Mets series re-cap; on to Petco!

So, nearly everything broke just right as the M’s took the first two games in the series against the Mets. Of course, the Mariners had no chance for a sweep with Miguel Batista on the mound for last night’s 8-2 loss. When you consider that the Mariners outhit the Mets last night, six base hits to New York’s five, and that the Mariners’ bullpen pitched 5 1/3 hitless, scoreless innings in relief, the reason for last night’s collapse in Win Expectancy lies solely on the shoulders of Miguel Batista, who is now half-way in his pursuit of 20 losses by running his record to 3-10. (A negative .348 win probability for Miguel yesterday? Willie Bloomquist having the highest WPA out of the M’s lineup? Really.)

Yesterday’s performance delivered final proof that there is no reason for Batista to continue to be on the Marienrs’ roster. None. Some faint hope that he will hearken back to his 16-win performance from last season or his 31-save 2005 season. The fact is that with Batista, you have a 37-year old washed up below league-average pitcher, who never had dominating stuff, relying instead on guile and ability to mix up pitches for whatever success he’s had in the major leagues. At this point in his career, the only interesting thing about Batista is that he writes crime novels, and that’s not enough to justify him trotting out to the mound to deliver a stinker of a performance and lose every fifth day. Seriously, its time to drop his dead weight ass and call up Rich Dorman or Ryan Feierabend or anybody from the Triple-A roster who could  deliver league-average innings more cheaply while offering the ability to not deliver a guaranteed loss every fifth day. Jesus, in Batista’s twenty appearances so far this season, the M’s are pulling in a .350 winning percentage! There is no more sure fire way for the Mariners to lose than to have Batista be on the mound at any point in the ballgame, whether its starting or relieving, as we learned last Saturday against the Braves.

Just DFA Batista’s sorry ass… now!

Whew. That was my little rant. I feel much better now. As for the rest of the series with the Mets, upon reflection it appears that the Mets’ struggles this season may not have been Willie Randolph’s fault. As for the Mariners? Well, maybe it was due to John McLaren’s abilities as manager that led to this horrendous season for the M’s. Undoubtedly, it was impressive for the Mariners to keep the team that was one game away from the 2006 World Series to just two runs over the first two games, but it must be admitted that it was blind luck that helped the Mariners garner the 5-2 victory against Johann Santana in the first game. And I mean that literally, as Felix Hernandez hit a grand slam with his eyes closed, right after an error by Mets third baseman David Wright loaded the bases.

As for the second game, Jarrod Washburn must’ve looked on with envy as the Mariners tallied up eleven runs in support of R.A. Dickey in an 11-0 blowout, securing the eighth series for the Mariners so far this season.

Now, after today’s travel day, the M’s head to San Deigo for a three game series against the Padres, Seattle’s “natural rival,” at Petco Park. The current scheduled pitching match-ups for the Padres series:

Washburn (2-7, 5.52, 5.9 K/ 9 IP) vs. Randy Wolf (5-6, 4.09, 8.3 K/ 9 IP)

Carlos Silva (3-9, 5.92, 3.5 K/ 9 IP) vs. Cha Seung Baek (!) (1-2, 5.11, 6.2 K/ 9 IP in five games, four starts with the Padres)

Dickey (2-3, 4.79, 6.3 K/ 9 IP)- though there is talk that Mr. Glass will start Sunday instead- vs. last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy (5-4, 2.77, 8.9 K/ 9 IP)

The M’s may have taken two of three from San Diego last month, but the prognosis for this weekend does not look good.  To begin with, as Silva is taking the mound on Saturday, that’s a guaranteed loss right there.  (Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if Baek tosses a four-hit shutout.)  And considering that Peavy is unbeaten in four decisions in five career starts against the M’s, Seattle has its work cut out for them on Sunday, regardless of whether Dickey or Bedard takes the mound.  That leaves Friday as the team’s best chance to pick up a win, but considering the abysmal 3.86 run support Washburn has received this season I wouldn’t count on anything.  Indeed, in three out of his last five starts, Washburn has tossed six innings and allowed less than two runs, only to be rewarded with a no decision in each outing.  Considering that Washburn has been hampered by non-existent run support for a few years now, this isn’t a short-term trend, and it should be expected for the M’s bats to struggle tomorrow against Randy Wolf.

But, hey, the optimistic side of my nature is going to defeat my inner cynic.  I’m picking the M’s to come out on top Friday by a 5-4 score.  The rest of the weekend?  Not so good….

