! Maybe they won’t lose nearly as bad as they did yesterday! Nope, they’re losing even worse…”

Maybe the M’s will get things turned around in their next series. Against the Yankees at the Bronx. Yeah, totally. That will do it.

M’s pitching: cure for the ailing offense

No, there is no mojo returning to the M’s line-up.  By dropping yesterday’s game against the Tigers by a 12-8 score, the M’s were denied their first shot at a three-game winning streak in a month.  Still, by scoring seven runs in the last three innings against the Tigers’ questionable bullpen, the M’s did display their customary late-inning mojo, resulting in the team topping eight runs for only the fifth time this season.

Unfortunately, just like last week’s twelve-run explosion against the Rangers, yesterday’s run splurge was wasted due to a poor start by Carlos Silva, who allowed nine hits and seven runs through four innings.  After posting a 3-0 record and a 2.79 ERA through his first six starts, Silva has demonstrated the form that resulted in M’s fans gnashing their teeth upon news of his off season signing, compiling a 9.30 ERA on 33 hits over 20 innings in his past four starts, dropping three decisions.  $48 million well spent, indeed….

Silva’s poor outing was a godsend to the dormant Tigers’ offense, which had been held to 31 runs over their past ten games, getting shut out twice during that span.  After his four worthless innings, Silva was replaced after by Cha Seung Baek, who was tasked to keep the game close.  Baek was an abject failure at his task, as the TIgers’ bats ripped into him for six hits and four runs- on three home runs- over two innings, as the game was put well out of reach of the M’s late inning last gasp.

The brutal pitching performances ruined an effort that saw four multi-hit efforts from the Mariners line-up.  Ten of the thirteen hits compiled by the team, however, went for singles, as opposed to the eight extra base hits compiled by the Tiger’s present-day Murderer’s Row line-up.

If only the M’s can coordinate their hitting and pitching efforts….

Maybe that could happen tonight, with a pitching match-up pitting Jarrod Washburn against “The Gambler” Kenny Rogers.  This will be the first appearance by either pitcher against the opposing team at Comerica Park in a couple of years, with both pitcher losing the decision.  Rogers, however, has had a rough go at it so far this year, with a 6.65 ERA, 64 hits, and 24 walks allowed in 47 innings, and is coming off a start allowing seven runs and eleven hits in four innings against the Royals.  Rogers may have a 10-12 record against Seattle as opposed to Washburn’s 4-7 career record against Detroit.  But I’m feeling quietly optimistic that the Tigers used up their run quota last night.  I’m calling for the final score to be in the M’s favor by a 5-4 margin.

Has the MoJo Returned? The M’s are winning one-run games!

With Jose Lopez jumping on the first pitch offered by Heath Bell for a two-run double in the eighth inning of yesterday’s ballgame, the Mariners won their first series in nine tries.  The two runs provided a one-run margin that J.J. Putz locked down with a scoreless tie, resulting in a 3-2 Mariners victory in the series clincher.  This means that the last two one-run games the Mariners have been involved in- both yesterday’s and last week’s 4-3 win over the Rangers- have resulted in the M’s coming out on top.  The team’s record in one-run games has now improved to 3-9.  It’s still not a very good record, but this trend is encouraging.

What’s also encouraging is that over the weekend the M’s picked up back-to-back victories in games started by Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, the first time that’s happened all season.  Of course, due to the anemic run support Felix has received all season, it took Lopez’s late-inning heroics for the M’s to pull out the win, thus keeping Felix with a 2-4 record despite giving up just two runs in seven innings for his sixth quality start of the season.  Saturday’s start by Bedard, however, was tremendous, and reminded us all why the Mariners mortgaged so much in return for unquestionably the best left-handed starting pitcher in the league.  All Bedard did was limit the Padres to two runs while striking out ten over eight innings, and a two-run homer by Adrian Beltre was the support needed for a 4-2 victory.

Yes, the series win did come against the Padres, who are for some reason the M’s “natural” National League rival, so there does need to be some sort of caveat.  Still, yesterday’s win was the team’s first one this season- after passing the quarter mark- in which they scored less than four runs, indicating that the team’s planned strengths of pitching and defense may be asserting themselves.  The series loss dropped the Padres to the worst record in the majors at 16-29, while the M’s have now passed the Detroit Tigers, who are now saddled with the worst record in the American League at 17-27.

Perfect timing, then, for the M’s to hit the road for a three game series at Comerica Park, with  Tuesday’s match-up pitting Justin Verlander against Carlos Silva.  Verlander may have enjoyed success against the M’s so far in his young career, winning all four starts while posting a 2.63 ERA and a 17:4 stirkeout-to-walk ratio in 27 innings.  However, Verlander has gotten off to a horrid start to his 2008 season, dropping seven of eight decisions while posting a 6.05 ERA and a measly 1.38 (33-to-24) K-to-BB ratio in 55 innings.  Verlander has also been the victim of a complete lack of run support, with the Tigers’ supposedly dominating line-up tallying less than 2.5 runs in Verlander’s starts.  Meaning that he will drop such games as his last start, in which he held the Kansas City Royals to two runs over six innings for his second quality start of the year, only to have the Tigers shut out two-zip.  Still, the last time Verlander faced Seattle at Comerica last September, he held the M’s line-up to one run over eight innings in a 6-1 Tigers victory.

Carlos Silva, meanwhile, has a 5-3 career record in Detroit in eleven starts, with a 4.40 ERA and a 35-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just under 72 innings.  Coming off a six inning, two-run outing in his last start- the extra-inning one-run win over the Rangers- Silva has also had a dominating start the last time he faced Detroit at Comerica, tossing nearly eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 shutout victory by the Minnesota Twins over the Tigers.   While Carlos Guillen (.517 average, 1.583 OPS in 29 at-bats), Gary Sheffield (.316 average, 1.070 OPS in 19 at-bats), and Curtis Granderson (.300 average with two home runs in ten at-bats) have enjoyed success against Silva, he kept this trio in check last September, holding them to two worthless singles in eleven at-bats.

Considering that the Mariners have sent Jeff Clement back down to Triple-A Tacoma- the .397 average he posted earlier in the season didn’t have an immediate translation in the majors- the M’s should post Jose Vidro in the DH spot tomorrow night.  Vidro has hammered Verlander in a small sample size of eleven at-bats, picking up seven hits, including two doubles, for a .636 average and a 1.455 OPS.  Tomorrow’s game will be a pitching match-up decided in the late innings.  Considering the trends of the season, and the fact that J.J. has shown his dominating late-inning form, I’m going with the M’s to come out on top by a 3-2 score, resulting in the M’s first three-game winning streak in a month.  Viva la mojo!