Braves series re-cap, now it’s on to Shea

As expected, the M’s took one of three from the Braves, taking advantage of their best chance on Friday to walk away with a win.

Of course, Friday’s win had more to do with Brave starter Jorge Campillo’s sudden loss of control than anything provided by Mr. Bedard, who was forced out with back spasms after three innings and 36 pitches. Seriously, is Erik Bedard the personification of Mr. Glass? What’s next, a hyperextended toe? To be fair, maybe back spasms are contagious, and Erik caught them from Brandon Morrow.

Now it appears that Mr. Glass will miss his start in the series against the Mets, with Miguel Batista starting in Bedard’s stead. Which is great, because there is nothing quite like rewarding Batista, who blew a potential second win of the series by not getting anybody out in the ninth inning of a 5-4 loss than by handing Miguel a fill-in start in the rotation. You know, just so the Mets can pound the tar out of Miguel’s offerings and put the M’s in a 7-0 hole by the second inning. SIgh….

Seriously, there is no reason for Batista to be on the M’s roster. None. He is as washed up as last night’s dishes. Rich Dorman just spun 7 2/3 innings of two-hit, eight-strikeout ball for Tacoma against the Portland Beavers. Certainly Dorman wouldn’t be able to make a start this weekend in Queens. But it’s time to jettison Batista to open up roster space for a career minor leaguer he would be looking to leave a positive mark other than allowing teams to jump out to an early lead, or letting late-inning leads slip away.

Anyway, here are the pitching match-up between Jim Riggleman’s Mariners and Jerry Manuel’s Mets:

Felix Hernandez (6-5, 2.87, 7.9 K/ 9 IP) vs. Johann Santana (7-5, 3.04, 8.2 K/ 9 IP)

R. A. Dickey (1-3, 5.77, 6.3 K/ 9 IP) vs. Oliver Perez (5-4, 5.06, 7.5 K/ 9 IP)

Miguel Batista (as of right now) (3-9, 6.26, 5.6 K/ 9 IP) vs. John Maine (7-5, 3.78, 7.8 K/ 9 IP)

A bunch of things have to break just right for the M’s to have a chance at being competitive in any of these three games. First, the M’s offense is going to have to stand up to the challenge of the Mets’ trio of hard throwers. Felix has a four-game winning streak in his last four starts on the line, but for that to continue uninterrupted tonight the M’s batters will have to pile up runs against Johann. Its not as if it can’t be done- Ichiro and Raul Ibanez have combined for 24 hits in 63 at-bats for a .381 average, with two triples and a home run. Johann may have struck out Richie Sexson nine times in 20 at-bats, but three of Sexson’s five career hits off Johann have gone for extra bases. However, the 7-1 lifetime record Johann has compiled against Seattle, means that the Mariners have their work cut out for them tonight.

As for the other two games, if the M’s are able to batter Oliver Perez around and if R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball is working- and those are two big ifs- they have a shot at winning tomorrow night’s game. As for Wednesday’s, I don’t even know why they’re bothering to play the game.

Tonight’s game will be a doozy of a pitching match-up between the two Venezuelans, with both Felix and Johann rising to the challenge. However, expect Felix’s winning streak to come to an end, as the game will be decided in the later innings by the teams’ respective bullpens. Look for yet another one-run loss, with the Mets topping the M’s by a 5-4 score.

Most hilarious Willie Bloomquist interview, ever

First, Bavasi.  Second, McLaren.  Next… Bloomquist?

I guess ol’ Willie Ballgame is chomping at the bit to be traded to the National League, saying:

“Absolutely. I hear it from a lot of people. I hear it from a lot of players: ‘Man, you belong in the National League. You’d be in there almost every day in some form.’ But right now, I’m a Seattle Mariner. I signed a contract to do the best I can for this team. For me to start letting my thoughts wander to what it would be like to be in the National League, it probably wouldn’t be fair to myself or this team.”

Seriously, what?

Braves series preview

Here are the pitching match-ups for this weekend’s interleague series against the Braves in Atlanta:

Tonight, Erik Bedard (4-4. 4.14 ERA, 8.3 K/ 9 IP) vs. reliever-turned-starter Jorge Campillo (2-1, 2.17 ERA, 7.5 K/ 9 IP)

Saturday, Jarrod Washburn (2-7, 5.83, 5.3 k/ 9 IP) vs. Jair Jurrjens (7-3, 3.43, 6.6 K/ 9 IP)

Sunday, Carlos Silva (3-8, 5.79, 3.6 K/ 9 IP) vs. Tim Hudson (7-5, 3.17, 5.5 K/ 9 IP)

It’s pretty clear that tonight will be their best opportunity for the Mariners to pick up one win in this series for new manager Jim Riggleman. Tonight will be the first appearances by the starting pitchers against their opponents, as Bedard has never made an appearance against the Braves in any Baltimore-Atlanta match-ups.

A key question will be how Bedard fares against switch-hitter Chipper Jones, who has been kept hitless in six career at-bats versus the M’s, but who is making a serious charge at a .400 batting average. With Bedard tossing from the south side of the mound, Chipepr will probably be batting right handed against Erik. That fits in well with Bedards’s splits, as right handers are batting forty points lower against Erik than left handers. On the other side, Chipper is hitting slightly beter against lefties (.404 to .388 ) with a little less power (.953 OPS versus southpaws, 1.212 against righties). Regardless, Bedard- and the rest of the M’s pitching staff for that matter- will have their work cut out for them.

I have no idea how Campillo will fare against the M’s. Campillo, a former Mariners’ commodity cast aside in yet another brilliant Bavasi-inspired move, has had a career re-emergence with the Braves, which is a story we’ve all heard before. After dominating out of the bullpen for much of the first half of the season, Campillo’s success has continued in the starting rotation, as he is coming off an eight-inning, two-run performance in a hard-luck loss to the Angels.

For the Mariners to have a chance at their one-shot-in-three games tonight, they need to get to Campillo early and keep the game close. Bedard will more than likely give up a handful of runs, but it is adamant that M’s stay within reach, or eke out ahead. Because as much as Seattle has struggled to win one-run contests (currently holding an 8-14 record on the year), the Braves have been much worse (3-19). That’s the formula for the M’s to pull out a win tonight.

But who I am trying to kid? Look for the M’s to drop tonight’s game by a 4-3 score, en route to yet another three-game sweep….

McLaren dismissed

Well it happened.  To the surprise of absolutely nobody.

Hours after losing their fifth of their past six series by an 8-3 margin to the Florida Marlins, the Seattle Mariners distributed a press release stating that John McLaren, by all accounts the “nicest manager in baseball”, has been relieved of duties.

Former major league manager Jim Riggleman, who served as a bench coach under McLaren, now takes the reins of the floundering franchise.  Devoid of any “interim” label, Riggleman becomes the 13th full-time manager in the franchise’s history.  With a career managerial record of .448, Riggleman would be right at home at the helm of a franchise that has an all-time .438 winning percentage.  (Minus the Piniella years, of course.)  Riggleman guided the Sammy Sosa-led 1998 Cubs to a Wild Card finish in 1998, only to have the team unceremoniously dumped in that year’s National League Division Series.  But other than that, Riggy has guided a number of underperforming stinker teams.

Sigh.  The more things change, the more things stay the same.

First Reed, now Johjima taking practice at first base

Last week, outfielder Jeremy Reed was spotted taking ground balls at first base.  Now, after this week’s call-up of Jeff Clement, erstwhile starting catcher Kenji Johjima has been spotted taking practice at first base as well.

Does this activity at the keystone infield position indicate an eventual release of Richie Sexson?  Probably.

Top 10 GM candidates you’ve never heard of

From the Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll, the following is a list of the Top 10 General Manager candidates you’ve never heard of. Let’s keep this list handy and refer to it as the search is undertaken to replace Bill Bavasi. That way, if names of propsective candidates interviewed are on this list, we can gauge if Lincoln & Co. are serious about improving the sorry state of this franchise or not.

UPDATE:  Not intending to step on the Baseball Prospectus’ toes, I thought it would be appropriate to post the piece as long as I included the author’s credit.  However, as stated in the comments, it is available only through a subscription service.  As such, I’ve gutted the content of the piece, and for those who are interested in finding more about the following list of executives , you are on your own to find out more information.  Better yet, just subscribe to Baseball Prospectus where you can receive a boatload of inside baseball information.

The Next Ten Top GM Candidates by Will Carroll

1. Jed Hoyer (Assistant GM, Red Sox)

2. Jack Zduriencik (Scouting Director, Brewers)

3. Rick Hahn (Assistant GM, White Sox)

4. Mike Rizzo (Assistant GM/Scouting, Nationals)

5. Tony LaCava (Assistant GM, Blue Jays)

6. Mike Chernoff (Director of Baseball Operations, Indians)

7. John Ricco (Assistant GM, Mets)

8. John Abbamondi (Assistant GM, Cardinals)

9. Thad Levine (Assistant GM, Rangers)

10. Peter Woodfork (Assistant GM, Diamondbacks)

Other Names to Remember: Damon Oppenheimer, Tony Bernazard, Jerry DiPoto, Kim Ng, Dick Tidrow.

Will Carroll is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Will by clicking here or click here to see Will’s other articles.

All hail the Mighty Bloomquist!

Yesterday, I wrote:

if today’s game is going to be a close, well-pitched, low-scoring, one-run affair with the Mariners kept to four runs or less, their odds of winning are pretty much nil.

Well, almost all of that turned out to be true.  Except that the Mariners were able to top the four-run mark, and thus rode a brilliant pitching performance from Felix Hernandez into a 5-4 victory over the Fish, thus ending the four game losing streak.  Felix also put a stop to the M’s eight-game losing streak at Safeco, as the Mariners picked up their first home victory for the month of June (!!) as Felix won his fourth consecutive start.

Without a doubt, Felix’s dominating pitching performance set the tone for last night’s game.  He had everything working for him- fastball, breaking pitches, off-speed, which resulted in a number of ridiculous swings by the Marlins, who came into the game with one of the best offenses in the National League, ranking fourth in runs scored and first in home runs.  Felix’s final line included nine strikeouts over seven innings, and his nine-pitch and out performance in the fourth inning (something that Randy Johnson never did for the Mariners) only cements Felix’s burgeoning legend.  Coupled with 1.2 innings of scoreless hitless relief- with four of the five outs coming on behalf of Ks tossed by Sean Green, Arthur Rhodes, and Brandon Morrow who was dealing some serious high heat in the ninth inning- the M’s wrapped up their third consecutive one-run win.

Despite the fine pitching, further credit needs to be given to the efforts of Willie Bloomquist, the much-maligned utility fielder who was getting a rare start in center field now that Ichiro has been moved back to his natural right field position.  Sure, Bloomquist may have played Luis Gonzalez’s seventh inning double off the base of the wall, allowing Gonzalez to take third and score the Marlins’ fourth run on an eventual sacrifice fly.  On the other hand, Willie picked up two hits in four at-bats, continuing a streak in which he has collected five hits in his last eleven at-bats.  Willie also probably saved the game with a heads-up play on Jeremy Hermida’s bases-loaded single in the sixth inning, charging hard and getting the ball back into the infield to prevent Alfredo Amezaga from scoring from second.  If the Marlins pick up that extra run, we’re looking at a possible 5-5 tie heading into extra innings, wiith a very good chance of the M’s coming out on the wrong side of yet another one-run loss, and Felix having nothing to show for his performance.

Instead, Willie saved the game and preserved the win.  Yay Willie!  Let’s give it up for the Bloomer!

In other news, Yuniesky Betancourt got down a sacrifice bunt, which led to the manufacture of a run.  Yay Yuni!

The team is playing for a series win tonight, as top Marlins pitching prospect Ryan Tucker faces off against R. A. Dickey.  Both pitchers got knocked around pretty bad in their last starts, with Tucker giving up five runs in seven innings against the Rays in a 7-3 loss, while Dickey allowed seven runs in less than two innings in last Friday’s debacle against the Nationals.  Which ever pitcher has recovered from shock the fastest stands the best chance of winning.  And as Dickey’s soft tossed knuckle balls doesn’t take much to rebound from, why couldn’t he pull this win out?  I’m calling for the M’s to actually win the series, coming out on top tonight by a 6-5 score.

High Desert Mavericks: Success at High-A

Unlike their parent club, the M’s California League affiliate, the High Desert Mavericks, have ripped off a current four game winning streak, and have come out on top in six of their past seven games.  Four Mavericks had multiple hits as they roughed up Lancaster starter Christopher Province to score seven runs- six earned- on eleven hits in five innings, only to survive a seven spot posted by Lancaster in the seventh inning as the Mavs held on for a wild 8-6 victory.

Mariners’ shortstop of the future Carlos Triunfel did not see any action in yesterday’s game, as his recent poor performance has not matched the team’s success.  Triunfel has picked up just five hits in his last 41 at bats, while striking out eight times to two walks.  Luckily, Geraldo Avila has picked up the slack, with a .303 average his last ten games, including two triples and a home run.  Closer Aaron Cotter has also been dominating lately, with a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and four saves over his last 12.2 innings, and picking up saves in the team’s last three save opportunities.

Sadly, these players are years to offer contributions at the major league level, rather than, say, tomorrow….

Hey M’s fans: Mariners are losers- get over it all ready!

So, after the M’s bid adieu to former GM Bill Bavasi yesterday, I joked to my friends that the Mariners would reel off an eleven-game winning streak.  (Which would put them just ten games below .500!)  Of course, the M’s promptly dropped the first game of the Marlins series by a 6-1 score, extending their home losing streak to eight games, the longest such streak in twelve years.

I guess the team celebrating their independence from Bavasi by reeling off a string of victories will have to be postponed.  Maybe until next week or something.  I guess the more things change, the more things will simply stay the same.

Yesterday, the M’s were shut out by Marlins’ left hander Andrew Miller, who stymied the M’s, allowing just one run on six hits through seven innings.  It seems like it would be almost ironically cruel to point out that Bavasi got fired on the same day that Miller shut down the M’s line-up in his first career outing against the Mariners.  Miller was the top pitching prospect in the 2006 amateur draft, but signability issues dropped Miller from the No. 1 spot that Miller was expected to be picked at.  With the fifth pick in that year’s draft, the Mariners had the ability to grab Miller, but as they were leery of Miller’s contract demands, they bypassed Miller in favor of Brandon Morrow, allowing the Tigers to pluck the North Carolina product.

This is not intended to be a knock against Morrow, who has showed flashes of brilliance in the late-inning spot and may eventually be a poor man’s Northwest version of Joba Chamberlain if the M’s decide to put him into the rotation.  Indeed, Morrow struck out the side with his high heat in a scoreless ninth inning yesterday.  But he wasn’t tying the Marlins’ bats into knots for seven innings as Miller did against the Marienrs yesterday.  (Admittedly, Miller was able to enjoy a dominant performance due to the fact that he was facing off against the weakest offense in the American League.)

Just how much of a good pitcher Morrow will turn out to be for the Mariners depends to be seen.   However, in the 2006 draft, the M’s had a chance to draft a great pitching prospect in Miller, and the Bavasi-led front office allowed Miller to slip through their fingers.  That’s okay, though, because the Mariners ex-GM had the wherewithal to sign the “top free agent” on last year’s market in Carlos Silva, who yesterday allowed three runs in 4.2 innings as he extends his winless streak to eleven starts, not having picked up a victory since April 17th.  The context for yesterday’s game explains why Bavasi is no longer the Mariners’ GM, while the Mariners’ offense goes 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position as little run support was once again offered for their pitchers.

There has been much gnashing of the teeth lately as plenty of Mariners fans have bemoaned the incredibly horrid season 2008 has devolved to.  (Considering that the first official day of summer occurs next week, it’s hard to beleive that the Mariners are 20 games below .500 before summer even officially starts.)  Maybe we got our hopes up by last season’s misleading 88-win season, and all the pundits picking the M’s to mount a serious challenge for the division title this year.  But c’mon, folks.  We’re talking the Seattle Mariners here!  Losing is part of the franchise’s DNA!  Look at the team’s franchise encyclopedia page on baseball-reference.com.  There’s a reason why the club’s all-time winning percentage is .471.  M’s fans who have climbed aboard the bandwagon in recent years may have been unduly influenced by the team’s streak of success from 1995 to 2003.  But those years were an aberration for an otherwise dismal team that is best known as being the punchline for the joke “What has eighteen legs and lives in the cellar of the American League West?”  Indeed, if you subtract the team’s 802-637 record (and .558 winning percentage) from that span of seven years, you’re left with a franchise all-time winning percentage of .437, which translates to 71 wins over a 162 game season.  And that mark is much better than the pace the team is currently on for this season.

Sigh.  Felix Hernandez is taking the mound tonight, so the M’s might have a chance to win.  But smart money should go on the Marlins.  I’m picking the Fish to win, by a 3-2 score.  I mean, if today’s game is going to be a close, well-pitched, low-scoring, one-run affair with the Mariners kept to four runs or less, their odds of winning are pretty much nil.